Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250514
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 546 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED EARLY EVENING POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH
RES MODELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 414 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN UPR LOW CENTER OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL WY WITH THE UPR TROF OVR CO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 2000-2500 J/KG NEAR THE EASTERN
CO BORDER. SHEAR IS MARGINAL TODAY WITH VALUES BEING ABOUT 35-45
KTS. STILL COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE OR A FEW SEVERE STORMS OVR THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WEAK FUNNELS. THE UPR
LOW WL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT AND BY LATE
NIGHT...MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF
ANY PCPN. HOWEVER MSTR WRAPPING AROUND THE UPR LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS WL LIKELY KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING IN THAT AREA...AND
THE FAR SERN PLAINS COULD SEE PCPN LINGER UNTIL TOWARD MORNING.

ON MON THAT UPR TROF WL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA...AND BEHIND THE
TROF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WL AGAIN SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE OVER THE MTNS AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS AND THEN SPREAD OVR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  MON
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES ACRS THE SERN PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO ONLY BE
UP AROUND 600 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...ONLY
AROUND 20 KTS. THUS CHANCES FOR SEVERE WX LOOK LOW.  HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WL STILL BE A CONCERN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...A WET END OF MAY IS LIKELY...

WITH MOISTURE LOCKED IN OVER SE CO...EXPECT THE WETTER-THAN-PROGGED
PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
TO THE WE...AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE C ROCKIES.
SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIP THROUGH TUE MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY STILL SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUDS FROM THE PREVIOUS
CONVECTION.

TUE-WED...ALLOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA.
THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPS SOMEWHAT...INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND
POSSIBLY A FEW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT HEATING...AND IF TEMPS DO NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 80 AT KPUB
IT WILL PROBABLY SEAL OUR FATE FOR HAVING ONE OF THE COOLER AND
WETTER MAYS IN RECENT YEARS. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE MTS EACH DAY...THEN MOVING OUT ON TO THE PLAINS BY EVE.
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS NUMEROUS OR STRONG AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THIS WEEKEND.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND ON THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES. THE SUBTROPICAL TAP AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT HAD LOOKED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PLENTY OF SHOWERS
ACROSS SE CO...ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE H5
CIRCULATION CUTS OFF OVER W KS...AND MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS ERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER WEEKEND OF DRIZZLE...LIGHT
RAIN AND FG. LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE SHOT OF BREAKING THE RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR MAY AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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