Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 081930
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-200600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1230 PM MDT TUE MAR 8 2016

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF MARCH 8 2016...

A STRONG WINTER STORM AFFECTED MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO IN THE FIRST
DAYS OF FEBRUARY. OTHERWISE FEBRUARY WAS A REMARKABLY DRY MONTH. THIS
WAS SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG BUT WEAKENING EL NINO
THAT IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE DRY FEBRUARY THE SNOWPACK HAS DIMINISHED
RELATIVE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ARKANSAS AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS. IF THE CONVENTIONAL EL NINO PATTERN BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF A WET SPRING IS PROBABLE. HOWEVER THE CURRENT EL
NINO HAS NOT BEEN AS RELIABLE A SIGNAL AS EXPECTED AND UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARD TO SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION IS HIGH.

THE SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE AND ARKANSAS BASINS IS DOWN TO OR JUST
BELOW THE 30 YEAR MEDIAN VALUE. MOST OUTLOOKS CALL FOR A WEAKENING OF
THE EL NINO THROUGH THE SPRING AND INTO SUMMER. THIS COULD BE
CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL THROUGH THE
ACCUMULATION SEASON.

AS OF MARCH 1...THE 2016 SNOWPACK WAS NEAR THE 30 YEAR MEDIAN ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE ARKANSAS BASIN
OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 99 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS DOWN FROM 121 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND
HIGHER THAN THE 77 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.  THE
ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 98 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...THIS
WAS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE 121 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST MONTH AND IS
LOWER THAN THE 103 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.

AT THE END OF FEBRUARY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 93 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL AND 129 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR`S VOLUME AT THE
SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE ON THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER ABOVE PUEBLO DAM WAS AT 138 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH
WAS 103 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR...ON THE
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER BELOW PUEBLO DAM RESERVOIR STORAGE IS AT 155
PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND 319 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE.FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

 RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             97            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP               103            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                101            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     94            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 106            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       91            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   84            MAR-JUL

TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH           106            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       96            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    93            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       87            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          83            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          89            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        90            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         90            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     93            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   95            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   88            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                98            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   92            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   80            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       85            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THE FORECASTS BELOW ARE FOR OBSERVED FLOW AT THE DESIGNATED
LOCATIONS. THESE FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT
UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OBSERVED FLOW.

ARKANSAS RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     98            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     88            APR-SEP

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE THIRD OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

AJA



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