Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 301020
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
420 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH JUST SOME PATCHY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES/DRIZZLE LINGERING
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE STAYED FAIRLY STEADY
IN THE 20S AND 30S...WITH COLDEST READINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
ACROSS SNOW COVERED AREAS NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND AROUND
TRINIDAD. FOR TODAY...UPPER LOW MAKES ONLY VERY MINOR PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING COOL AND MOIST NW FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. FORCING FOR PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK...THOUGH WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SUSPECT WE`LL SEE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A
SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS/WIND AND CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER
RAW DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAX TEMPS RUNNING SOME 20F BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH LOW NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NEBRASKA AND NEXT LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS AZ. LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY TAKES ON A MORE E-NE
COMPONENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
WITH THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS CONTINUING. BY EARLY SUN
MORNING...LIFT AHEAD OF AZ LOW BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG THE NM
BORDER...AND EXPECT SOME STEADIER PRECIP...MAINLY SNOW...TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SAN JUANS/SOUTHERN SANGRES/SAN LUIS
VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP MIN TEMPS FROM DROPPING
TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MOST SITES WITHIN
A FEW DEGF OF 32F. MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH
TEENS AND 20S LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...MORE SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV...WILL MOVE INTO
ERN AZ SUN MORNING AND ON TO NRN NM SUN AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE SAN JUANS WILL SEE THE FIRST ROUND SUN
MORNING...THEN PRECIP SHIFTS TO THE SANGRES AND WETS SUN AFTERNOON
AND THEN THE PIKES PEAK AREA AND ERN PLAINS SUN EVENING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE 7000-7500 FEET SUNDAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND
6000 FEET BY MON MORNING...SO THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS IN AND AROUND KCOS OVERNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT
LOOK GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 INCH RANGE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000
FEET. THIS IS JUST BELOW WARING CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
WINTER HEADLINES FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT THAT MOST OF THE MTN AREAS
WILL REQUIRE AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENT. STILL A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH QPF TO EXPECT...BUT THE MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES AS IT LIFTS
OFF INTO THE PLAINS. A RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO REBUILD BY TUESDAY...BUT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH 50S FOR THE PLAINS ON
MON AND 60S FOR TUE.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE FINALLY REBUILDS AND TEMPS
REBOUND TO THE 70S FOR THE PLAINS...POSSIBLY NR 80 DEGREES BY THU.
THE BREAK IN THE STORMY PATTERN WILL BE RATHER
BRIEF...HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
WEST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
DEEP BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS OUR MOST RECENT STORM. DEEP SRLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW...AND A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL JET...COULD
BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SVR WX TO THE PLAINS BY FRI AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS IT TRACKS ACROSS CO NEXT WEEKEND...THE MTNS WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

AT KALS...MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN REMAIN VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z...WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINAL IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT KCOS...STRENGTHENING NW WINDS AND DIMINISHING PRECIP HAVE LED TO
IMPROVING CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH ALL SITES
AROUND KCOS BUT KMNH BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 10Z. STILL A LOW
RISK OF SOME PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE IN A FEW
SPOTS...BUT WITH NW WINDS ALREADY UP TO AROUND 10 KTS...SUSPECT ANY
CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE TOO PATCHY TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
GENERALLY VFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

AT KPUB...WEAK WEST WIND BEGINNING TO ERODE STRATUS HERE AS
WELL...THOUGH STILL SOME POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS AND EVEN LIGHT
DRIZZLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AS OF 10Z. EXPECT AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A LOW THREAT OF SOME
FOG IN THE VICINITY UNTIL WIND STRENGTHENS AFTER SUNRISE. MAINLY VFR
CIGS THEN EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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