Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 181044
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
444 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

...MOISTURE FILTERING THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER COLORADO...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER COLORADO IS ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE TO FILTER IN
ACROSS THE STATE.  A RARE...LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORM...IS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LA GARITA RANGE...NORTHWEST OF CREEDE...AT THIS
LATE HOUR.  PRETTY DECENT STORM...TOO...WITH 45+ DBZ HITTING 25-30K.
THIS STORM IS THE RESULT OF JUST A TINY UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE THINNED MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...LIKELY ONE
OF SEVERAL LITTLE DISTURBANCES THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW.

MODELS HAVE MOISTURE CONTINUING TO FILTER THROUGH THE RIDGE INTO
COLORADO TODAY.  AND...RIGHT ON CUE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
THEN...ASSISTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS...PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

PRIMARY STORM THREATS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL NOT BE HEAVY...BUT A FEW STORMS
COULD PUT DOWN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  BURN SCARS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POTENTIAL. LW

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE GFS AND EC MODELS TEND TO AGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...BUT DISAGREE GREATLY ON POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS
FOR THE CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER LOW PRES DROPS
DOWN THE WEST COAST ON TUE...WHILE THE HIGH PRES RIDGE SLIDES TO THE
EAST AND SETS UP OVER THE GULF STATES. THIS PRODUCES A SCENARIO FOR
THE REGION WHERE MONSOON MOISTURE IS ALLOWED TO STREAM NORTH ACROSS
AZ AND THE 4 CORNERS UP INTO COLORADO. EC DOES NOT DRIVE THE UPPER
LOW AS FAR SOUTH...BUT THE H5 PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR. GFS KEEPS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PCPN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHILE SPREADING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL OF THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE EC PAINTS
WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. FEEL
THAT THE EC IS PROBABLY OVERDONE...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ON TAP FEEL THAT A SOMEWHAT NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERN WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS IN
GENERAL...BUT DID SPREAD ISOLATED POPS TO THE PLAINS EACH AFTN AND
EVE. THIS PATTERN CHANGES ON FRI AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW STARTS
TO MOVE TO THE NE AND GET ABSORBED WITH THE NORTHERN UPPER FLOW.
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS COMES WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...PROMPTING MORE
WIDESPREAD PCPN AGAIN ON FRI. TEMPS EACH DAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY STEADY
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 90S FOR THE E PLAINS...AND AROUND 80 F FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ONCE THE UPPER LOW MERGES WITH THE NORTHERLY
FLOW ON FRI...WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR A GENERAL DECREASE IN CONVECTION
COVERAGE...MAINLY TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND A SLIGHT COOLING
IN THE AFTN MAX TEMPS. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN TODAY.  STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
AND THEN...ASSISTED BY OUTFLOW WINDS...PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.  HOWEVER...A FEW
STORMS COULD PUT DOWN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  SPOTTY
MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THUNDERSTORMS.

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...KCOS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
STORM TODAY...WITH KPUB HAVING A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE...AND KALS
HAVING THE LEAST CHANCE.  BELIEVE CHANCE IS GREAT ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO
BE INCLUDED IN TAF AT KCOS AND KPUB...BUT NOT KALS.  TIMING FOR KCOS
WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE AFTER 21Z. FOR KPUB...CLOSER TO 00Z. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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