National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
730 PM MDT MON MAY 13 2013

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF MAY 1 2013...

AS OF MAY 1...THE 2013 SNOWPACK REMAINED WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN WITH THE MELT SEASON WELL UNDERWAY.  FOR
THE ARKANSAS BASIN...ALTHOUGH SOME GAINS IN SNOWPACK WERE MADE IN
THE HEADWATERS PORTION OF THE BASIN...THE OVERALL BASIN SNOWPACK
SNOWPACK REMAINED WELL BELOW AVERAGE.  IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS 41 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...DOWN FROM 69
PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST MONTH AT THIS TIME...BUT UP FROM 15 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT
82 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...UP FROM 74 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A
MONTH AGO...AND UP FROM 25 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS
TIME.

WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE AND ARKANSAS BASINS. AS OF MAY 1...THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...DOWN
SLIGHTLY FROM 68 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND BELOW 89
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME. THE ARKANSAS BASIN
REPORTED 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH WAS NO CHANGE
FROM A MONTH AGO...AND LESS THAN 81 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO
AT THIS TIME.

OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE IS RUNNING WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN AT THE END
OF APRIL WAS AT 54 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...SHOWING NO CHANGE
FROM A MONTH AGO...AND BELOW 70 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT
THIS TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 52 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 55 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH
AGO...AND WELL BELOW 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING ARE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             47            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                47            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 44            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     43            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                  50            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       44            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   37            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            40            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       54            APR-JUL
  NEAR MOGOTE                    45            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       32            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          14            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          33            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE THE
LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        66            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         68            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     63            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   60            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   58            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                31            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   45            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   33            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       30            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 5TH OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE NEXT AND FINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2013 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE
ISSUED DURING THE FIRST PART OF JUNE.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
