Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-160600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
930 PM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF MARCH 1 2014...

AS OF MARCH 1...THE 2014 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT 79 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL...DOWN FROM 82 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH AGO AT THIS
TIME...AND ABOUT THE SAME AS A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.  IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT 109 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL...UP FROM 100 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH AGO AT THIS
TIME...AND HIGHER THAN 71 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.

AT THE END OF FEBRUARY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 68 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP FROM 65
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND HIGHER THAN 53 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE
WAS AT 60 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN FROM 64 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE A MONTH AGO AT THIS TIME...BUT HIGHER THAN 55 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             88            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                88            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 84            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     77            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 116            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       75            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   70            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            54            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       79            APR-JUL
  NEAR MOGOTE                    74            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       61            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          46            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          60            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM ABOVE TO BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                       104            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        119            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                    110            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                  108            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  123            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                85            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   82            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   62            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       68            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE THIRD OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY
THROUGH JUNE.  THE NEXT OUTLOOK FOR THE 2014 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE
ISSUED DURING THE FIRST PART OF APRIL.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW



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