Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171848
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1248 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR TODAY WITH SOME OF THE MORNING
MODEL DATA COMING IN. ALSO...LOADED IN THE LATEST SET OF
OBSERVATIONS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TODAY WHILE COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUS EXPECT A SEASONABLY COOL DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH BREEZES MAY INCREASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO TIGHTEN LATE IN THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
FROM THE BAJA INTO AZ...THEN INTO NW NM EARLY SAT MORNING. SYSTEM
MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SAN JUANS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY
WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.
SUSPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...AS BETTER FORCING
REMAINS SOUTH ACROSS NM. CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE PATCHY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL TO FAIRLY COOL VALUES...WITH A RETURN OF
READINGS IN THE 30S ACROSS SOME SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR
THE EXTENDED WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES UNDERCUTTING
THE UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND...THEN POTENTIALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EASILY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY AS AN UPPER
CIRCULATION JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE BAJA REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE AND COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE SW MTS AS EARLY AS SAT MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
CONVECTION FOR MAINLY THE CONTDVD AND SRN MTS BY SAT AFTERNOON.
WITH THE SRLY TRAJECTORY...BY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BIT OF
CAPE TO WORK WITH SO COULD EVEN SEE A FEW TS ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY SILENT POPS FOR THE
ERN PLAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION.

NEXT SYSTEM IS NOW WELL OFF THE CA COAST...BUT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY
BEHIND THE SAT SYSTEM AND PROVIDE SOME WEAK UPPER SUPPORT TO THE
LIFT GENERATED BY A WEAK FRONTAL PUSH OVER THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE
OVR THE MTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN RANGES SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THANKS TOT HE WEAK UPSLOPE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY MILD FOR MID OCTOBER...IN THE LOW-MID 70S FOR THE PLAINS
AND 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY...AND
KEEP THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

THIRD SYSTEM WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND BY WED MORNING...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA FOR WE AND
WED NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY AND BE
OUT OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
STRONG IN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS...BUT BOTH MODELS
DELIVER A DECENT SHOT OF QPF TO THE AREA THANKS TO A MONSOONAL-
LIKE TAP OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS FINALLY FALL BACK TO NR
SEASONAL NORMS AND POTENTIALLY COOLER BY THURSDAY. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS OVER COLORADO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL WORK
NORTHWARD UNDER THE RIDGE LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING ISOLATED -SHRA
TO THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS AFTER 06Z...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS BECOMING OBSCURED BY 12Z. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL WORK GRADUALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 50
CORRIDOR THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW



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