Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 110510
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1110 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Currently, GOES-16 imagery shows atmospheric column is dry across
southern Colorado.  Surface dew points are in the 20s to lower 30s
and temperatures are in the 50s across the plains, and 30s and 40s
mountains and high valleys.  Winds are generally under 10 mph,
except a bit gusty highest terrain.

Tonight, Upper shortwave ridge axis moves east of the CWA, with
upper flow becoming west-southwesterly.  This flow will translate
down to the lee of the eastern mountains, keeping temperature up
there, and heart of the cold air will be across Kansas.  Low
temperatures are forecast to be generally just above freezing by
early morning across the plains.  No frost or freeze highlights will
be issued for the rest of the season for El Paso, Pueblo, Huerfano,
or Las Animas Counties given the hard freeze last night. With a
light freeze in the rest of the eastern counties last night, have
opted, along with GLD, to not issue frost advisories. Have inserted
areas of frost in the weather grids.

Wednesday, with 700MB temperatures rising to 8 to 10 degrees
Celsius, and with some mixing down of southwest upper flow, it will
be a very pleasant weather day across the CWA.  High temperatures
should have no problem reaching the 70s across the plains, 60s high
valleys, and 40s and 50s mountains.  Models show slightly more
moisture in mid and upper levels, so the sun may be dimmed a little
during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

An upper-level trough over the western US will dominate southern
Colorado weather Wednesday night through Friday. Dry southwesterly
flow over the region in association with the western trough will
lead to dry weather and clear skies. Some will also see breezy
conditions, particularly in the San Luis Valley. Thursday morning
low temperatures will be warmer than in previous nights, ranging
from the mid 40s across the plains to the low to mid 30s in mountain
valleys. Thursday high temperatures will rise to roughly 10 degrees
above normal across the plains and near normal in the mountain
valleys. As the western trough drifts east, a weak and dry cold
front will drop south through the eastern plains early Friday,
dropping temperatures closer to normal for Friday afternoon. With
the upper jet moving over the region, stronger winds mixing down to
the surface will combine with low RH to create near critical fire
weather conditions in the San Luis Valley Friday afternoon.

Easterly upslope flow behind the cold front will bring increased
cloud cover over the eastern plains Saturday morning with slightly
cooler temperatures Saturday. Near critical fire weather conditions
will again be possible during the afternoon hours across the San
Luis Valley. The upper trough amplifies and swings across the Rocky
Mountains Saturday evening. Associated deepening surface low
pressure lee of the Rockies will advance to the northeast into the
midwest, sending another, slightly stronger cold front down the
eastern Colorado plains Saturday evening. This front is expected to
be mainly dry for southern Colorado, with low precip chances
confined to the northeast part of the CWA. Behind the cold front,
high temperatures on Sunday will likely range 5-10 degrees below
average across the plains and mountain valleys. Another weaker
disturbance will advance north of the region on Sunday, but is
expected to be dry.

Zonal westerly flow and slight height rises Monday and Tuesday
will bring continued dry conditions with rising temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Dry southwest flow will keep conditions generally VFR all areas
for the next 24 hours. However, KALS may see a brief period of
IFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS for a couple hours around sunrise due
to trapped low level moisture under the surface inversion.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...LW



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