Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6

000
FGUS75 KPUB 080034 CCA
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-110600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
615 PM MDT MON APR 7 2014

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF APRIL 1 2014...

AS OF APRIL 1...THE 2014 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE SNOWPACK WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE...RANGING FROM
ABOVE AVERAGE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 TO BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF 50.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 79 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS UNCHANGED FROM MARCH 1...AND HIGHER THAN 69
PERCENT OF MEDIAN A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  THE ARKANSAS BASIN
SNOWPACK MEASURED 112 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...UP FROM 109
PERCENT OF MEDIAN ON MARCH 1...AND HIGHER THAN 78 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  ALL OF THE ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK IN
THE ARKANSAS BASIN WAS LOCATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHILE THE
SNOWPACK SOUTH OF 50 WAS BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

AT THE END OF MARCH...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 73 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP FROM 68
PERCENT OF AVERAGE ON MARCH 1...AND HIGHER THAN 54 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...
STORAGE WAS AT 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP FROM 60 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE ON MARCH 1...AND HIGHER THAN 55 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A
YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             83            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                84            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 80            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     69            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 103            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       69            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   62            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            52            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       73            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    68            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       52            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          35            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          51            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM ABOVE TO BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                       107            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        115            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                    107            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                  105            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  119            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                79            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   78            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   48            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       49            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 4TH OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE NEXT OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE ISSUED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF MAY.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.