Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 072052
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Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MST Fri Apr 7 2017

...Water Supply Outlook for South Central and Southeast Colorado as
of April 1 2017...

March started off warm and dry across south-central and southeast
Colorado. Snowpack numbers dropped considerably during that period.
A series of strong storms at the end of the month helped the snow-
pack recover. Many streams in the area did see a slight increase in
flow during the melt. Overall, it was a break even month for the
snowpack with roughly the same amount on April 1 as there had been
on March 1. This reflects a decrease in the snowpack relative to
the long-term average but remains a healthy amount above average
on April 1st.

As of April 1, snowpack in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of south
central Colorado was at 108 percent of median.  The highest snowpack
percentages were concentrated over the southernmost portion of the
basin.  The Conejos and Rio San Antonio Basins were at a combined
130 percent of median.  The Culebra and Trinchera Basins were at a
combined 112 percent of median.  Farther north, the snowpack
percentages were a little lower.  The Upper Rio Grande Headwaters
portion of the basin reported 96 percent of median snowpack.

The April 1 snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin was at 118 percent
of median overall.  The greatest snowpack percentages favored
northern and southern portions of the basin, with lower percentages
over middle portions.  The northern headwaters portion of the basin
reported 132 percent of median snowpack.  In the middle portion of
the basin, the combined Cucharas and Huerfano Basins reported 95
percent of median snowpack.  Over the southern portion of the basin,
the Purgatoire basin reported 113 percent of median snowpack.

At the end of January, overall reservoir storage was just at average
across south central and southeast Colorado . Storage in the Rio
Grande Basin was at 100 percent of average overall compared to 94
percent of average last year at the same time.  Across southeast
Colorado, overall storage in the Arkansas Basin was at 99 percent of
average, compared to 127 percent of average at the same time
last year.

For the Rio Grande Basin, streamflow volumes for the upcoming runoff
season are forecast to be near to above average in much of the
basin. Stronger runoff is expected in the San Antonio, Trinchera,
and Los Pinos basins. Following are the latest available streamflow
forecasts for selected locations in the Rio Grande Basin assuming
normal precipitation for the remainder of the snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

 Rio Grande River
  Thirty Mile Bridge            106            Apr-Jul
  Wagon Wheel Gap               107            Apr-Sep
  Near Del Norte                109            Apr-Sep
South Fork Rio Grande River
  South Fork                    109            Apr-Sep
Saguache Creek
  Near Saguache                 119            Apr-Sep
Alamosa Creek
  Terrace Reservoir Inflow      100            Apr-Sep
La Jara Creek
  Near Capulin                  111            Mar-Jul
Trinchera Creek
  Above Turners Ranch           133            Apr-Sep
Conejos River
  Platoro Reservoir Inflow      108            Apr-Sep
  Near Mogote                   119            Apr-Sep
Culebra Creek
  San Luis                      130            Apr-Sep
San Antonia River
  Ortiz                         141            Apr-Sep
Los Pinos
  Ortiz                         133            Apr-Sep

For the Arkansas Basin, streamflow volumes for the upcoming runoff
season are generally forecast to be near to slightly-above average.
Grape Creek is the exception with slightly below normal runoff
forecast. Following are the latest available streamflow forecasts
for selected locations in the Arkansas Basin assuming normal
precipitation for the remainder of the snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

Arkansas River
  Granite                       112            Apr-Sep
  Salida                        115            Apr-Sep
  Canon City                    112            Apr-Sep
  Above Pueblo                  108            Apr-Sep
Chalk Creek
  Near Nathrop                  115            Apr-Sep
Grape Creek
  Near Westcliffe                89            Apr-Sep
Huerfano River
  Near Redwing                   99            Apr-Sep
Cucharas River
  Near La Veta                  107            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Trinidad                      100            Apr-Sep

These forecasts reflect natural flow only.  Actual observed flow
will likely be affected by upstream water management.

The forecasts below are for 2 locations on the southeast Colorado
plains in the lower part of the Arkansas Basin.  These forecasts
include projected upstream water management expected to impact
flows.

Arkansas River
  Las Animas                    105            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Las Animas                    100            Apr-Sep

This outlook is based on recent observations of snowpack and assumes
normal precipitation for the remainder of the snow season.  If the
actual observed precipitation deviates from normal, then the actual
observed runoff will likely be different than the forecast in this
outlook.  This is the third of six scheduled outlooks for the 2017
runoff season.

Users of this product are encouraged to contact the National Weather
Service in Pueblo for continued updates on the water supply
situation.  Meteorological conditions could develop that would have
a significant impact on water supply forecasts.  The next outlook
will be issued during the first part of May.

For additional hydrologic products available on the world wide
web, visit the Pueblo National Weather Service web site at
weather.gov/pub.

Or visit the NRCS or the NWS River Forecast Centers that provide
our water supply forecasts at:

weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply

www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/index.html

This message is the result of collaboration between the National
Weather Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

AJA



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