Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1159 AM MDT WED JUNE 8 2016

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF JUNE 1 2016...

MAY WAS A DRY MONTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO WITH ISOLATED
EXCEPTIONS. SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO WAS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH REGARD
TO PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH. THE SNOWPACK IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM
REACHED A LATE PEAK THIS YEAR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. IN THE RIO
GRANDE, THE SNOWPACK ALSO ACHIEVED AN EARLY PEAK BELOW THE LONG-TERM
MEDIAN. THE SNOW MELTING IS MELTING IN A FAMILIAR PATTERN IN BOTH
BASINS. THE NUMBERS BELOW ARE BASED UPON THE CURRENT SNOWPACK AND
ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY NORMAL CLIMATIC REGIME FOR THE SPRING.

THE SNOWPACK IN THE ARKANSAS BASINS IS DECREASING RAPIDLY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JUNE.  MAY`S PRECIPITATION HELD THE SNOWPACK
ABOVE THE MEDIAN UNTIL EARLY JUNE WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACCELERATED
THE MELT. SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE HAS BEEN MELTING FOR SOME WEEKS
AND LOOKS TO BE ALMOST COMPLETE. A BELOW NORMAL RUNOFF YEAR IS
ANTICIPATED.

SPECIFICALLY...THE MAXIMUM SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE FOR THIS
SEASON WAS 86 PERCENT OF MEDIAN AND ARRIVED A WEEK EARLIER THAN
AVERAGE. IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM THE PEAK SNOWPACK WAS 103 PERCENT OF
MEDIAN AND ARRIVED OVER 3 WEEKS LATER THAN AVERAGE.

AT THE END OF MAY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE ON THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
ABOVE PUEBLO DAM WAS AT 104 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH WAS 95
PERCENT OF THE STORAGE AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR...ON THE LOWER
ARKANSAS RIVER BELOW PUEBLO DAM RESERVOIR STORAGE IS AT 141 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE AND 116 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE CURRENT
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

 RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             84            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                93            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 92            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     87            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 103            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       82            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   64            MAR-JUL

TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            68            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       85            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    79            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       60            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          52            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          78            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THE MAINSTEM OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE PURGATOIRE HUERFANO AND CUCHARAS
RIVERS RUNOFF IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. FOLLOWING ARE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN
THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE RUNOFF SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        94            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         93            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     95            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   95            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   92            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                79            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   92            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   90            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       87            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THE FORECASTS BELOW ARE FOR OBSERVED FLOW AT THE DESIGNATED
LOCATIONS. THESE FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT
UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OBSERVED FLOW.

ARKANSAS RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     98            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     83            APR-SEP

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE RUNOFF SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE FIFTH OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL WATER SUPPLY FORECAST FOR THE 2016 RUNOFF SEASON.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

AJA



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