Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-150600-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 AM MDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AS
OF JUNE 1 2014...

AS OF JUNE 1...THE 2014 SNOWPACK WAS STILL MELTING AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...BUT WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AT THE LEVEL OF MOST OFFICIAL
SNOW MEASUREMENT SITES.  THE ARKANSAS BASIN REPORTED 132 PERCENT
OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK...UP FROM 99 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH AGO...AND
UP FROM 86 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A YEAR AGO. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN REPORTED
JUST 39 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK...DOWN FROM 50 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A
MONTH AGO BUT UP FROM 2 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A YEAR AGO.

AT THE END OF MAY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN WAS AT 63 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN FROM 67
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...BUT HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT OF AVERAGE
A YEAR AGO.  IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 71 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL...UP FROM 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH AGO...AND HIGHER
THAN 40 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO.

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM ABOVE TO BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                       104            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        107            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     95            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   90            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  100            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                71            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   73            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   57            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       69            APR-SEP

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             78            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                84            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 82            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     77            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                 100            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       66            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   55            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            47            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       69            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    68            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       44            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          31            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          58            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 6TH AND FINAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2014 RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW



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