Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182149
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
349 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Generally Warm & Dry Next 24 Hours...

Upper ridge and dry westerly flow will continue over the forecast
area tonight.  On Thursday, the weather pattern will start to modify
a little as a weak disturbance over southern Nevada this afternoon
shifts northeastward into the area.  The disturbance will bring a
gradual increase in mid and upper level moisture to the region
overnight. On Thursday, moisture may thicken enough to bring a few
spotty showers to the mountains by late in the day.  However,
nothing too widespread or intense is expected.  Temperatures will
continue above average with afternoon highs on Thursday generally 5
or more degrees above normals.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Overall, low-grade to nil pops in combination with basically near
to above mid to latter October climatological average temperatures
are anticipated over the forecast district during the longer term.
In addition, localized elevated fire weather concerns and gusty
winds are also meteorological concerns at times.

Initially, a weak upper disturbance(capable of generating light
precipitation(under .05")...over primarily higher terrain western
locations) should impact the forecast district Thursday night.

Then, basically dry and gusty southwesterly upper flow should be
noted from Friday into Friday evening in advance of next
potentially stronger upper system from later Friday evening into
Saturday. In addition, a north-northeasterly surface surge moves
across eastern sections of the CWA by Saturday morning.

At this time, total precipitation amounts under .35" may be noted
over a few locations with snow amounts under 3 inches possible
over select central mountain locations from later Friday evening
into later Saturday. Please not that many lower elevations may
not receive any measurable precipitation with this event. Also,
localized elevated fire weather concerns will be a possibility
Saturday afternoon over portions of the San Luis Valley. As
always, WFO Pueblo will monitor closely and issue meteorological
highlights as needed/warranted.

Then, a return to a basically dry northwesterly upper flow
pattern is anticipated over the forecast district from
Saturday night into next Wednesday in combination with another
north-northeasterly surface surge by Monday evening. Overall,
gusty winds at times as well as near to above seasonal
temperatures should be experienced over the forecast district
during this time- frame.

At this time, it appears that the warmest temperatures during
the longer term over the forecast district should be realized
Friday, Monday and Wednesday with Friday expected to be the
warmest day, while coolest temperature readings should be
experienced Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 349 PM MDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Dry, westerly flow across flight area overnight.  On Thursday, a
weak disturbance currently over southern Nevada, will move northeast
into the flight area.  The disturbance will bring increasing amounts
of mid and upper level moisture to the region but very little low
level moisture.  It`s possible that a few spotty showers could
develop over the mountains in the afternoon.  However, nothing too
widespread or intense is expected.  Generally VFR next 24 hours with
the potential for a few spots of MVFR/IFR conditions in any showers
that materialize over the mountains Thursday afternoon.  For the
KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals, VFR expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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