Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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099-101-105-109-119-200600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
615 AM MDT SUN JUN 14 2015

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF JUNE 1 2015...

AS OF JUNE 1...THE 2015 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ABOVE MEDIAN ACROSS THE
ARKANSAS BASIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 86 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS UP FROM 25 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND
HIGHER THAN 39 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.  THE
ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 282 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...UP
FROM 89 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND HIGHER THAN 132
PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.

AT THE END OF MAY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 66 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN FROM 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH
EARLIER...AND LOWER THAN 71 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE
SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 108 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH WAS UP FROM 79 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A
MONTH EARLIER...AND HIGHER THAN 63 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO
AT THE SAME TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.
FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             67            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                78            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 75            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     57            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 119            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       53            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   58            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            76            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       53            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    56            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       70            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          37            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          62            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST
AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW
SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        99            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        102            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                    103            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                  120            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  100            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                93            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   81            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   84            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       89            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 6TH AND FINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW


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