Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131120
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Currently, it is mostly cloudy over the CWA.  Upslope flow is
producing low clouds and some light fog along the interstate 25
corridor and eastern mountain.  Webcams are not showing much
snow falling in our CWA at this time, and radar showing precipitation
northwest Colorado drifting to the north. Weak echos over northwest
New Mexico are moving northward into Colorado.

Today and tonight...Upper low off the southern California coast will
slowly move to the southeast.  Broad southerly flow aloft is brining
moisture northward into Colorado.  Radar echoes over northwest New
Mexico suggest some light precipiation is starting to move northward
into Colorado.  Did not change the highlights in effect.  Expect
snow to gradually increase during the day with heavier snow
developing overnight and Saturday.  With southerly flow aloft, the
heaviest snow will be over the eastern San Juan Mountains.  The
mountains of Lake and Chaffee Counties are not orographically
favored with souther flow aloft, and will maintain advisory to these
regions.  On the plains, the low clouds and some patchy fog will
continue through at least mid morning.  As cold air becomes
shallower, lower clouds will gradually dissipate.  With southerly
flow, lower clouds will linger the longest in the Colorado Springs
area.  By later in the evening, some light precipitation could
spread into the eastern plains, especially closer to the Kansas
border. Bufkit sounding still show warm layer aloft over the plains
with a shallow area of colder air.  Some light precipiation could
move northward over the far eastern plains later tonight, and
included some light snow and freezing drizzle in the grids for these
locations.  --PGW--

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Sloppy wet winter weather system to affect region this weekend
into early next week...

An upper closed low will bring a mix of winter weather to the region
this weekend into early next week. The primary concern with this
system will be the potential for freezing precipitation (freezing
drizzle and freezing rain). Otherwise, some wet snow will occur over
the plains, mainly sunday night into Monday. This system is quite
warm and their is not much of the way of wind with it. Impact-wise,
the main concern is the freezing precip potential, otherwise the
impacts may not be all that great due to the lack of wind and cold
air with this system.

Saturday...

Cloudy and cool on this day. Main concern this day will be potential
for some freezing drizzle over parts of the plains during the
morning. There may also be some areas of fog on the plains early in
the morning.

Models at this time do not show much in the way of significant precip
on the plains during the daylight hours, with the NAM coming in dry
for the most part. Upper low at this time will still be way south of
the region down in old Mexico south of Yuma, and relatively mild
southerly flow will be advecting into the region. The best chance of
heavier precip over the fcst area will across the San Juans.

Max temps this day will be seasonable with 40s to around 50
generally west of the I-25 corridor, with mid to upper 30s over the
eastern plains. Mtns will be in the 20s.

Sunday...

Lower atmosphere across the plains very early Sunday morning becomes
more saturated so fog potential (possibly quite dense) will be on
the increase along with the threat of freezing precip, including
freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. Travel across the plains
may become rather difficult due to the freezing precip and dense fog
Sat nite into Sunday,

By late morning Sunday most areas will likely get above freezing so
freezing precip at lower elevations will likely come to an end.

Overall, precip will be on the increase by afternoon Sunday with the
precip increasing slowly from south to north as upper low gets closer
to the region. This system should be in far east central NM by 00Z
Sunday. The best chance of heavier snow on this day will likely be
across the Southern Sangre de Cristo mountain region and higher
elevations of the Raton Mesa region. Steady wet cool rain will
likely move into the lower elevations along the CO/NM border by
afternoon. This precip may change into freezing rain in some areas
after sunset, especially over the far east plains. The freezing
rain may be significant.

Monday...

During the early morning hours of Monday, colder air will wrap up
into the system and all the precip should gradually switch to snow
over all of the plains. This is shown by a majority of model
soundings. Winds will pick up a bit from the north and deep upslope
will develop across the lower elevations. By 12Z Monday, northeast
700 mb winds will be over the plains with winds in the 15 to 25 knt
range. A band of wrap-around snow will likely be ongoing across
most of the lower elevations. At this time the best and heaviest
snow will fall over the far east plains as the low may be a bit too
far east for significant heavy precip to fall along the populate I-
25 corridor region. The only exception to this may be the area south
of Pueblo to the NM border which may see some heavier amounts of
precip Sunday night into early Monday.

As mentioned above, this system does not look all that cold and not
much of the way of wind is fcst with it, so from an impact
perspective, there may not be all that much with it as all the
precip will likely be a beneficial wet snow. Low temps early Monday
morning will are fcst to only be in the upper 20s to L30s, with
highs on Monday in the 30s. With relatively warm temps, there may
not be all that much accumulation on the roadway surfaces. The only
concern I have is that I cannot rule out some heavier banded snow
which then may cause some roadway accumulation problems on roadway
surfaces.

I should note that if the system should track farther to the west,
then the impact on the COS and PUB areas may be a bit higher
(snowfall accum-wise). Also, if the storm does track farther west,
then the max temps on Monday will be lower than currently fcst. If
the storm tracks farther east, then the impacts over the region will
be less.

Tuesday through late week...

Flow returns to zonal with another trough moving into the region at
the end of the week. Expect seasonable temps most of the week with
dry conditions on the plains and increasing snow chances by mid week
in the mtns.

Summary...

No hilites are being issued at this time. Hilites will likely be
needed for the plains for freezing precip, especially for Sat nite
and into Sunday morning time frame. A more significant snow threat
will develop over the plains Sunday night into Monday morning. Dense
fog may also be an issue over the lower elevations Sat nite/early
Sunday. This storm will not have much of an impact over the mtns,
except for the Wet mtns and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains
Sunday nite into Monday. As is always the case, the exact track of
the storm will be critical on seeing how much 9and type) of precip
falls over the region. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Low clouds and some patchy fog have developed at KCOS and KPUB with
upslope flow.  With weakening upslope flow, anticipate lower clouds
dissipating by mid to late morning.  With southerly flow, lower
clouds will linger the longest at KCOS.  Tonight, upslope flow will
become shallower and not anticipating redevelopment of lower clouds.

At KALS, expect VFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PGW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PGW



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