Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 221023
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis had weak
generally southerly flow aloft across the state, with upper ridging
in place across the Desert SW through the Southern High Plains as an
upper trough is digging across the Pac NW Coast at this time. Water
vapor is also indicating an upper level disturbance embedded within
the ridge across central Arizona with mid and upper level monsoonal
moisture and another minor disturbance across central New Mexico
slowly lifting north at this time. 00Z NCEP charts indicated PWATS
at GJT and DEN between 0.40 and 0.55 inches (69 and 92 percent of
normal) with PWATS between 0.70 and 0.90 inches from FGZ to ABQ.

Today and tonight...Weak southerly flow aloft to continue across the
area through the day, with flow becoming more southwest and
increasing slightly into tonight, as Pac NW trough continues to dig
into the Northern Great Basin. With available moisture continuing to
increase across the area, along with the minor embedded disturbances
expected to move into southern and western portions of the area
through late morning and afternoon, there should be earlier
development and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms over
and near the higher terrain today, with the best coverage across the
southern Mts and areas along and west of the ContDvd.

Further east, lee troughing progged to continue across the eastern
plains, with latest model data, especially higher res HRRR and RAP,
indicating dew pts across the I-25 corridor mixing out into the 30s,
especially north of Hwy50, through the afternoon, with breezy
southerly low level winds across the far se plains keeping dew pts
in the 50s. With that said, could see limited convection across the
I-25 corridor today, though with convective temps in the mid to
upper 80s being reached into the afternoon, could see a few storms
firing across the far se plains. Locally heavy rainfall remains the
main concern from storms today, with localized flash flooding
possible, especially across the area burn scars.  Temperatures today
to be around seasonal averages once again, with temps at or slightly
warmer than yesterday expected across the eastern plains, and at or
slightly cooler than yesterday across the higher terrain.

Should see any convection across the plains waning through the
evening hours, with showers and a few storms possibly continuing
into the overnight hours across the western half of the area, as
the Pac NW trough continues to translate east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Weak upper trough over the southwestern U.S. begins to shift
toward the srn Rockies Tue, while strong upper low moves eastward
across the Canadian prairies. Plentiful mid level moisture will
remain in place over the mountains and with strengthening dynamic
lift spreading across the area, another round of sct to nmrs tsra
will develop Tue afternoon/evening, with some pockets of heavy
rainfall possible over central/swrn mt zones. Over the eastern
mountains and plains, pre-frontal surface trough will lie across
the area early Tue, before cold front drops south through the
plains Tue afternoon/evening. Air mass east of the mts looks
fairly dry Tue, which will limit convective chances somewhat
during the day, with better rainfall chances Tue evening and
overnight as mid level flow turns weak ely and mountain storms
drift eastward toward the I25 corridor. Front ends up near the NM
border Wed, with gradually strengthening upslope flow in place
across most of the ern mts and plains. Best chance for convection
Wed afternoon/evening looks to be over the eastern mts, as higher
terrain farther west dries somewhat under w-nwly flow, while
eastern plains stay too cool/stable, at least through the daytime
hours. As low level warm advection pattern develops Wed evening,
storms may spread out onto the plains, especially south of the
Arkansas River closer to the old frontal boundary.

Diffuse upper trough then redevelops over the western U.S. from
Thu into the weekend, and with mid level flow turning back to the
southwest, at least a modest influx of moisture looks likely,
which will lead to an increased chance of tsra over most higher
terrain from Thu afternoon into at least Sun. Plains look moist
enough to see storms Thu/Fri, before lee surface trough and drier
air begin to limit convective chances over the weekend. Temps will
peak on Tue with much cooler air across the region Wed/Thu, then a
slow warming trend develops from Fri into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at COS and PUB
with afternoon and evening storms expected to remain mainly over the
higher terrain.

ALS will again see better chances of storms moving across the
terminal this afternoon and evening, with brief MVFR conditions
and gusty winds if storms do develop.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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