Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 081740
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1140 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF NORTHERLY
SURGE WHICH IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 3 AM MDT
THIS MORNING.  STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARING THE TRINIDAD
REGION AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  RECENT AREA BURN SCARS(SUCH
AS THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURNS SCARS) WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.  EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD
NOTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 20F COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLING IN
THE RANGE 2F TO 12F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
WL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA...THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.  THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS WL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN.  HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL...BUT WL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRI.

SAT THE UPR RIDGE WL STILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE
SERN CO PLAINS.  THE FRONT MAY ENTER THE PALMER DVD AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH IT THEN CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THRU THE EVENING
HOURS.  DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING  SOME PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR SRN UT ON SUNDAY. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR ERN CO SUN WL PROBABLY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
PCPN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ERN MTNS THRU THE DAY.   MON SHOULD
BE ANOTHER DAY WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

STILL SOME MVFR STRATUS HOLDING ON AT KCOS LATE THIS MORNING...AND
WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SE...EXPECT CIGS AROUND THE
TERMINAL WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE VALLEYS AND I-25 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCTS FROM 20Z-03Z THIS EVENING FOR
KALS...WITH A LATER START TO TSRA AT KCOS AND KPUB...LIKELY AROUND
22-23Z. TERMINALS WILL ALL BECOME VFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
SW...THINK POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRATUS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT KCOS
AND KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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