Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
730 PM MDT SUN MAY 10 2015

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF MAY 1 2015...

AS OF MAY 1...THE 2015 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 25 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS DOWN FROM 59 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND
LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.  THE
ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 89 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...UP
SLIGHTLY FROM 87 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER BUT LOWER THAN
99 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.

AT THE END OF APRIL...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 75 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM 77 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH EARLIER...BUT HIGHER THAN 67
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN...STORAGE WAS AT 79 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...WHICH WAS
DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH EARLIER...BUT
HIGHER THAN 67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE
THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             67            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                55            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 50            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     35            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                  81            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       35            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   37            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            78            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       42            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    40            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       71            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          28            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          41            APR-SEP

FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE.  FOLLOWING ARE THE LATEST
AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE ARKANSAS
BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW
SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        76            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                         78            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     74            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   70            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                   75            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                41            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   54            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   48            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       53            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 5TH OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE FINAL OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE ISSUED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF JUNE.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW


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