Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 300527
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP REMAINDER OF SVR WATCH WITH LATEST UPDATE..AND LOWER
POPS TO ISOLATED ALONG THE KS BORDER AS MAIN PORTION OF THE SQUALL
LINE HAS MOVED INTO KS. DID ADD BACK SOME LOW POPS TO NRN
TELLER/EL PASO COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW WRAP AROUND -SHRA WILL BRUSH
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RAMPART RANGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

WILL DROP SVR WATCH AND REMOVE SEVERE TSRA WORDING FOR COUNTIES
BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING PUEBLO/EL PASO. STILL A COUPLE
WEAK TSRA OVER THE SANGRES...SO WONT COMPLETELY END POPS YET.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...

NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. LATEST
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS MORNING...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EVENING. SPC MESO ANALYSIS
INDICATING 600-1200 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ATTM.
WITH BROAD UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH AND INCREASING
BULK SHEARS OF 40-50KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS
LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BEST
CHANCES EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE. ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS REMAIN POSSIBLE...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER AS
WELL A FEW POSSIBLE TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...THOUGH WITH THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS...THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOW...SAVE IF ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
FALLS OVER ONE OF THE AREA BURN SCARS.

SUBSIDENT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE WITH
CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM...AND WITH EXPECTED
CLEARING SKIES...COULD SEE AREAS OF FROST AND OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FROST ADVISORY FROM 2AM THROUGH 8 AM FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
STILL LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE...MODERATE AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP ONLY A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CONTDVD TOMORROW...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF THE
OREGON COAST...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
CWA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TO
BE THE SLOWEST AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GRIDS
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LAKE AND CHAFEEE
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVING TO THE EAST
DURING THE EVENING. HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE OVER
TELLER...EL PASO AND KIOWA COUNTIES. LATEST GFS AND EC...TO A
LESSER EXTENT...SUGGEST THE 700MB WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME
NORTHEAST DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER THE WET MOUNTAINS...AND
INCREASED POPS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER UPSLOPE. GFS AND EC
HAVE 700MB TEMPERATURES GETTING AS COLD AS -1 TO -2C. GRIDS HAVE
SNOW LEVEL GENERALLY AROUND 7500 TO 8000 FEET. IF PRECIPITATION IS
HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...SNOW LEVEL COULD BRIEFLY BE LOWER. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW 10000 FEET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR FROST
OVER THE PLAINS AND I25 CORRIDOR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH FREEZING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. REGION WILL BE UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER MIDDAY THURSDAY. DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FLOW COULD SEND WEAK COLD FRONTS INTO THE REGION. DIFFICULT TO
TIME THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES AND CR EXTENDED PROCEDURE HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THREAT FOR FROST OVER THE
PLAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR WILL BE LOW AFTER THURSDAY.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF GROUND FOG AT KALS NEAR SUNRISE AS RAIN
FELL IN THE VALLEY TODAY. IF ANY OCCURS IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY PATCHY
AND BRIEF AND WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR COZ069>071.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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