Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-200700-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
200 PM MST MON JAN 9 2017

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF JANUARY 1 2017...

A LITTLE BEFORE THANKSGIVING...ON THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 17...THERE
WAS VIRTUALLY NO MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.  FROM
THAT POINT ON...THE WEATHER PATTERN TOOK A MAJOR TURN.  THE LARGE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT BROUGHT DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO THE
REGION WELL INTO THE FALL...FINALLY BROKE DOWN...ALLOWING THE STORM
TRACK TO DROP SOUTH INTO COLORADO.  AS A RESULT...THE MOUNTAIN
SNOWPACK HAS DONE AN ABOUT-FACE AND IS NOW STANDING ABOVE MEDIAN.

AS OF JANUARY 1...SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER RIO GRANDE BASE OF SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WAS AT 109 PERCENT OF MEDIAN.  THE HIGHEST SNOWPACK
PERCENTAGES WERE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE
BASIN. THE CONEJOS AND RIO SAN ANTONIO BASINS WERE AT A COMBINED 132
PERCENT OF MEDIAN.  THE ALAMOSA...CULEBRA AND TRINCHERA BASINS WERE
AT A COMBINED 120 PERCENT OF MEDIAN.  FARTHER NORTH...THE SNOWPACK
PERCENTAGES WERE A LITTLE LOWER.  THE UPPER RIO GRANDE HEADWATERS
PORTION OF THE BASIN REPORTED 92 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK. THE
COMBINED SAGUACHE AND SAN LUIS BASINS REPORTED 91 PERCENT OF
MEDIAN SNOWPACK.

THE JANUARY 1 SNOWPACK IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN WAS AT 116
PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL.  LIKE THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...THE GREATEST
SNOWPACK PERCENTAGES WERE OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST BASINS.  THE
PURGATOIRE BASIN REPORTED 176 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK...THE
APISHAPA REPORTED 192 PERCENT OF MEDIAN AND THE COMBINED CUCHARAS
AND HUERFANO BASINS REPORTED 110 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK.  FARTHER
NORTH...THE UPPER ARKANSAS HEADWATERS PORTION OF THE BASIN REPORTED
114 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK.

AT THE END OF DECEMBER...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND NEAR AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. STORAGE IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 86 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE OVERALL COMPARED TO 89 PERCENT OF AVERAGE LAST YEAR AT THIS
TIME.  ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO...OVERALL STORAGE IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN WAS AT 101 PERCENT OF AVERAGE...COMPARED TO 128 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

 RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             93            APR-JUL
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                91            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 91            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     88            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                  94            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       90            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   94            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            89            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       92            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    95            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       87            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                         109            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                         110            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE. FOLLOWING ARE THE
LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE
ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                       104            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        103            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                    102            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                  101            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  100            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                75            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   84            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   91            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       89            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THE FORECASTS BELOW ARE FOR OBSERVED FLOW AT THE DESIGNATED
LOCATIONS. THESE FORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR WATER
MANAGEMENT UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT OBSERVED FLOW.

ARKANSAS RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     98            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  LAS ANIMAS                     88            APR-SEP

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE FIRST OF SIX SCHEDULED OUTLOOKS FOR THE 2017
RUNOFF SEASON.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS. THE NEXT OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE FIRST PART OF FEBRUARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE.

LW



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