Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 091950
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COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-200600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
150 PM MDT TUE MAY 9 2016

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF MAY 1 2016...

APRIL WAS A WET MONTH ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THIS WAS SOMEWHAT EXPECTED WITH THE VERY STRONG BUT
WEAKENING EL NINO THAT IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING WEATHER PATTERNS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE WET APRIL THE
SNOWPACK HAS MAINTAINED ITS VOLUME RELATIVE TO NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
MOUNTAINS OF THE ARKANSAS AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE CONVENTIONAL
EL NINO PATTERN INCLUDES A WET PERIOD IN LATE WINTER OR EARLY
SPRING. THIS APRIL MOISTURE MAY REPRESENT THAT EXPECTED MOISTURE.
IF SO, WE MAY NOT EXPECT TO SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK ACCUMULATION
THIS SPRING. HOWEVER THE CURRENT EL NINO HAS NOT BEEN A RELIABLE
PREDICTIVE SIGNAL AND UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SNOWPACK
ACCUMULATION IS HIGH. THE NUMBERS BELOW ARE BASED UPON THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK AND ANTICIPATE A RELATIVELY NORMAL CLIMATIC REGIME
FOR THE SPRING.

THE SNOWPACK IN THE ARKANSAS BASINS IS ABOVE THE 30 YEAR MEDIAN VALUE
IN THE UPPER ARKANSAS BASIN.  APRIL`S PRECIPITATION BROUGHT THE
SNOWPACK ABOVE THE MEDIAN FOR THIS DATE AND ABOVE THE MEDIUM FOR THE
SEASONAL STORAGE. THE FORECASTS FOR THE UPPER ARKANSAS REFLECT THIS
REBOUND IN THE SNOWPACK.  SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE HOWEVER REMAINS
BELOW THE MEDIAN AND IT DID NOT REBOUND AS SIGNIFICANTLY AS IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN. THE EL NINO IS ALREADY WEAKENING AND MOST OUTLOOKS
CALL FOR THAT TREND TO CONTINUE INTO SUMMER. THIS COULD BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.

AS OF MAY 1...THE 2016 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW THE 30 YEAR MEDIAN
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. SNOWPACK IN
THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT FROM
DRY WINTER. SNOWPACK IN THE ARKANSAS HEADWATERS IS ABOVE THE MEDIAN
WHILE IN THE SOUTHERN HEADWATERS THE SNOWPACK REMAINS BELOW.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 87 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS UP FROM 79 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND
HIGHER THAN THE 59 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.
THE ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 113 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...
THIS WAS UP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE 92 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST MONTH AND
IS HIGHER THAN THE 77 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.

AT THE END OF APRIL...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS NEAR AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 91 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL AND 121 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR`S VOLUME AT THE
SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE ON THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER ABOVE PUEBLO DAM WAS AT 106 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH
WAS 103 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR...ON THE
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER BELOW PUEBLO DAM RESERVOIR STORAGE IS AT 148
PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND 281 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE CURRENT
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

 RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             80            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                87            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 86            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     83            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 106            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       75            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   57            MAR-JUL

TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            87            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       81            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    77            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       78            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          54            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          70            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THE MAINSTEM OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH IN THE PURGATOIRE HUERFANO AND CUCHARAS
RIVERS RUNOFF IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW NORMAL AS WELL. FOLLOWING ARE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN
THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE RUNOFF SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        99            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         98            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     97            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   95            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   92            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                91            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   86            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   78            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       83            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THE FORECASTS BELOW ARE FOR OBSERVED FLOW AT THE DESIGNATED
LOCATIONS. THESE FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT
UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OBSERVED FLOW.

ARKANSAS RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     95            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     83            APR-SEP

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE RUNOFF SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE FIFTH OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. THE NEXT WATER
SUPPLY FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED IN THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

AJA



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