Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 141724
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1124 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO GRIDS AND BLENDED INTO REST OF
FORECAST. ALSO...UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT
CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS TO FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

STORM SYSTEM EXITING STATE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OF
THE FORECAST DISTRICT THIS MORNING...BEFORE A DRYING TREND SETS IN
FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AS STORM EXITS COLORADO THIS
MORNING...PROJECT THAT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS MORNING(PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS) WILL GIVE WAY TO DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW SEASONAL MID APRIL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE WINDS
WILL BE ON AN OVERALL DECREASING TREND DURING THE SHORT-TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

...MORE SNOW AND RAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FLATTENS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PAC NW COAST
TRANSLATES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WESTERLY FLOW AND DEVELOPING LEE
TROUGH ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WARM
UP WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...40S
AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MAINLY 30S AT THE PEAKS.
INCREASING MOISTURE WITHIN THE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD...WITH LEE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OWNING FOR GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE GREAT BASIN BROAD TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH CONTINUES INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SFC-H7 FLOW
BECOMING EAST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE H7 WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY BEHIND PASSING TROUGH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POPS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. LATEST MODELS INDICATING THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS
COLD (-4C TO -9C AT H7) AS THE SYSTEM THAT PASTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY BEING TIED TO OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES ON COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS
MID MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO STAYED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ON
THURSDAY...THOUGH THE LATEST ECMWF IS A TAD FASTER WITH WARMING AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND PASSING TROUGH.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE STATE. LATEST EXTENDED RANGE
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS MORE PACIFIC ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

SPRING STORM SYSTEM HAS JUST ABOUT DEPARTED ENTIRELY WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
SOME LINGERING PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS...AND POSSIBLY A LIGHT
FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...AND EVEN PARTS OF THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY. ALL
AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR STATUS AFTER 18Z. THE KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS TAF SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR STATUS AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW



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