Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MST THU FEB 19 2015

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR AVERAGE IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM FEBRUARY 19 2015 TO MARCH 5 2015.

...OUTLOOK FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR AVERAGE.  ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO
DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO
PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             VALID  02/17/2015 - 05/18/2015

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:ARKANSAS RIVER
LEDC2             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SALC2             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WSVC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDLC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNCC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PRTC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDAC2             8.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADLC2             7.0    8.0    9.0     9    9    6    5   <5   <5
NPTC2            16.5   17.5   18.5     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CDMC2             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ARCC2            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LXHC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    24   13   15   <5   <5   <5
LMAC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:FOUNTAIN CREEK
FNEC2             8.0   11.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FHAC2             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PNNC2             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FCHC2            10.0   12.0   13.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:ST. CHARLES RIVER
SCVC2            12.0   15.0   18.0     5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:PURGATOIRE RIVER
PGMC2             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PGRC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PTRC2            11.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAPC2             9.0   12.0   15.0     7    9   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

FROM THE TABLE ABOVE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE THIS YEAR (CS) IS GENERALLY THE SAME AS THE HISTORICAL
CHANCE (HS) AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF
SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN THIS YEAR IS NEAR AVERAGE.

ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING AT ANY OF THE POINTS...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP
...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

SNOWMELT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH OTHER TYPES OF
FLOODING THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY STORM RUNOFF.  THIS OUTLOOK
DOES NOT ADDRESS THAT TYPE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL.  FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.

...OUTLOOK FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...FROM SNOWMELT
ALONE...IS BELOW AVERAGE.  ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO
DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO
PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS RIVER STAGES AS PRESENTED FOR THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ABOVE ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE FOR THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN.  HOWEVER...A QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON
THE RIO GRANDE IS PROVIDED HERE.

SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IS RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE MEASURING
NEAR 55 PERCENT OF MEDIAN.  RESERVOIR STORAGE IS BELOW AVERAGE
MEASURING 69 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.  BELOW AVERAGE SNOWPACK AND BELOW
AVERAGE RESERVOIR STORAGE HAVE RESULTED IN A FORECAST OF BELOW
AVERAGE RUNOFF...RANGING FROM 49 TO 97 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN THIS YEAR IS BELOW AVERAGE.

ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC
THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

SNOWMELT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH OTHER TYPES OF
FLOODING THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY STORM RUNOFF.  THIS OUTLOOK
DOES NOT ADDRESS THAT TYPE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL.  FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.

...FLOOD ASSESSMENT QUALIFIER...

THESE FLOOD POTENTIAL ASSESSMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND PROJECTIONS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
COMING MONTHS.  IT DOES NOT REFLECT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD MORE
EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP.  IF UNUSUALLY WARM OR WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE SNOWMELT
RUNOFF PERIOD...THEN MUCH MORE SEVERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

...SUMMARY OF PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS...

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS BASIN DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS PORTION OF THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN HAVE BEEN ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

OVERALL SNOWPACK LEVELS ARE RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS
BASIN AND BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE BASIN.  THE SNOWPACK
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN WAS NEAR 89 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL.  THE
SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS NEAR 55 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL.

PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
PORTION OF THE ARKANSAS BASIN TO BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINOUS PORTION OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN.  THE MOUNTAINS OF THE
ARKANSAS BASIN HAVE RECORDED 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVERALL.  THE MOUNTAINS OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN HAVE RECORDED 59
PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS ARE RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE.
COMBINED RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ARE AROUND
80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE...WHILE COMBINED LEVELS IN THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN ARE AROUND 69 PERCENT OF AVERAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATES THAT PRECIPITATION
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOVE AVERAGE...WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE EQUAL
CHANCES OF BEING AT...ABOVE...OR BELOW AVERAGE.

...EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS...

THIS LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED
USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW
COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...
THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

...SCHEDULE OF OUTLOOKS...

THIS IS THE 1ST OF 2 SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK FOR 2015.  THE 2ND SCHEDULED OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON
MARCH 5TH.  ADDITIONAL OUTLOOKS MAY BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY.  LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED NEAR
THE END OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR UNDER THIS SAME PRODUCT
NAME AND HEADING.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

$$

LW


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