National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5
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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
735 AM MDT SAT APR 13 2013

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF APRIL 1 2013...

AS OF APRIL 1...THE 2013 SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON REMAINED BELOW
AVERAGE BUT...THANKS TO COOL TEMPERATURES...GAINED SOME GROUND OVER
THE SNOWPACK LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.  IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS 69 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...DOWN FROM 79
PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST MONTH AT THIS TIME...BUT UP FROM 53 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...THE SNOWPACK WAS AT
78 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...IMPROVING FROM 69 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A
MONTH AGO...AND UP FROM 56 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS
TIME.

WATER YEAR PRECIPITATION IS RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS BOTH THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE AND ARKANSAS BASINS. AS OF APRIL 1...THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE BASIN REPORTED 66 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...DOWN
FROM 69 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND MUCH BELOW 91 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME. THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 67
PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...DOWN FROM 73 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A
MONTH AGO...AND LOWER THAN 79 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS
TIME.

OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE IS RUNNING WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN AT THE END
OF MARCH WAS AT 54 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP SLIGHTLY FROM
53 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...BUT BELOW 73 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 55
PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH IS NO CHANGE FROM A MONTH
AGO...BUT WELL BELOW 86 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING ARE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN
THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             64            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                62            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 51            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     56            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                  58            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       57            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   56            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            44            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       63            APR-JUL
  NEAR MOGOTE                    59            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       36            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          26            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          43            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE THE
LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        56            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         56            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     52            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   56            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   49            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                54            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   57            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   41            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       45            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 4TH OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FIRST PART OF
MAY.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
