Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
323 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO TODAY...

CURRENTLY...SHORT WAVE ENTERING SRN ID AND UPPER LOW MOVING THRU SRN
CA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EWD TODAY...BEFORE PHASING AND DROPPING
TO THE SOUTH SE TONIGHT OVER NM. DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOW HAS SET UP
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS MAINLY ALONG AND N OF HGWY 50...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BIT OF A
LULL OVER EL PASO COUNTY A BIT LATER THIS MORNING...BUT ANY BREAK
SHOULD BE BRIEF AS UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG AND JUST E OF THE ERN
MT RANGES TODAY...AND OVER THE RATON MESA AND SPANISH PEAKS
REGION...EWD TO PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS. MODELS STILL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FOOT...POSSIBLY MORE...OF SNOW IN THESE
LOCATIONS.

EARLIER SHIFTS LEFT THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE SO MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING PACKAGE. REMAINING CONCERNS FOCUS MAINLY
ON SOME OF THE ZONES CURRENTLY UNDER ADVISORIES...EL PASO
COUNTY...PUEBLO...OTERO AND BENT COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OVER WRN EL PASO...SRN
AND WRN PUEBLO...AND SRN OTERO AND BENT COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A GOOD
PORTION OF THESE ZONES MAY STAY IN THE ADVISORY RANGE.
ALSO...ABSENCE OF STRONG WINDS WILL MITIGATE DRIFTING AND BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS. SO...CURRENT HEADLINES LOOK ON TARGET AND CAN BE
ADJUSTED LATER IF NEEDED.

TONIGHT...THE PHASED UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF NR THE 4 CORNERS
REGION...THEN TRACK SWD THROUGH NM ON THU. BEST FORCING AND LIFT
WILL SHIFT SWD AS WELL...SO WILL SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM N TO S
OVER OUR AREA. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD END AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTH OF
HGWY 50...BUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SERN
ZONES CURRENTLY UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING. H7 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL...TO AROUND MINUS 14 OR 15 OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME PRETTY LOW OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS
OVER THE MORE NRN ZONES. BUT WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...LINGERING INTO THU MORNING...WILL KEEP
MIN TEMPS ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY DURING THIS FCST PERIOD.

DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE STORM
THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO BRING QUITE A BIT OF BENEFICIAL SNOW TO THE
REGION WILL BE EXITING THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS FCST TIME
PERIOD...12Z THU. ANY SNOW THAT IS FALLING THU SUNRISE SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE STATE BY LATE MORNING THU.

TEMPS THU AND THU NITE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW ACTUALLY
FALLS ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SNOW ON
THE GROUND THU...KEPT MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
U20S TO L30S ON THE PLAINS THU AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES THU
NITE...WE SHOULD GET QUITE COLD WITH MANY POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AS
LOWS BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FROM FRIDAY ON...EXPECT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY ON THE PLAINS...WITH
40S FRI...L50S SAT...M50S SUN...AND 60S RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE MTNS...CANT RULE OUT A PASSING SNOW
SHOWER...ESPECIALLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS THE C MTNS...BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 308 AM MST WED JAN 21 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE CURRENT WINTER STORM MOVING
INTO OUR AREA TODAY. IFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW...WILL BE THE RULE TODAY.
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF DOWN TURNS IN THE SNOW...PARTICULARLY NR KCOS
LATER THIS MORN...BUT ANY BREAK SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AS UPSLOPE
WINDS PICK UP LATER TODAY. WILL NOT LIKELY SEE IMPROVEMENT UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AT KPUB AND KCOS. THEN...SHOULD SEE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY 12Z THU. AT KALS...MOST OF THE
SN WILL BE FALLING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF
KALS...HOWEVER BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
COZ076>078-083>086-089-093-095>098.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
FOR COZ058>063.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ074-075-079-
080-087-088-094-099.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ065>068-071>073.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR COZ081-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE


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