Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 161230
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0530 MST Sunday, November 16, 2014

This forecast is for Sunday, November 16, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 22.4 F/-5.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11171 ft MSL (4413 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 24.0 F/-4.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9646 ft MSL (2888 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 11/17....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Fair
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1700 MST)......... Little change
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... 11925 ft MSL (5167 ft AGL)
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1700 MST)................ Weak PVA
Potential height of wave....................... 14386 ft MSL (7628 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Monday 11/17.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:43:01 / 16:44:28 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 1 min 27 sec (601 min 27 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:43:56 MST... 32.24 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/16/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 15429 ft MSL (8671 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11914 ft MSL (5156 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +10.5
K index......................... -3.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -55.6 -68.1   285   58   30   1.7   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -53.0 -63.4   280   57   29   1.7   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -51.1 -60.0   280   52   27   1.2   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -50.4 -58.7   285   49   25   0.2   0.1      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -50.5 -58.9   280   46   24  -0.0  -0.0      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -50.5 -58.9   280   43   22  -0.0  -0.0      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -50.0 -58.0   275   40   20   1.3   0.7      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -49.1 -56.4   270   37   19   1.2   0.7      M     M       M      M    M
 29000  -48.4 -55.1   270   37   19   3.4   1.8   19.6  67.3    18.5      M    M
 28000  -47.4 -53.3   265   39   20   3.4   1.9   17.1  62.7    16.7      M    M
 27000  -46.3 -51.3   265   41   21   3.4   1.9   14.7  58.4    15.1      M    M
 26000  -45.1 -49.2   265   44   22   7.7   4.2   12.7  54.9    13.7      M    M
 25000  -42.7 -44.9   260   49   25   7.8   4.3   11.9  53.4    13.2      M    M
 24000  -40.4 -40.7   255   54   28   7.8   4.3   11.2  52.2    12.8      M    M
 23000  -38.0 -36.4   250   58   30   8.1   4.5   10.6  51.1    12.5      M    M
 22000  -35.6 -32.1   255   56   29   8.2   4.5   10.0  49.9    12.1      M    M
 21000  -33.1 -27.6   260   54   28   8.1   4.5    9.4  49.0    11.7      M    M
 20000  -30.8 -23.4   265   49   25   7.3   4.0    8.7  47.7    11.3      M    M
 19500  -29.7 -21.5   265   45   23   7.3   4.0    8.3  46.9    11.0      M    M
 19000  -28.6 -19.5   270   41   21   7.3   4.0    7.9  46.1    10.6      M    M
 18500  -27.6 -17.7   275   37   19   7.3   4.0    7.5  45.4    10.3      M    M
 18000  -26.5 -15.7   280   33   17   7.1   3.9    7.1  44.8    10.1      M    M
 17500  -25.4 -13.7   285   36   19   6.7   3.7    6.6  43.9     9.7      M    M
 17000  -24.4 -11.9   295   41   21   6.8   3.7    6.1  43.0     9.3      M    M
 16500  -23.4 -10.1   300   43   22   6.3   3.4    5.6  42.0     8.9      M    M
 16000  -22.5  -8.5   300   41   21   6.4   3.5    5.0  41.0     8.4      M    M
 15500  -21.6  -6.9   305   39   20   5.4   3.0    4.4  39.9     8.0      M    M
 15000  -20.4  -4.7   305   31   16   5.2   2.9    3.3  37.9     7.0      M    M
 14500  -19.7  -3.5   305   27   14   4.7   2.6    2.5  36.4     6.3      M    M
 14000  -19.0  -2.2   310   22   12   5.0   2.7    1.7  35.0     5.6      M    M
 13500  -18.3  -0.9   315   19   10   3.5   1.9    0.8  33.4     4.7      M    M
 13000  -17.8  -0.0   325   18    9   3.7   2.0   -0.2  31.6     3.8      M    M
 12500  -17.4   0.7   330   18    9   2.3   1.3   -1.3  29.7     2.8      M    M
 12000  -17.0   1.4   340   17    9   1.1   0.6   -2.4  27.7     1.7      M    M
 11750  -17.0   1.4   345   18   10   1.3   0.7   -3.2  26.3     1.0      M    M
 11500  -16.8   1.8   350   18    9   3.4   1.9   -3.7  25.3     0.5      M    M
 11250  -16.5   2.3   350   17    9   3.4   1.9   -4.2  24.4     0.0      M    M
 11000  -16.3   2.7   355   16    8   2.7   1.5   -4.7  23.5    -0.5    332  1.7
 10750  -16.1   3.0   355   15    8   3.2   1.8   -5.3  22.5    -1.0    319  1.6
 10500  -15.8   3.6   360   14    7   4.3   2.4   -5.7  21.7    -1.4    303  1.5
 10250  -15.5   4.1   360   13    7   4.3   2.3   -6.2  20.9    -1.9    286  1.5
 10000  -15.2   4.6   005   12    6   3.3   1.8   -6.6  20.1    -2.3    270  1.4
  9750  -15.0   5.0   005   12    6   2.1   1.1   -7.2  19.1    -2.8    257  1.3
  9500  -14.9   5.2   005   11    6   2.1   1.2   -7.8  18.0    -3.4    245  1.2
  9250  -14.7   5.5   010   10    5   2.9   1.6   -8.3  17.0    -4.0    233  1.2
  9000  -14.5   5.9   010    9    5   0.3   0.2   -8.9  16.0    -4.6    220  1.1
  8750  -14.6   5.7   360    7    4  -1.4  -0.7   -9.7  14.5    -5.4    216  1.1
  8500  -14.6   5.7   345    5    3   0.8   0.4  -10.5  13.1    -6.2    209  1.1
  8250  -14.6   5.7   315    4    2   0.8   0.4  -11.2  11.9    -6.9    199  1.0
  8000  -14.5   5.9   275    3    2  -0.3  -0.1  -11.9  10.6    -7.6    191  1.0
  7750  -14.6   5.7   240    5    2   0.6   0.3  -12.6   9.3    -8.4    184  0.9
  7500  -14.4   6.1   220    6    3   3.2   1.8  -13.2   8.2    -9.0    173  0.9
  7250  -14.2   6.4   215    7    4  -0.5  -0.3  -13.7   7.4    -9.5    160  0.8
  7000  -14.6   5.7   210    6    3  -8.3  -4.5  -14.2   6.4   -10.0    163  0.8
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/16/2014 at 0800 MST          |       11/16/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -24.8  LI... +7.5               | K index... -34.4  LI... +5.5
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.7 -68.3  285  52 27   1.3   0.7 | -56.0 -68.8  280  44 23   0.7   0.4
 45000 -53.9 -65.0  285  47 24   1.3   0.7 | -55.0 -67.0  285  41 21   0.7   0.4
 40000 -52.1 -61.8  290  41 21   1.1   0.6 | -54.0 -65.2  305  37 19   0.6   0.4
 38000 -51.5 -60.7  290  39 20   0.0   0.0 | -53.7 -64.7  315  37 19  -0.5  -0.3
 36000 -51.5 -60.7  295  35 18  -0.1  -0.0 | -53.9 -65.0  335  37 19  -0.3  -0.2
 34000 -51.5 -60.7  300  32 16  -0.0  -0.0 | -54.1 -65.4  350  41 21  -0.2  -0.1
 32000 -50.7 -59.3  315  27 14   2.2   1.2 | -52.1 -61.8  360  43 22   4.6   2.5
 30000 -49.4 -56.9  335  23 12   2.2   1.2 | -49.4 -56.9  005  43 22   4.6   2.5
 29000 -48.0 -54.4  345  22 11   4.9   2.7 | -47.7 -53.9  005  43 22   6.2   3.4
 28000 -46.6 -51.9  345  20 10   4.9   2.7 | -45.4 -49.7  010  41 21   6.3   3.4
 27000 -45.1 -49.2  345  19 10   4.9   2.7 | -43.5 -46.3  010  40 21   6.3   3.4
 26000 -43.5 -46.3  345  18  9   6.0   3.3 | -41.6 -42.9  010  38 20   6.7   3.7
 25000 -41.7 -43.1  320  18  9   6.0   3.3 | -39.6 -39.3  010  36 19   6.7   3.7
 24000 -40.0 -40.0  300  20 10   6.0   3.3 | -37.6 -35.7  010  34 18   6.7   3.7
 23000 -38.1 -36.6  290  24 13   7.8   4.3 | -35.6 -32.1  010  32 17   6.6   3.6
 22000 -35.7 -32.3  285  28 14   7.8   4.3 | -33.6 -28.5  010  31 16   6.6   3.6
 21000 -33.4 -28.1  285  31 16   7.8   4.3 | -31.7 -25.1  010  30 15   6.6   3.6
 20000 -31.0 -23.8  285  32 17   8.6   4.7 | -29.7 -21.5  010  29 15   6.3   3.5
 19500 -29.7 -21.5  290  32 17   8.7   4.7 | -28.8 -19.8  010  29 15   6.3   3.5
 19000 -28.4 -19.1  290  32 17   8.7   4.7 | -27.8 -18.0  010  29 15   6.3   3.5
 18500 -27.1 -16.8  290  32 17   8.6   4.7 | -26.9 -16.4  010  28 15   6.3   3.5
 18000 -25.8 -14.4  290  32 17   7.6   4.2 | -26.0 -14.8  010  28 14   6.1   3.3
 17500 -24.8 -12.6  295  30 15   6.0   3.3 | -25.1 -13.2  010  28 14   5.9   3.3
 17000 -23.9 -11.0  300  27 14   6.2   3.4 | -24.2 -11.6  010  28 14   6.0   3.3
 16500 -23.2  -9.8  305  24 13   3.4   1.8 | -23.2  -9.8  010  27 14   6.3   3.5
 16000 -22.7  -8.9  310  22 11   3.6   2.0 | -22.3  -8.1  010  27 14   6.3   3.5
 15500 -22.1  -7.8  315  20 10   4.0   2.2 | -21.3  -6.3  005  27 14   6.5   3.5
 15000 -21.5  -6.7  315  20 10   4.0   2.2 | -20.4  -4.7  005  26 13   6.5   3.6
 14500 -20.5  -4.9  320  19 10   4.9   2.7 | -19.5  -3.1  005  26 13   5.6   3.1
 14000 -19.8  -3.6  320  19 10   4.9   2.7 | -18.2  -0.8  360  25 13   5.4   3.0
 13500 -19.2  -2.6  320  20 10   4.0   2.2 | -17.5   0.5  355  24 12   4.7   2.6
 13000 -18.6  -1.5  325  20 11   4.1   2.2 | -16.8   1.8  355  24 12   4.7   2.6
 12500 -18.0  -0.4  330  21 11   3.7   2.0 | -16.0   3.2  350  23 12   5.3   2.9
 12000 -17.4   0.7  330  21 11   1.7   0.9 | -15.2   4.6  345  23 12   4.2   2.3
 11750 -17.4   0.7  335  22 11   2.2   1.2 | -15.0   5.0  345  23 12   4.0   2.2
 11500 -17.0   1.4  340  21 11   5.3   2.9 | -14.6   5.7  345  22 12   4.8   2.7
 11250 -16.7   1.9  340  21 11   4.9   2.7 | -14.3   6.3  340  22 11   4.8   2.6
 11000 -16.3   2.7  345  21 11   3.5   1.9 | -13.9   7.0  340  22 11   4.1   2.3
 10750 -16.1   3.0  345  21 11   4.2   2.3 | -13.7   7.3  335  22 11   3.4   1.8
 10500 -15.7   3.7  345  20 10   6.2   3.4 | -13.4   7.9  335  21 11   3.7   2.0
 10250 -15.2   4.6  350  20 10   5.9   3.2 | -13.1   8.4  335  21 11   3.3   1.8
 10000 -14.8   5.4  350  19 10   5.3   2.9 | -12.9   8.8  335  21 11   4.3   2.4
  9750 -14.4   6.1  350  19 10   5.5   3.0 | -12.5   9.5  335  20 10   5.5   3.0
  9500 -14.0   6.8  350  18  9   6.3   3.4 | -12.1  10.2  330  20 10   5.4   3.0
  9250 -13.5   7.7  350  18  9   6.3   3.5 | -11.7  10.9  330  19 10   5.6   3.1
  9000 -13.1   8.4  350  17  9   5.4   3.0 | -11.3  11.7  330  19 10   5.5   3.0
  8750 -12.7   9.1  345  16  8   5.5   3.0 | -10.9  12.4  325  19 10   7.4   4.1
  8500 -12.2  10.0  345  14  7   7.4   4.1 | -10.2  13.6  325  18  9   9.6   5.3
  8250 -11.7  10.9  340  13  7   6.0   3.3 |  -9.5  14.9  325  17  9   9.1   5.0
  8000 -11.4  11.5  335  12  6   1.3   0.7 |  -8.9  16.0  325  16  8   8.4   4.6
  7750 -11.4  11.5  330  11  6   3.6   2.0 |  -8.3  17.1  320  14  7   8.3   4.6
  7500 -10.8  12.6  320  10  5   8.8   4.8 |  -7.7  18.1  320  13  6   8.1   4.5
  7250 -10.5  13.1  310   9  4  -5.2  -2.9 |  -7.2  19.0  320  11  6   6.5   3.6
  7000 -11.9  10.6  305   7  4 -27.9 -15.3 |  -6.8  19.8  320  10  5   4.7   2.6
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           11/16/2014 at 1400 MST          |       11/16/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -20.5  LI... +6.3               | K index... -10.1  LI... +7.5
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.2 -71.0  285  47 24   0.4   0.2 | -57.0 -70.6  290  40 21  -0.2  -0.1
 45000 -56.6 -69.9  290  44 23   0.4   0.2 | -57.2 -71.0  295  46 24  -0.2  -0.1
 40000 -55.5 -67.9  305  40 21   0.8   0.4 | -57.4 -71.3  310  56 29  -0.1  -0.0
 38000 -55.1 -67.2  310  40 21   0.0   0.0 | -57.4 -71.3  315  60 31   1.0   0.6
 36000 -55.0 -67.0  320  46 24   0.1   0.0 | -56.7 -70.1  320  61 31   1.2   0.6
 34000 -55.0 -67.0  330  53 27  -0.0  -0.0 | -55.9 -68.6  325  62 32   0.7   0.4
 32000 -52.7 -62.9  335  53 28   4.9   2.7 | -53.0 -63.4  325  63 32   5.3   2.9
 30000 -49.7 -57.5  340  53 27   4.8   2.6 | -49.8 -57.6  325  63 32   5.4   3.0
 29000 -47.9 -54.2  340  51 26   6.8   3.7 | -47.8 -54.0  325  61 32   6.9   3.8
 28000 -45.9 -50.6  345  49 25   6.8   3.7 | -45.7 -50.3  325  60 31   6.9   3.8
 27000 -43.3 -45.9  345  46 24   6.8   3.7 | -43.6 -46.5  325  58 30   6.9   3.8
 26000 -41.2 -42.2  350  44 23   7.5   4.1 | -41.5 -42.7  325  56 29   7.1   3.9
 25000 -38.9 -38.0  350  43 22   7.5   4.1 | -39.4 -38.9  325  54 28   7.1   3.9
 24000 -36.7 -34.1  350  42 22   7.5   4.1 | -37.2 -35.0  325  52 27   7.1   3.9
 23000 -34.4 -29.9  350  41 21   7.7   4.2 | -35.0 -31.0  325  50 26   8.0   4.4
 22000 -32.1 -25.8  350  39 20   7.7   4.2 | -32.6 -26.7  325  48 25   8.0   4.4
 21000 -29.8 -21.6  350  38 20   7.7   4.2 | -30.2 -22.4  325  46 24   8.0   4.4
 20000 -27.7 -17.9  350  37 19   6.7   3.7 | -27.7 -17.9  325  43 22   8.4   4.6
 19500 -26.7 -16.1  350  36 19   6.7   3.7 | -26.5 -15.7  325  40 21   8.4   4.6
 19000 -25.7 -14.3  350  35 18   6.7   3.7 | -25.2 -13.4  320  38 20   8.4   4.6
 18500 -24.7 -12.5  350  35 18   6.8   3.7 | -24.0 -11.2  320  36 19   8.4   4.6
 18000 -23.8 -10.8  350  34 18   5.7   3.1 | -22.7  -8.9  315  34 18   8.6   4.7
 17500 -23.0  -9.4  350  34 17   5.4   3.0 | -21.4  -6.5  315  34 18   8.6   4.7
 17000 -22.2  -8.0  345  33 17   5.4   3.0 | -20.1  -4.2  315  34 17   7.5   4.1
 16500 -21.3  -6.3  345  32 17   5.6   3.1 | -19.3  -2.7  325  35 18   2.9   1.6
 16000 -20.5  -4.9  345  32 16   5.6   3.1 | -18.8  -1.8  325  37 19   1.8   1.0
 15500 -19.7  -3.5  345  31 16   5.9   3.2 | -18.8  -1.8  330  39 20   0.7   0.4
 15000 -18.8  -1.8  345  31 16   5.9   3.2 | -18.7  -1.7  335  40 21   1.1   0.6
 14500 -18.0  -0.4  345  31 16   5.4   2.9 | -18.3  -0.9  340  42 22   3.3   1.8
 14000 -16.8   1.8  345  30 16   5.1   2.8 | -17.9  -0.2  345  44 23   3.3   1.8
 13500 -16.2   2.8  340  30 15   3.4   1.9 | -17.2   1.0  345  45 23   4.8   2.6
 13000 -15.6   3.9  340  30 15   3.6   2.0 | -16.6   2.1  345  45 23   4.7   2.6
 12500 -15.1   4.8  340  30 15   3.1   1.7 | -15.8   3.6  345  43 22   6.0   3.3
 12000 -14.6   5.7  340  30 15   2.1   1.1 | -14.9   5.2  345  41 21   4.2   2.3
 11750 -14.5   5.9  340  30 15   2.4   1.3 | -14.6   5.7  345  38 20   4.8   2.6
 11500 -14.2   6.4  340  30 15   3.5   1.9 | -14.2   6.4  345  37 19   6.6   3.6
 11250 -14.0   6.8  340  30 15   3.2   1.8 | -13.7   7.3  340  35 18   6.3   3.5
 11000 -13.7   7.3  340  29 15   3.3   1.8 | -13.2   8.2  340  34 17   5.8   3.2
 10750 -13.5   7.7  340  29 15   4.9   2.7 | -12.8   9.0  340  32 17   6.8   3.7
 10500 -13.0   8.6  340  28 14   6.2   3.4 | -12.2  10.0  340  32 16   8.1   4.4
 10250 -12.6   9.3  345  27 14   5.9   3.2 | -11.6  11.1  340  31 16   7.9   4.3
 10000 -12.1  10.2  345  26 13   5.9   3.2 | -11.0  12.2  335  30 16   7.2   3.9
  9750 -11.7  10.9  345  25 13   7.4   4.1 | -10.5  13.1  335  29 15   7.7   4.2
  9500 -11.1  12.0  340  23 12   8.7   4.8 |  -9.9  14.2  335  27 14   9.1   5.0
  9250 -10.4  13.3  340  22 11   8.4   4.6 |  -9.2  15.4  330  25 13   8.7   4.8
  9000  -9.8  14.4  340  21 11   8.2   4.5 |  -8.6  16.5  330  23 12   7.1   3.9
  8750  -9.2  15.4  335  20 10   8.5   4.7 |  -8.1  17.4  330  21 11   5.9   3.3
  8500  -8.6  16.5  335  19 10   9.3   5.1 |  -7.6  18.3  330  19 10   6.8   3.7
  8250  -7.9  17.8  335  18  9   9.0   5.0 |  -7.2  19.0  330  18  9   5.6   3.1
  8000  -7.3  18.9  330  16  8   8.8   4.8 |  -6.9  19.6  330  16  8   2.8   1.5
  7750  -6.6  20.1  330  14  7   8.5   4.7 |  -6.6  20.1  330  15  8   5.6   3.1
  7500  -6.0  21.2  335  12  6   7.9   4.3 |  -6.1  21.0  330  13  7   7.1   3.9
  7250  -5.5  22.1  335  11  6   5.4   2.9 |  -6.0  21.2  330  11  6  -9.8  -5.4
  7000  -5.3  22.5  335   9  5   1.8   1.0 |  -7.7  18.1  325   9  4 -30.7 -16.8
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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