Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 060447 CCA
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-079-089-
099-101-105-109-119-110700-

WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
945 PM MST THU FEB 5 2015

...WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS
OF FEBRUARY 1 2015...

AS OF FEBRUARY 1...THE 2015 SNOWPACK WAS BELOW MEDIAN ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. ACROSS THE ARKANSAS BASIN OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...THE SNOWPACK WAS HIGHLY VARIABLE...RANGING FROM
ABOVE MEDIAN OVER THE HEADWATERS PORTION OF THE BASIN...TO BELOW
MEDIAN OVER THE SOUTHERN TRIBUTARY BASINS.

SPECIFICALLY...THE RIO GRANDE SNOWPACK MEASURED 61 PERCENT OF MEDIAN
OVERALL WHICH WAS DOWN FROM 71 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND
LOWER THAN 82 PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME.  THE
ARKANSAS BASIN SNOWPACK MEASURED 94 PERCENT OF MEDIAN OVERALL...DOWN
FROM 114 PERCENT OF MEDIAN A MONTH EARLIER AND LOWER THAN 100
PERCENT OF MEDIAN LAST YEAR AT THE SAME TIME. THE HEADWATERS PORTION
OF THE ARKANSAS BASIN MEASURED 108 PERCENT OF MEDIAN SNOWPACK...
WHILE THE COMBINED CUCHARAS AND HUERFANO BASINS...THE APISHAPA
BASIN...AND THE PURGATOIRE BASIN SAW JUST 65...53 AND 72 PERCENT OF
MEDIAN SNOWPACK...RESPECTIVELY.

AT THE END OF JANUARY...OVERALL RESERVOIR STORAGE WAS BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  STORAGE IN THE RIO
GRANDE BASIN WAS AT 69 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP SLIGHTLY FROM
67 PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH EARLIER...AND HIGHER THAN 65 PERCENT
OF AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.  IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN...
STORAGE WAS AT 80 PERCENT OF AVERAGE OVERALL...UP SLIGHTLY FROM 79
PERCENT OF AVERAGE A MONTH EARLIER...AND HIGHER THAN 64 PERCENT OF
AVERAGE A YEAR AGO AT THE SAME TIME.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING
RUNOFF SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING ARE THE
LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS IN THE
RIO GRANDE BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE SNOW SEASON:

RIO GRANDE RIVER
  THIRTY MILE BRIDGE             74            APR-SEP
  WAGON WHEEL GAP                75            APR-SEP
  NEAR DEL NORTE                 71            APR-SEP
SOUTH FORK RIO GRANDE RIVER
  SOUTH FORK                     65            APR-SEP
SAGUACHE CREEK
  NEAR SAGUACHE                  97            APR-SEP
ALAMOSA CREEK
  TERRACE RESERVOIR INFLOW       60            APR-SEP
LA JARA CREEK
  NEAR CAPULIN                   57            MAR-JUL
TRINCHERA CREEK
  ABOVE TURNERS RANCH            75            APR-SEP
CONEJOS RIVER
  PLATORO RESERVOIR INFLOW       66            APR-SEP
  NEAR MOGOTE                    66            APR-SEP
CULEBRA CREEK
  SAN LUIS                       74            APR-SEP
SAN ANTONIO RIVER
  ORTIZ                          49            APR-SEP
LOS PINOS
  ORTIZ                          63            APR-SEP


FOR THE ARKANSAS BASIN...STREAMFLOW VOLUMES FOR THE UPCOMING RUNOFF
SEASON ARE OUTLOOKED TO RANGE FROM ABOVE TO BELOW AVERAGE. FOLLOWING
ARE THE LATEST AVAILABLE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS
IN THE ARKANSAS BASIN ASSUMING NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON:

LOCATION                   % OF AVERAGE     RUNOFF PERIOD

ARKANSAS RIVER
  GRANITE                        96            APR-SEP
  SALIDA                        102            APR-SEP
  CANON CITY                     97            APR-SEP
  ABOVE PUEBLO                   95            APR-SEP
CHALK CREEK
  NEAR NATHROP                  100            APR-SEP
GRAPE CREEK
  NEAR WESTCLIFFE                84            APR-SEP
HUERFANO RIVER
  NEAR REDWING                   74            APR-SEP
CUCHARAS RIVER
  NEAR LA VETA                   65            APR-SEP
PURGATOIRE RIVER
  TRINIDAD                       70            APR-SEP

THESE FORECASTS REFLECT NATURAL FLOW ONLY.  ACTUAL OBSERVED FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY UPSTREAM WATER MANAGEMENT.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SNOWPACK AND ASSUMES
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SNOW SEASON.  IF THE
ACTUAL OBSERVED PRECIPITATION DEVIATES FROM NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL
OBSERVED RUNOFF WILL LIKELY BE DIFFERENT THAN THE FORECASTS IN THIS
OUTLOOK.  THIS IS THE 2ND OF 6 OUTLOOKS ISSUED FROM JANUARY THROUGH
JUNE.  THE NEXT OUTLOOK FOR THE 2015 RUNOFF SEASON WILL BE ISSUED
DURING THE FIRST PART OF MARCH.

USERS OF THIS PRODUCT ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR CONTINUED UPDATES ON THE WATER SUPPLY
SITUATION.  METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP THAT WOULD HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS AVAILABLE ON THE WORLD WIDE
WEB...VISIT THE PUEBLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/PUB.

THIS MESSAGE IS THE RESULT OF COORDINATED ACTIVITY BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION
SERVICE.

LW



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