Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240511
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1111 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS TO THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.  A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
THIS EVENING...WITH WEAKER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WITH
PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL CONCERNS BEING POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY VARIABLE CLOUDS...ABOVE
SEASONAL LATER JULY TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 101F TEMPERATURE AT
KPUB EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON)...GENERALLY LOW GRADE GRADIENT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOTED AT
TIMES TO THE NORTH IN WRAY COUNTY COLORADO AND CONVECTION IS
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER SECTIONS OF
KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.

A 594 DECAMETER UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR LUBBOCK TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT TO NEAR AMARILLO TEXAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...NEXT NORTHERLY SURFACE SURGE IS PROJECTED
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  ALSO...MOISTURE PLUME MOVES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ALTHOUGH DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME STILL PROJECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA DURING THE
SHORT-TERM.

THE COMBINATION OF THE RECENTLY MENTIONED FACTORS AS WELL AS THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY ISOLATED PRIMARILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COMBINATION WITH
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF FORECAST DISTRICT
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN RETROGRADE AND
AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN
COLORADO UNDER A MODERATE MONSOON FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN...ON THURSDAY...IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE CORRECT...A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION. PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM
THREATS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.  HOWEVER...AT
TIMES...LIFT...CAPE...INSTABILITY...BOUNDARY FEATURES SUCH AS THE
DRY LINE...AND WIND SHEAR WILL COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SOME
SEVERE STORMS. IN THESE CASES...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING...AND HAIL AN INCH
OR MORE IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALL IN ALL...A PRETTY
TYPICAL LATE JULY WEATHER SCENARIO FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

VFR AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY IMPACT KALS AND KCOS.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY


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