Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 192156

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Dry northwest flow aloft will be over the area tonight and will
begin increasing thru the day Mon.  Ahead of an approaching weather
disturbance, moisture and clouds will begin increasing along the
ContDvd Mon afternoon.  It is possible that toward evening a few
light showers could develop over the central CO mtns, but at this
time the forecast models keep the area dry.  Some breezy conditions
are expected Mon afternoon, mainly from around the I-25 corridor and
westward.  Above average temps can be expected on Mon with highs in
the 60s over most of the southeast plains, and in the 50s in the San
Luis Valley and the upper Arkansas River valley.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

Monday night-Tuesday night...Northwest flow aloft increases across
the region Monday night, as a short wave translating across the
Northern Great Basin continues to dig across the Northern Rockies.
The latest NAM and GFS runs continue to dig the system out across
the Northern and Central High Plains through the day Tuesday,
whereas the 12Z run of the EC is a tad further south and west with
the system, digging it across the state. All solutions indicate
increasing chances of orographic snow across the northern and
central mountains of Colorado Monday night, with generally light
accumulations of 1 to 4 inches possible across the central
mountains through the day Tuesday, with greatest amounts north of
Cottonwood Pass.  The further south and west solution of the EC
brings enough moisture and lift to produce showers across the Pikes
Peak and Palmer Dvd region late Monday night through early Tuesday
morning. Since the EC solution is a departure from its previous
runs, have stayed with model consensus, keeping pops and qpf
confined to the central mountains at this time. At any rate, will
see breezy west to northwest winds across the area Monday night
through Tuesday morning, as the system and associated cold front
move across the area, keeping overnight temps on the mild side and
cooler temperatures areawide on Tuesday, with highs expected to fall
back to around seasonal levels.

Wednesday-Friday...Latest models continue to indicate a dry and warm
pattern in the offing through at least the early part of the
Thanksgiving Holiday, with long wave ridging building across Desert
SW and into the Rockies through Thursday. This will lead dry weather
across south central and southeast Colorado, with high temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday warming back to well above seasonal levels in
the 60s to lower 70s across the lower elevations and into the 40s
and 50s across the higher terrain, warmest on Thanksgiving day. High
temperatures will be nearing records for both the day of November
23rd and for the Thanksgiving Holiday, with current records at ALS
of 64F (1954) for Nov 23rd and 61F (2006) for the Thanksgiving
Holiday. Records at COS are 69F (1925) for Nov 23rd and 70F (2011)
for the Thanksgiving Holiday, and at PUB are 73F (1925) for Nov 23rd
and 76F (1910) for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

Models continue to indicate increasing westerly flow aloft on
Friday, as Eastern Pacific energy translates across the Northern
Tier of States, leading to another warm and dry day across the
area for Friday.

Friday night-Sunday...The 12Z run of the GFS has come back more in
line with the current and previous runs of the EC, which digs the
Northern Tier short wave across the Upper Midwest through the day
Saturday. This sends a backdoor front across the state Friday night,
with dry, but cooler weather expected on Saturday, with the cooling
most notable across the eastern plains. Upper level ridging
continues to build back across the Rockies Saturday and Sunday, with
dry weather and warming temperatures expected for Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 256 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KPUB, and KALS.
Only some high level clouds will be over the area at times.  Winds
are expected to be mostly 10 kts or less at the terminal forecast
sites thru Mon morning, and then the winds should be westerly 10-15
kts, but maybe a bit more gusty at KPUB in the mid to late afternoon




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