Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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099-101-105-109-119-201200-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1246 PM MST THU MARCH 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.

...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR NORMAL IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR NORMAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 3 TO JUNE 1 2016.

...OUTLOOK FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...

AN EXTREMELY DRY FEBRUARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO HAS REDUCED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPRING FLOODING CAUSED BY SNOWMELT.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...FROM SNOWMELT ALONE...IS
NEAR NORMAL.  ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT
SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             VALID  03/02/2016 - 05/31/2016

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:ARKANSAS RIVER
LEDC2             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SALC2             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WSVC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDLC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNCC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
PRTC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDAC2             8.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADLC2             7.0    8.0    9.0     9    9    7    7   <5   <5
NPTC2            16.5   17.5   18.5     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CDMC2             8.0    9.0   10.0     5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ARCC2            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LXHC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    16   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
LMAC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5

:FOUNTAIN CREEK
FNEC2            13.0   16.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FHAC2             8.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PNNC2             7.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FCHC2            10.0   12.0   13.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:ST. CHARLES RIVER
SCVC2            12.0   15.0   18.0     6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:PURGATOIRE RIVER
PGMC2             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PGRC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PTRC2            11.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAPC2             9.0   12.0   15.0     9   10   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

FROM THE TABLE ABOVE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE THIS YEAR (CS) IS CLOSE TO THE SAME AS THE HISTORICAL
CHANCE (HS) AT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF
SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN THIS YEAR IS NEAR NORMAL.

ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING AT ANY OF THE POINTS...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP
...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

SNOWMELT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH OTHER TYPES OF
FLOODING THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY STORM RUNOFF OR RELEASES OF
STORED WATER FROM DAMS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THAT TYPE OF
FLOOD POTENTIAL. FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.

...OUTLOOK FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...FROM SNOWMELT
ALONE...IS NEAR NORMAL.  ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO
DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO
PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING VARIOUS RIVER STAGES AS PRESENTED FOR THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ABOVE ARE NOT CURRENTLY AVAILABLE FOR THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN.  HOWEVER...A QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON
THE RIO GRANDE IS PROVIDED HERE.

SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN IS RUNNING ABOUT 99 PERCENT OF
MEDIAN AS OF MARCH 1.  RESERVOIR STORAGE IS MEASURING 90 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE.  SOIL MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL WITH VALUES
BETWEEN THE 30TH AND 70TH PERCENTILES....STREAMS IN THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY COVERED IN ICE INDICATING RELATIVELY NORMAL CONDITIONS...
THE COMBINATION OF BELOW AVERAGE RESERVOIR STORAGE...NEAR-NORMAL
STREAMFLOW...AND NEAR-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE HAVE RESULTED IN A
FORECAST OF NEAR-NORMAL RUNOFF...CONSEQUENTLY...THE THREAT OF
SNOWMELT FLOODING IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN THIS YEAR IS NEAR NORMAL.

ANY SNOWMELT FLOODING...IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP...WOULD MOST LIKELY BE
MINOR...RESULTING IN MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE BUT SOME PUBLIC
THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE.

SNOWMELT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE CONFUSED WITH OTHER TYPES OF
FLOODING THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY STORM RUNOFF.  THIS OUTLOOK
DOES NOT ADDRESS THAT TYPE OF FLOOD POTENTIAL.  FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.

...FLOOD ASSESSMENT QUALIFIER...

THESE FLOOD POTENTIAL ASSESSMENTS ARE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND PROJECTIONS OF AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE
COMING MONTHS.  IT DOES NOT REFLECT THE FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD MORE
EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP.  IF UNUSUALLY WARM OR WET
WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION DURING THE SNOWMELT
RUNOFF PERIOD...THEN MUCH MORE SEVERE FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

...SUMMARY OF PAST...PRESENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS...

TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS  OF THE ARKANSAS BASIN DURING THE LAST MONTH. IN THE
NORTHERN RANGES...ABOVE SALIDA...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN 3 TO 6
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS PORTION
OF THE RIO GRANDE BASIN HAVE BEEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...0 TO 2
DEGREES...AVERAGE.

OVERALL SNOWPACK LEVELS ARE RUNNING NEAR THE LONG TERM MEDIAN ACROSS
THE ARKANSAS AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. AS OF MARCH 1, THE SNOWPACK IN
THE ARKANSAS BASIN WAS AT 98 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL.  THE
SNOWPACK IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN AVERAGED 99 PERCENT OF MEDIAN.

PRECIPITATION FOR THE WATER YEAR (STARTING OCTOBER 1, 2015) IS NEAR
AVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS AND RIO
GRANDE BASINS. THE MOUNTAINS OF THE ARKANSAS BASIN HAVE RECORDED 98
PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND THE MOUNTAINS OF THE RIO GRANDE
BASIN HAVE RECORDED 94 PERCENT OF AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

AS OF MARCH 1, OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE LEVELS ARE RUNNING ABOUT
93 PERCENT OF AVERAGE IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN. RESERVOIR
STORAGE IN THE ARKANSAS SYSTEM IS MORE ABUNDANT. MAJOR RESERVOIRS
ABOVE PUEBLO DAM ARE AROUND 115 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. RESERVOIRS
BELOW PUEBLO DAM ARE AROUND 152 PERCENT OF AVERAGE STORAGE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL AND MAY...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...INDICATE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
CHANCES...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN COLORADO WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY
GREATER....33 TO 40 PERCENT...CHANCES OF BEING BELOW NORMAL.

...EXPLANATION OF CONTENTS...

THIS LONG RANGE OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED
USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA
INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW
COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A WIDE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...  THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN
BE DETERMINED. THESE FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

...SCHEDULE OF OUTLOOKS...

THIS IS THE SECOND OF 2 SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOKS FOR 2016. ADDITIONAL OUTLOOKS MAY BE ISSUED IF CONDITIONS
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED
NEAR THE END OF THE MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR UNDER THIS SAME
PRODUCT NAME AND HEADING. THE NEXT LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED MARCH 24TH.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/PUEBLO FOR MORE HYDROLOGIC
INFORMATION INCLUDING GRAPHS OF PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS.
YOU CAN LINK TO THE HYDROLOGY PAGE BY CLICKING ON THE LIGHT
BLUE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB NEAR THE TOP OF THE PAGE.

$$

AJA


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