Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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135
FXUS65 KPUB 011800
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

12Z SUITE OF MODE RUNS HAVE COME IN...AND FORECAST FOR THE MOST
PART STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SNOW FILLING IN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE
LIFT COMING IN WITH THE SYSTEM. SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR
KTAD BY 21Z...THEN TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BORDER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS PUTS BEST MID LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...SO THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWFALL FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL FOCUS NORTH OF KPUB. KTAD AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE MORE DOWNSLOPE WITH A PCPN SHADOW. THAT
SHOULD CHANGE HOWEVER AS THE LOW PULLS EASTWARD THROUGH 06Z AND
WRAP AROUND PRECIP SPREADS IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENDED
UP INCREASING SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
RATON. THE GFS WOULD STILL SUGGEST ADVISORY NUMBERS FOR BACA
COUNTY...WHILE NAM12 WOULD SUGGEST AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING MIGHT
BE NECESSARY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. STILL CONCERNED
ABOUT WIND DRIVEN SNOW/DRIFTING AND WHITE OUT POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. FOR NOW WINDS
LOOK BORDERLINE...BUT IF ANY LOCATION WOULD BE MOST UNDER THREAT...IT
WILL BE KIOWA COUNTY. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

...WINTER STORM ON TRACK WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN UPPER STORM SYSTEM
IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BROAD MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SPREADS OVER
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND HAS SPREAD PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY SNOW
HAS FALLEN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ESPECIALLY THE SAN
JUAN RANGE WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHICS
EXIST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MOST MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
GFS...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN
AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE.  FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE
NAM 4KM...ECMWF AND RAP/HRRR.

EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EJECTING INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.  AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
HEAVIER SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...IN
PARTICULAR THE SAN JUAN RANGE.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CYCLOGENESIS BY 18Z WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR PUEBLO.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FOR MUCH OF
THIS AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL WRAP INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AFTER 18Z...FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW
INCLUDING PUEBLO AND THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE I-
25 CORRIDOR.  STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ERODE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT DUE TO DOWNSLOPE TERRAIN EFFECTS AND THE MUCH NEEDED UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO KANSAS.  AREAS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE PRONE AREAS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
RATON RIDGE.  ONE AREA OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS IS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.  THE ECMWF IS MOST BULLISH WITH THE
TROWAL...WHILE MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS DELAY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE
LOW IS ALREADY TO THE EAST. IF THE TROWAL DOES FORM THIS FAR
WEST...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL OUT NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER LATE TONIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE.

AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE UPWARDS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.  LOCATIONS
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD ALSO DO WELL WITH 10 TO 15 INCHES. THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL GENERALLY SEE 6 TO
12 INCHES.  AREAS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AND NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WILL
SEE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS...BUT IF THE TROWAL CAN DEVELOP...COULD SEE
HIGHER TOTALS.  FOR MORE DETAILS ON SNOW TOTALS...SEE THE WINTER
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

IMPACTS...MOUNTAIN PASSES WILL LIKELY BE IMPASSABLE DUE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW DRIFTS.  BE PREPARED FOR
DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVER THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.  LOCATIONS
OVER THE PLAINS...INCLUDING HIGHWAY 50 AND I-25 WILL SEE SLICK
ROADWAYS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE SNOW OVERNIGHT AND FREEZING OF
WATER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE BY
LATE MORNING DUE TO HEAVIER SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES AND SNOW DRIFTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MOST AREA HIGHWAYS. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

...HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN WESTERN KANSAS BY 12Z
TUESDAY...BUT STILL SOME LINGERING EFFECTS WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TO ALLOW
SNOW TO END AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH
IMPROVEMENT LATE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER COLORADO DURING THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS AN OPEN
WAVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...WHILE
THE ECMWF DIGS A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE SAME
TIME PERIOD. THE GFS EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF A H5 LOW OVER NEW
MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS LOW AS IT MOVES
INTO NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGS
PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL COLORADO ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. ON SATURDAY...A TRANSIENT RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON SUNDAY. IT IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THE LATER PERIODS AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS STILL UNFOLDING AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE STILL SEEN IN THE LATEST RUNS.

OVERALL...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO. FOLLOWING THE CURRENT STORM
SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WHICH WILL IMPACT
FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR KCOS WITH ROUNDS OF
SN...THEN BLSN AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS EVENING. AFTER 08Z...SHOULD SEE SOME DECREASE IN THE SNOW
AND CIGS INCREASE INTO THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE. KPUB WILL ALSO SEE
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE. CIGS AND VIS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MVFR OR BETTER
RANGE AFTER 09Z. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB TERMINALS SHOULD PICK UP
ANOTHER 5-7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH KCOS LIKELY TO
SEE THE HEAVIER OF THESE TOTALS.

KALS WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST BY EVENING AND BECOME LESS GUSTY. KALS COULD PICK UP
AROUND 3-5 INCHES AT THE TERMINAL SHOULD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACT THE AIRPORT.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ058>089-
093>098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...KT



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