Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 122239
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Primary near-short term meteorological concerns includes pops, snow
amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation potential at times(primarily
over far southeastern sections), gusty winds at times and
temperatures.

Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds eastern
sections to cloudy skies western portions in combination with
generally above seasonal mid-January temperatures and relatively
tame winds(especially when compared to the previous 3 days).

Recent real-time data, computer simulations, PV analysis and
forecast model soundings suggest that snow, heavy at times, will be
possible over portions of the Continental Divide into
Saturday(although recent trends have backed off somewhat on snow
amounts and coverage), and at this time will maintain existing
Winter Weather Highlights for these locations into Saturday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to amount of impact that closed
upper low produces over the forecast district beginning later Friday
night and continuing into Monday(for the Saturday night into next
week details please view longer term discussion below). In addition,
have also depicted some basically light freezing precipitation over
far southeastern locations(primarily portions of Baca, Prowers and
Kiowa counties) from Friday night into Saturday.

The highest potential for gusty winds should be experienced at times
from tonight into Friday, in combination with temperatures running
near to a category or so below below mid-January climatological
averages over most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

...Winter Storm to impact the southeast plains this weekend...

For Saturday night into Sunday...the latest model runs are trending
farther south with the upper low now forecast to move across
northern Mexico Saturday night. Because of the more southern track,
have lowered pops initially across the northern portion of the CWA.
Have kept the best precipitation chances across the southern CWA.
Precipitation type continues to be a concern as well. Temperatures
Sunday off the newest model runs are a bit warmer across southeast
CO and soundings for SPD now indicate more rain than freezing rain.
However, that is just one model run of the NAM, while previous
models were consistent with surface temps below freezing and a nose
of warm aloft which would favor freezing rain. Superblend
temperatures for Sunday are showing temps in the mid to upper 30s.
Models bring a significant swath of moisture and precipitation
across far southwestern Kansas Saturday night into Sunday, but
moisture across southeast CO is somewhat limited initially. The snow
diminishes across the Central Mountains with snow continuing for the
Eastern San Juans.

Late Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday...the upper low moves
to the TX panhandle and wraparound moisure increases across the
southeast plains. Surface winds shift to northerly and the cold air
deepens across the plains. Currently have precipitation changing
over to all snow across southeast CO Sunday night. Northerly
downslope surface winds across southern El Paso and Pueblo counties
could limit the amount of precipitation in those areas. Kept the
best snow chance along and East of I-25. Models continue to indicate
fairly impressive liquid precipitation amounts of 1" to 1.5".
Difficult to say exactly how much of that will fall as snow as
models differing on precipitation type. Could end up with a mix of
rain, freezing rain, and snow initially before changing over to all
snow Sunday night and continuing into early Monday. Preferred
locations for the heaviest precipitation look like eastern Las
Animas, Otero, Bent, Prowers, Baca, and Kiowa counties. Gusty
northerly winds late Sunday night and Monday morning could create
blowing and drifting snow. On Monday, the upper low moves across
Central Kansas with precipitation shifting off to the east during
the afternoon. A Winter Storm Watch/Warning will likely be needed
for Sunday night into Monday for the southeast plains.

For Tuesday and Wednesday...northwest flow aloft over the area with
a chance of mainly mountain snow showers. Highs Tuesday will remain
cool on the plains with fresh snow cover most areas, while areas
near the mountains should see highs closer to 40. Warmer and mainly
dry on Wednesday.

On Thursday, southwest flow aloft increases ahead of the next
Pacific trof. Expect a chance of snow along the Continental Divide,
dry conditions elsewhere. Warmer temperatures on the plains. Stark

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 334 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

ALS...

Winds will be continuously from the south and east with ceilings
starting around 10 KFT and lowering to 06 KFT around 12Z. VFR
conditions throughout the forecast period.

COS...

The winds will shift throughout the forecast period, starting from
the east and gradually shifting towards the south.  Low level
saturation will decrease the ceiling to around 04 KFT, if the
ceilings lower any more, MVFR is a possibility, but for this
forecast, conditions are at VFR the whole time.

PUB...

Winds will be from the east around 10 KTS for the forecast period,
VFR conditions will be present as well.  Around 00Z low-level
saturation will start creating SCT clouds at 04 KFT, but should
remain fairly scarce.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...SKELLY


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