000
FXUS65 KPUB 181744
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1144 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...

CURRENTLY...

AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER WAS CLEARLY SEEN IS RADAR
IMAGERY SPINNING JUST NE OF THE FAR NE CO BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
(3 AM). CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH THIS WAS DROPPING SWD ACROSS EC CO.
OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE NOTED OVER NE NM. A FE LIGHT SHOWERS
WERE NOTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE SE PLAINS. DWPTS OVER THE
REGION WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S OVER THE PLAINS...WITH 30S AND 40S
ELSEWHERE.

TODAY...

I SEE PRETTY STRONG SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY INDICATING THAT WE
MAY SEE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE ROTATING STORM FORM ON THE PALMER DIVIDE
IN THE GENERAL AREA OF DOUGLAS/ELBERT/EL PASO COUNTY AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NE EL PASO COUNTY...INTO LINCOLN COUNTY AND THEN
THE GREATER LA JUNTA REGION LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
NAM...GFS...AND RAP ALL SHOW THIS SAME GENERAL SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE KINEMATICS ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...SIMULATIONS
SHOW LOCAL BACKING OF THE LLVL WINDS OVER THE PALMER DVD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS WILL ENHANCE THE
LLVL SHEAR. RATHER STRONG SE SFC INFLOW IS PRGD (AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR DAYS) SO EXPECT STORM WILL BE INFLOW-DOMINANT
FOR A GOOD PART OF ITS LIFE. THE HODOGRAPH IS CURVED BUT THE OVERALL
MAGNITUDE IS NOT STRONG. CAPE IS PROJECTED TO BE ABOUT 1000-1500
J/KG AND TEMPS AT 500 ARE AROUND -9 TO -10C.

WITH THAT SAID...THE HI-RES DATA (SPC SSEO...NSSL WRF...LOCAL
WRF...IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THEY DO SHOW A WEAK
ROTATING STORM THIS REGION BUT MOVE IT OFF QUICKLY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.

GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...PAST HISTORY THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS DURING PRIME HEATING...THE
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER EC CO...AND THE FACT
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...I
DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REGION. I HAVE
MENTIONED SEVERE IN THE GRIDDS AND SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR
TODAY. BASED ON WHAT I HAVE SEEN...THE MOST ORGANIZED SEVERE SHOULD
BE IN THE N EL PASO COUNTY REGION...AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A LOW SUPERCELL TORNADO
THREAT THIS REGION. I BELIEVE THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE A WIND THREAT
AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREATER
LA JUNTA REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE WALDO...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN THE DWPTS...AND
THE FACT THAT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL BE EXPOSED ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE BLACK FOREST FIRE MOP-UP
OPERATIONS. LIGHTNING AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING...AND THE VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A TORNADO...COULD AFFECT
THESE FOLKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...

CONVECTION WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL PUT THE ROCKIES UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
LEADING TO DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG MIXING WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG WITH
DROPPING HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN ARE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CRITERIA ARE
BEING MET ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT FUELS HAVE BEEN LISTED AS NOT
CRITICAL AND AREAS OUT EAST NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE AREAS. ALSO REMOVED
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OUT NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE DRYLINE MIXING
WELL OUT INTO KANSAS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS COLORADO.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS COLORADO. CONTINUED VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE MIXING WILL BE GREATEST AND FUELS MOST
CRITICAL. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS...SAN
LUIS VALLEY AND EL PASO COUNTY FOR THURSDAY...AND WILL LIKELY NEED
TO DO THE SAME FOR FRIDAY IN THE FUTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PLAINS. NO SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW NORTHWARD INTO
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND LIFT THEM NORTHEAST
INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. HAVE LOW POPS GENERALLY ALONG
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT TUE JUN 18 2013

NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO LATEST TAFS. KCOS HAS THE BIGGEST THREAT
OF BEING HIT BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SO ADDED GS TO THE TAF.
KPUB HAS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF BEING DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY TS...BUT HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING AFFECTED BY GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP INTO THE TAF TO
REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. KALS WILL SEE MORE HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WHICH ARE MORE LIKELY TO MISS THE TERMINAL.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL...THOUGH WITH
LESS OF A THREAT WILL MONITOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ220>227.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ220>227.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT