Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 150538
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Updated short term grids, mainly pops and clouds, but all grids to
reflect latest radar and satellite trends. This resulted a big pop
and cloud cover increase under the current MCV moving across the
region. Precip will become increasingly more stratiform and
continue for a while.

UPDATE Issued at 619 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Updated grids to increase pops in Pueblo/Fremont/southern El Paso
counties where colliding outflow boundaries are expected to
induce/congeal thunderstorm development through the evening which
could result in heavy rains across this area. Will be monitoring
these areas closely for localized flash flood potential,
particularly urban areas, areas with saturated soils and burn
scars. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

Currently...

Weak, broad closed low at mid levels was noted just east of the
Gunnison region at 2 pm this afternoon. Most abundant shower
activity was generally in this region, although scattered to
numerous showers was noted over a large part of the mountainous area
of southern Colorado. Storms were also just beginning to develop
over parts of the plains, mainly along the I-25 corridor and along a
sfc trough axis that extended from near Branson CO northeastward
towards the Lamar region.

Moisture was abundant over the entire region. SPC analysis ranged
from 1.5 to 1.0 g/kg over the plains (with the bette moisture near
the border). Values of 0.5 - 1.0 were noted over the higher terrain.
CAPE values ranged between 500-1000 J/KG.

Rest of today into tonight...

Deep, albeit weak, upslope flow will continue through the afternoon
and evening as the broad weak closed low moves slowly east-northeast.
Conceptually, areas generally east of US-50 should see the highest
risk of heavy convective rains the rest of this afternoon and into
the evening. This would place the Junkins/Hayden and Waldo burn scars
in the highest risk for flash flooding. HRRR hints at locally heavy
rain these regions.

As the low lifts off the east-northeast, southwesterly flow at 700
develops later this evening south of US-50, with southeast 700 mb
low north of us50. This will allow a trough axis to extend
generally to the east of the 500 low, and this may be the region
where the best chance of rain will develop later this evening on the
plains.

by later tonight, the broad mid level low should be over the greater
Limon region. Most precip will likely dissipate over the region
later tonight but some showers will likely continue in the vicinity
of the low center.

Lots of clouds will linger over the region tonight.

Tomorrow...

Monsoon moisture will remain over the region tomorrow. Several weak
disturbance are noted in the guidance products so anticipate
scattered to numerous showers and storm once again in the mountains
with scattered POPs over the plains. With abundant moisture, locally
heavy rains will continue to be a threat over the region. Guidance
does show that quite a bit of moisture will be over the plains, so
we could see more widespread activity over this region. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 308 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

...Drier over the Plains but Monsoon Still Active over the Mountains
Sunday through Friday...

The monsoon will take a bit of a breather over the plains Sunday
through Friday but remain fairly active over the mountains through
the period.  It looks like the monsoonal "depression" that is
swirling over us today and will continue to do so through Saturday,
moves primarily east of Colorado Sunday, allowing some drier air to
move into the state.  There will still be adequate moisture for
daily convection over and near the mountains each day, but it looks
like quite a bit less activity over the plains in the presence of
the drier air.  Still some isolated activity but not the widespread
stuff that will be with us through Saturday.  So, a drier period for
the plains.  The mountains will remain active through the period,
still remaining on the eastern edge of the monsoonal moisture flow.
The combination of daily heating and lifting from the terrain should
be enough to produce daily rounds of slow moving, pulse convection.
Primary concerns will continue to be heavy rain, lightning and gusty
winds with some spots of mainly small hail.  And, of course, with
slow moving, heavy rain producing storms, there will be the
potential for flash flooding, particularly on area burn scars.  We
will need to remain especially cognizant of the flash flood risk for
the next 6-8 weeks as we move through the monsoon season.  This time
of year lends itself to repeated days of heavy rain over the same
locations and very efficient rainfall runoff processes i.e. less
evaporation and infiltration and more direct runoff.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Fri Jul 14 2017

VFR cigs expected at the TAF sites tonight with active monsoon
plume keeping showers going across the mountains and portions of
the far southeast plains through the night. If skies clear out,
KALS could see a brief window of IFR conditions towards morning,
but for now mid clouds look like they will stay in keeping any
patchy fog and low stratus from forming. This will need to be
monitored. Otherwise, another round of showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the area Saturday afternoon with primarily VFR
Cigs/vis. However heavy rainfall will be possible and if storms
impact the TAF sites conditions could drop into the MVFR category
for a brief time. Thunderstorms look more likely to clear the TAF
sites by 00z with clearing skies through the evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT


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