Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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132
FXUS65 KPUB 172223
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Upper low over NM will lift back north and eastward over the next 24
hours...though it doesn`t carry much moisture with it.  Could see
some isolated snow showers at times across the southern mountains
tonight...but any accumulations will be spotty and very light. Main
concern will be potential for fog redevelopment due to saturated
boundary layer. Grids will carry areas of clouds and fog for the San
Luis valley where low clouds have lingered all day...and patchy fog
across portions of the southeast plains. Lee troffing tonight will
result in better westerly drainage flow near the mountains...so this
may keep fog formation more tied to the Arkansas river valley.
Should see an invading mid cloud deck across far southern sections
of the area to help keep fog at bay down that way.

Otherwise...should see warmer conditions on Wednesday.  Models hold
on to some isolated afternoon snow showers over the southern
mountains...though this looks a tad overdone.  Have gone with a
predominantly dry forecast. Should also see a bit more wind along
the I-25 corridor which should help temperatures rebound back into
the 50s.  Kept temperatures on the cool side of guidance over the
lingering snow pack farther east where winds will be lighter. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Wednesday night-Thursday...Flow aloft across the region transitions
to more west to southwest through the day on Thursday, as old cut
off low continues to lift north and east into the High Plains as
short wave ridging builds into the region ahead of another eastern
Pacific system continues to dig into the Great Basin. Should
continue to see dry weather across the area, with lee troughing
leading to breezy westerly flow along and west of the I-25 corridor
leading to temperatures warming back to above seasonal averages on
Thursday.

Thursday night-Saturday night...Great Basin trough lifts out across
the Central Rockies and into the Central High Plains through the day
Friday with another trough progged to dig across the southern
Rockies Saturday and Saturday night.

Latest models are in better agreement of the first wave bringing a
quick shot of snow to areas along and west of the ContDVD Thursday
night and Friday, with best accumulations expected across the
eastern San Juan Mts where may eventually need a winter weather
advisory. Further east, isolated to scattered showers will be
possible across the rest of the higher terrain and immediate
adjacent plains on Friday as trough lifts out into the northwestern
Kansas Friday evening. Latest models are also in better agreement of
the second eastern Pacific system digging further south into east
central Arizona early Saturday morning, which continues across the
southern Rockies and closes off across western Texas by Saturday
night. The projected path of this system would bring another shot of
snow to areas along the ContDvd, especially the southwest mts,
Saturday with a few possible showers across the southern reaches of
the area Saturday afternoon and night. Temperatures are expected to
cool to around seasonal levels through the period.

Sunday-Tuesday...Upper ridging building across the state on Sunday
to bring a brief break in precipitation to the area before another
strong eastern Pacific system takes aim on the Rockies Monday and
Tuesday. Models differ on strength and location of this system,
especially as it lifts out across the Rockies on Tuesday with the
12z GFS developing a closed upper low of a low across southern
Colorado on Tuesday, with the 12Z ECMWF more progressive and further
north with the system. GFS ensemble data suggests a more progressive
system as well. At any rate, could see another round of moderate to
heavy wind driven snowfall across the ContDvd Monday into Tuesday,
with windy and possible unsettled weather across the eastern mts and
plains. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 322 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

ALS...

SCT low-level clouds will be present throughout the forecast period.
Fog is expected around 04Z, around sundown, persisting through 17Z.
Visibilities should be around 1/4 mile, which classifies as LIFR
conditions through the fog event.  After 17Z, the fog should lift,
returning to VFR conditions.

COS...

Low-level clouds will be present throughout the forecast period but
not low enough that the conditions would change flight categories,
VFR throughout.

PUB...

The biggest forecast problem for this forecast period is when the
fog will form. Conditions seem favorable, with high dew points,
light southeasterly flow, and hanging stratus clouds being currently
observed. This particular forecast will have fog forming around 06Z
but again, the timing is uncertain, check back for updated the
TAFs. VFR conditions until the fog forms, LIFR conditions during the
fog event, VFR conditions after the fog event.

Skelly

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SKELLY/KT



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