Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 101725
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1125 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

COLD FRONT IS ON ITS WAY TOWARD SERN CO AND SHOULD BRING SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS ALOFT COOL SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY...AND ALTHOUGH
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...THEY WILL STILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY AROUND 10 DEGREES.  THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PCPN THIS AFTERNOON OVR THE ERN MTNS AND SOME OF
THE ADJACENT PLAINS...WHICH THEN MOVE EASTWARD IN THE EVENING HOURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH BASED MSTR AND PROBABLY MUCH OF THE
PCPN WL BE VIRGA.  LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8-
9C/KM WITH A COUPLE TO A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE SO WL MENTION
THE CHC FOR THUNDER.  COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVR THE CENTRAL
MTNS TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF WL MOVE FROM WY INTO ERN CO...AND BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS KEEP CHANCES FOR PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS THRU
THE NIGHT. FOR NOW WL BLEND POPS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS METEOROLOGICAL THINKING
WITH PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING AMOUNT OF IMPACT SYSTEM WILL HAVE
OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...PRIMARILY OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE THE
FORECAST DISTRICT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN COMBINATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ARE THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
MANY AREAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
WARM AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NOTED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWFA
SATURDAY. ALSO...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS FROM SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

METEOROLOGICAL FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO STRONGER SYSTEM THAT IMPACTS
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

A BRIEF RETURN TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS IS THEN ANTICIPATED
FROM LATER MONDAY INTO THE MAJORITY OF TUESDAY AS A TRANSITORY
UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES SOUTHERN COLORADO.

NEXT ROUND OF UNSETTLED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
BE NOTED FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU APR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20KT AT COS AND PUB TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CU BUILDS STILL POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF COS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15-25KTS AT ALS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE DIURNAL WIND REGIME EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MW



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