Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FGUS75 KPUB 071907
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Water Supply Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1200 PM MST Tue Feb 7 2017

...Water Supply Outlook for South Central and Southeast Colorado as
of February 1 2017...

The onslaught of Pacific storms into Colorado that began in late
November and December continued through January.  The snowpack
continued to accumulate at an extraordinary rate ending up well
above normal by the end of the month.

As of February 1, snowpack in the Upper Rio Grande Basin of south
central Colorado was at 154 percent of median.  The highest snowpack
percentages were concentrated over the southernmost portion of the
basin.  The Conejos and Rio San Antonio Basins were at a combined
173 percent of median.  The Alamosa, Culebra and Trinchera Basins
were at a combined 171 percent of median.  Farther north, the
snowpack percentages were a little lower.  The Upper Rio Grande
Headwaters portion of the basin reported 138 percent of median
snowpack.  The combined Saguache and San Luis Basins reported 103
percent of median snowpack.

The February 1 snowpack in the Arkansas River Basin was at 164
percent of median overall.  Like the Rio Grande Basin, the greatest
snowpack percentages generally favored the southernmost basins.  The
Purgatoire basin reported 221 percent of median snowpack, the
Apishapa reported 174 percent of median and the combined Cucharas
and Huerfano Basins reported 142 percent of median snowpack. Farther
north, the Upper Arkansas Headwaters portion of the basin reported
169 percent of median snowpack.

At the end of January, overall reservoir storage was below average
across south central Colorado and near average across southeast
Colorado.  Storage in the Rio Grande Basin was at 89 percent of
average overall compared to 90 percent of average last year at this
time.  Across southeast Colorado, overall storage in the Arkansas
Basin was at 99 percent of average, compared to 125 percent of
average last year at this time.

For the Rio Grande Basin, streamflow volumes for the upcoming runoff
season are forecast to be above average.  Following are the latest
available streamflow forecasts for selected locations in the Rio
Grande Basin assuming normal precipitation for the remainder of the
snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

 Rio Grande River
  Thirty Mile Bridge            112            Apr-Jul
  Wagon Wheel Gap               112            Apr-Sep
  Near Del Norte                117            Apr-Sep
South Fork Rio Grande River
  South Fork                    118            Apr-Sep
Saguache Creek
  Near Saguache                 125            Apr-Sep
Alamosa Creek
  Terrace Reservoir Inflow      119            Apr-Sep
La Jara Creek
  Near Capulin                  133            Mar-Jul
Trinchera Creek
  Above Turners Ranch           175            Apr-Sep
Conejos River
  Platoro Reservoir Inflow      116            Apr-Sep
  Near Mogote                   129            Apr-Sep
Culebra Creek
  San Luis                      178            Apr-Sep
San Antonia River
  Ortiz                         160            Apr-Sep
Los Pinos
  Ortiz                         151            Apr-Sep

For the Arkansas Basin, streamflow volumes for the upcoming runoff
season are forecast to be above average.  Following are the latest
available streamflow forecasts for selected locations in the
Arkansas Basin assuming normal precipitation for the remainder of
the snow season:

Location                   % of Average     Runoff Period

Arkansas River
  Granite                       129            Apr-Sep
  Salida                        129            Apr-Sep
  Canon City                    129            Apr-Sep
  Above Pueblo                  129            Apr-Sep
Chalk Creek
  Near Nathrop                  127            Apr-Sep
Grape Creek
  Near Westcliffe               117            Apr-Sep
Huerfano River
  Near Redwing                  125            Apr-Sep
Cucharas River
  Near La Veta                  126            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Trinidad                      130            Apr-Sep

These forecasts reflect natural flow only.  Actual observed flow
will likely be affected by upstream water management.

The forecasts below are for 2 locations on the southeast Colorado
plains in the lower part of the Arkansas Basin.  These forecasts
include projected upstream water management expected to impact
flows.

Arkansas River
  Las Animas                    135            Apr-Sep
Purgatoire River
  Las Animas                    125            Apr-Sep

This outlook is based on recent observations of snowpack and assumes
normal precipitation for the remainder of the snow season.  If the
actual observed precipitation deviates from normal, then the actual
observed runoff will likely be different than the forecast in this
outlook.  This is the second of six scheduled outlooks for the 2017
runoff season.

Users of this product are encouraged to contact the National Weather
Service in Pueblo for continued updates on the water supply
situation.  Meteorological conditions could develop that would have
a significant impact on water supply forecasts.  The next outlook
will be issued during the first part of March.

For additional hydrologic products available on the world wide
web, visit the Pueblo National Weather Service web site at
weather.gov/pub.

This message is the result of collaboration between the National
Weather Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

LW


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