Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201811
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1211 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

...COOL DAY TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE BLANKET THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AT 3 AM WERE QUITE COOL...WITH READING
GENERALLY AROUND 40F ON THE PLAINS...AND 20S AND 30S IN THE VALLEYS
AND MTNS. NO PRECIP OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS DETECTED ON REGIONAL RADARS.

THIS MORNING...

LOTS OF CLOUDS...SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
THIS MORNING ON THE PLAINS. AT 3 AM...VIS WAS DOWN TO 1/4SM MILES AT
KCOS...BUT THIS APPEARED TO BE LOCAL AS AREA CDOT WEBCAMS DID NOT
SHOW ANY DENSE FOG IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION. EXPECT AREAS OF FG/DZ
TO CONTINUE INTO ABOUT MID MORNING AND THEN IT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK.
UP.

MTNS WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...

WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE S MTNS AND C
MTNS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/-TSRA WILL BE OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DONT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE TO
FAR EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AND HAVE CUT BACK POPS EAST OF I-25 FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A COOL DAY TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 55-
60F RANGE MOST OF PLAINS. WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY WHERE MID 60S ARE LIKELY. PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SUN BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...

CLOUDS RETURN TO THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT POPS
BUT I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT...AND KEPT MAINLY LOW POPS TONIGHT ALONG
THE GREATER I-25 CORRIDOR. IT WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS...AND 30S IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST COAST ON THURSDAY SENDING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTH
OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS COLORADO. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT IN DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE...AND POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...QUICKLY
SPREADING EAST INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OF RAIN...AND LOCALLY MORE...WHICH WILL LEAD
TO FURTHER FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE PLAINS AND RUNOFF WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ABOVE 10 KFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS STORM.

BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH DRY AIR
ROTATING UP ACROSS COLORADO AND DRY SLOTTING THE AREA. MIXING OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A DRYLINE
THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE
ESPECIALLY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
DECENT SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS. ELSEWHERE ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE
FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY...THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND MOVING THEM INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY MORNING ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOME RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO HEAVY
AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FINALLY COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT COS AND PUB WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE KEEPING CLOUDS IN PLACE. COULD SEE -SHRA AND ISOLD
-TRSA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH DOES
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS ATTM. EXPECTING IFR AND LOCAL
LIFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH FG AND DZ
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT COS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW


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