Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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ESFPUB COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-100600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
105 PM MDT FRI FEB 5 2015

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF FEBRUARY 4 2015...

A VERY STRONG EL NINO IS CURRENTLY DOMINATING WEATHER PATTERNS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. JANUARY WAS A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD
THAT FOLLOWED A WET FALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EL NINO PATTERN.
DESPITE THE DRY LAST MONTH THE SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE AND
ARKANSAS BASINS REMAINS ABOVE MEDIAN FOR THE SEASON.CURRENT OUTLOOKS
CALL FOR A WEAKENING OF THE EL NINO THROUGH THE SPRING AND INTO
SUMMER. THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE ACCUMULATION SEASON.

AS OF FEBRUARY 1...THE 2016 SNOWPACK WAS ABOVE MEDIAN ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 121 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS DOWN FROM 127 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND
HIGHER THAN THE 70 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.  THE
ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 121 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...THIS
WAS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE 125 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST MONTH AND IS
HIGHER THAN THE 114 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.

AT THE END OF JANUARY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 90 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL AND 129 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR`S VOLUME AT THE
SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE ON THE UPPER ARKANSAS
RIVER ABOVE PUEBLO DAM WAS AT 136 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH
WAS 102 PERCENT OF THE STORAGE AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR...ON THE
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER BELOW PUEBLO DAM RESERVOIR STORAGE IS AT 164
PERCENT OF AVERAGE AND 386 PERCENT OF LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR
SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

 RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE            107            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP               107            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                108            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                    106            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 116            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW      106            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                  107            MAR-JUL

TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH           106            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW      105            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                   106            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                      104            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                         103            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                         104            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST
AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW
SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                       102            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        102            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                    102            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                  105            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   96            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE               112            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                  109            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   92            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       91            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THE FORECASTS BELOW ARE FOR OBSERVED FLOW AT THE DESIGNATED
LOCATIONS. THESE FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR WATER MANAGEMENT
UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OBSERVED FLOW.

ARKANSAS RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                    108            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     96            APR-SEP

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE FIRST OUTLOOK FOR THE 2016 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

AJA



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