Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131347
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
747 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

UPDATED TO TAKE DOWN FROST ADVISORY AND TO TWEAK SKY COVER GRIDS
TO REFLECT CURRENT STRATUS COVERAGE. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN
EL PASO COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING....HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS HAVE KEPT READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS PUEBLO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES AS OF 3 AM.  WITH A FEW MORE
HOURS OF COOLING TO GO THIS MORNING...WILL KEEP CURRENT FROST
ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH 8 AM WITH MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE FROST
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY. FROST MAY BE MORE PATCHY IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PUEBLO AND CROWLEY COUNTIES.

STRATUS HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF ERODING ACROSS FREMONT
COUNTY...AND LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT BY MID MORNING...AND BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND NICELY OVER THOSE OF
YESTERDAY....HOWEVER LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER MAY SLOW WARMING SOME FOR PLACES LIKE KPUB TO KLAA.  HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES THERE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE VALUES.  THE TWO
DIVIDES (PALMER AND RATON) SHOULD MIX OUT OF THE COLD AIR
EARLIEST...SO THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A QUICKER WARM UP ONCE LOW
CLOUDS MIX OUT.

OUT WEST...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS
SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
RES MODELS HAVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY.  LCLS
ARE HIGH...AND PRECIP WATERS ARE QUITE LOW (.25 TO .40)...SO MAIN
THREAT TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND LOCAL GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND A NICE SEPT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND
POPS...PRIMARILY EARLY IN THE LONGER TERM AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE
IN THE LONGER TERM.

COMPILATIONS OF RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO DURING THE LONGER
TERM AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO FROM
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING IS
ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE MOVING ACROSS FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGHING THEN
RETURNS FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH A
SERIES OF PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE GENERALLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS OF THE
LONGER TERM...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS.

FINALLY...IN ADDITION TO BASICALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT
WINDS...PROJECT THAT OUTSIDE OF MONDAY(WHERE BELOW SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED)...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE MID
TO LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2014

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THIS MORNING UNDER STRATUS...WITH LOWEST CIGS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THE TERRAIN.
KCOS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS...AND MAY EVEN FLIRT WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS IF FOG DEVELOPS TOWARDS SUNRISE.  KPUB IS MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS.  SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT
TOWARDS MORNING AND CIGS WILL ERODE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOWER
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AS SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS
RECEDES TO THE EAST. SHOULD SEE CIGS BREAK AT KCOS AND KPUB BETWEEN
15-16Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KALS MAY STILL HAVE A WINDOW OF IFR CIGS/VIS WITH SOME PATCHY
STRATUS/FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.  BUT IF THIS OCCURS...CIGS SHOULD
BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
DAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS
UNDER 15 KTS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT



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