Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 151244
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0644 MDT Wednesday, October 15, 2014

This forecast is for Wednesday, October 15, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 74.4 F/23.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 392 ft/min (2.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11554 ft MSL (4796 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 76.0 F/24.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9439 ft MSL (2681 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/16..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Increasing
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 46444 ft MSL (39686 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 10/16........ Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:08:35 / 18:21:53 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 13 min 18 sec (673 min 18 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:44:47 MDT... 42.38 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/15/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16007 ft MSL (9249 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 22948 ft MSL (16190 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19979 ft MSL (13221 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +4.8
K index......................... -21.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -69.1 -92.4   255   45   23   4.8   2.6      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -62.0 -79.6   260   53   27   4.4   2.4      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -55.3 -67.5   280   46   24   6.6   3.6      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -51.5 -60.7   285   40   21   6.4   3.5      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -47.6 -53.7   290   35   18   6.4   3.5      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -43.5 -46.3   285   31   16   7.1   3.9      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -38.7 -37.7   275   27   14   7.0   3.8      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -33.5 -28.3   275   24   12   9.0   4.9   35.7  96.2     8.7      M    M
 29000  -30.8 -23.4   280   23   12   9.0   4.9   35.4  95.8     8.6      M    M
 28000  -28.1 -18.6   280   22   11   8.9   4.9   35.3  95.5     8.6      M    M
 27000  -25.5 -13.9   280   22   11   8.8   4.8   34.8  94.6     8.3      M    M
 26000  -22.8  -9.0   285   23   12   8.8   4.8   34.4  94.0     8.1      M    M
 25000  -20.2  -4.4   285   23   12   8.9   4.9   34.2  93.5     8.0      M    M
 24000  -18.1  -0.6   280   23   12   6.4   3.5   33.1  91.5     7.2      M    M
 23000  -16.2   2.8   275   22   11   6.4   3.5   31.8  89.3     6.2      M    M
 22000  -14.3   6.3   270   21   11   6.5   3.6   30.7  87.3     5.3      M    M
 21000  -12.1  10.2   275   19   10   7.5   4.1   29.8  85.7     4.6      M    M
 20000   -9.8  14.4   275   17    9   7.5   4.1   29.0  84.3     4.0      M    M
 19500   -8.7  16.3   280   16    8   7.5   4.1   28.7  83.6     3.7      M    M
 19000   -7.6  18.3   280   15    8   7.9   4.3   28.4  83.0     3.4      M    M
 18500   -6.4  20.5   280   14    7   7.9   4.3   28.0  82.5     3.1      M    M
 18000   -5.2  22.6   280   13    7   8.0   4.4   27.7  81.9     2.9      M    M
 17500   -4.0  24.8   280   13    7   8.1   4.5   27.4  81.4     2.6      M    M
 17000   -2.8  27.0   280   13    7   8.1   4.5   27.2  80.9     2.4      M    M
 16500   -1.6  29.1   275   13    7   8.4   4.6   26.9  80.5     2.2      M    M
 16000    0.3  32.5   270   13    7   8.4   4.6   26.6  79.8     1.9      M    M
 15500    1.6  34.9   270   12    6   8.6   4.7   26.4  79.5     1.7      M    M
 15000    2.9  37.2   265   12    6   8.6   4.7   26.2  79.1     1.5      M    M
 14500    4.2  39.6   265   11    6   8.5   4.7   26.0  78.8     1.4      M    M
 14000    5.5  41.9   265   11    5   8.5   4.7   25.8  78.4     1.2      M    M
 13500    6.7  44.1   265   10    5   8.5   4.7   25.6  78.1     1.0      M    M
 13000    8.0  46.4   260   10    5   8.4   4.6   25.4  77.7     0.8      M    M
 12500    9.3  48.7   260   10    5   7.8   4.3   25.2  77.4     0.6      M    M
 12000   10.4  50.7   260   11    6   7.8   4.3   24.8  76.7     0.2      M    M
 11750   11.0  51.8   260   12    6   7.9   4.3   24.7  76.4     0.1      M    M
 11500   11.5  52.7   260   12    6   7.2   4.0   24.5  76.1    -0.1    380  1.9
 11250   12.0  53.6   260   13    7   6.1   3.3   24.3  75.7    -0.3    359  1.8
 11000   12.4  54.3   260   14    7   6.2   3.4   24.0  75.2    -0.7    339  1.7
 10750   12.9  55.2   255   14    7   6.5   3.6   23.7  74.7    -0.9    318  1.6
 10500   13.3  55.9   255   15    8   6.2   3.4   23.5  74.2    -1.2    297  1.5
 10250   13.7  56.7   255   16    8   3.8   2.1   23.1  73.6    -1.6    279  1.4
 10000   13.9  57.0   250   16    8   3.7   2.1   22.6  72.7    -2.1    265  1.3
  9750   14.2  57.6   245   16    8   5.3   2.9   22.2  72.0    -2.5    248  1.3
  9500   14.5  58.1   245   16    8   4.6   2.5   21.9  71.3    -2.9    231  1.2
  9250   14.8  58.6   240   17    9   3.0   1.6   21.4  70.5    -3.4    216  1.1
  9000   15.0  59.0   235   17    9   2.1   1.2   20.8  69.5    -4.0    204  1.0
  8750   15.1  59.2   235   17    9   3.2   1.7   20.3  68.5    -4.6    191  1.0
  8500   15.3  59.5   230   17    9   1.4   0.8   19.8  67.6    -5.1    178  0.9
  8250   15.2  59.4   230   16    8  -3.0  -1.6   18.9  66.1    -6.0    173  0.9
  8000   15.0  59.0   225   15    8  -2.1  -1.2   18.0  64.3    -7.0    174  0.9
  7750   14.7  58.5   225   15    8  -8.1  -4.4   17.0  62.6    -8.0    174  0.9
  7500   13.2  55.8   220   15    8 -28.7 -15.7   14.9  58.8   -10.2    211  1.1
  7250   10.5  50.9   230   12    6 -40.0 -21.9   11.8  53.3   -13.3    286  1.5
  7000    7.7  45.9   240    9    5 -33.8 -18.5    8.7  47.6   -16.4    363  1.8
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           10/15/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       10/15/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... -20.9  LI... +1.5               | K index... -21.2  LI... +1.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.0                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -69.3 -92.7  250  46 24   4.1   2.3 | -68.8 -91.8  245  45 23   3.6   2.0
 45000 -63.1 -81.6  260  51 26   4.1   2.3 | -63.3 -81.9  255  50 26   4.0   2.2
 40000 -56.5 -69.7  280  52 27   8.3   4.5 | -56.9 -70.4  265  61 32   8.8   4.8
 38000 -51.8 -61.2  280  44 23   7.9   4.3 | -51.9 -61.4  265  50 26   8.3   4.6
 36000 -47.0 -52.6  280  36 19   7.9   4.3 | -46.9 -52.4  265  39 20   8.2   4.5
 34000 -42.8 -45.0  275  32 16   6.8   3.7 | -42.6 -44.7  260  37 19   6.8   3.7
 32000 -38.2 -36.8  265  29 15   6.7   3.7 | -38.0 -36.4  250  38 19   6.7   3.7
 30000 -33.4 -28.1  260  29 15   8.1   4.5 | -33.3 -27.9  250  38 20   8.1   4.4
 29000 -31.0 -23.8  260  29 15   8.1   4.5 | -30.9 -23.6  250  39 20   8.1   4.4
 28000 -28.5 -19.3  260  30 15   8.8   4.8 | -28.4 -19.1  250  39 20   8.3   4.5
 27000 -25.8 -14.4  260  30 15   9.3   5.1 | -25.9 -14.6  250  36 19   8.4   4.6
 26000 -23.0  -9.4  260  30 15   9.3   5.1 | -23.4 -10.1  245  34 17   8.4   4.6
 25000 -20.2  -4.4  260  30 15   9.3   5.1 | -20.8  -5.4  240  31 16   8.6   4.7
 24000 -18.1  -0.6  260  28 14   6.5   3.6 | -18.7  -1.7  240  30 15   6.7   3.7
 23000 -16.1   3.0  260  25 13   6.5   3.6 | -16.7   1.9  245  29 15   6.7   3.7
 22000 -14.2   6.4  260  23 12   6.6   3.6 | -14.7   5.5  245  28 14   6.8   3.7
 21000 -12.1  10.2  255  21 11   7.0   3.8 | -12.5   9.5  245  26 13   7.7   4.2
 20000 -10.0  14.0  255  19 10   7.0   3.8 | -10.1  13.8  245  24 12   7.7   4.2
 19500  -8.9  16.0  255  18  9   6.9   3.8 |  -9.0  15.8  245  23 12   7.7   4.2
 19000  -7.8  18.0  255  17  9   8.1   4.4 |  -7.8  18.0  245  22 11   8.2   4.5
 18500  -6.6  20.1  255  16  8   8.2   4.5 |  -6.6  20.1  245  21 11   8.2   4.5
 18000  -5.4  22.3  255  15  8   8.2   4.5 |  -5.3  22.5  245  21 11   8.4   4.6
 17500  -4.1  24.6  260  15  8   8.5   4.7 |  -4.0  24.8  245  20 10   8.8   4.8
 17000  -2.8  27.0  260  14  7   8.5   4.6 |  -2.7  27.1  245  20 10   8.7   4.8
 16500  -1.5  29.3  260  14  7   8.8   4.8 |  -1.4  29.5  245  19 10   8.9   4.9
 16000  -0.2  31.6  265  13  7   8.8   4.8 |  -0.1  31.8  245  19 10   8.9   4.9
 15500   1.7  35.1  265  12  6   8.9   4.9 |   1.9  35.4  250  19 10   8.6   4.7
 15000   3.1  37.6  270  12  6   8.9   4.9 |   3.2  37.8  250  18  9   8.7   4.8
 14500   4.4  39.9  270  12  6   8.7   4.8 |   4.5  40.1  250  18  9   8.7   4.8
 14000   5.7  42.3  270  11  6   8.7   4.8 |   5.8  42.4  250  18  9   8.8   4.8
 13500   7.0  44.6  275  11  6   8.7   4.8 |   7.2  45.0  250  17  9   8.8   4.8
 13000   8.3  46.9  275  11  6   8.6   4.7 |   8.5  47.3  250  17  9   8.7   4.8
 12500   9.6  49.3  270  11  5   8.2   4.5 |   9.8  49.6  250  17  9   7.7   4.2
 12000  10.8  51.4  275  10  5   8.1   4.4 |  10.9  51.6  250  16  8   8.6   4.7
 11750  11.4  52.5  270  10  5   8.2   4.5 |  11.6  52.9  250  16  8   8.3   4.6
 11500  12.0  53.6  270  10  5   7.6   4.2 |  12.2  54.0  250  16  8   8.2   4.5
 11250  12.5  54.5  270  10  5   7.2   3.9 |  12.8  55.0  250  16  8   7.7   4.2
 11000  13.0  55.4  265  11  5   7.6   4.2 |  13.4  56.1  250  16  8   7.6   4.2
 10750  13.6  56.5  265  11  6   7.8   4.3 |  13.9  57.0  250  15  8   7.7   4.2
 10500  14.1  57.4  260  12  6   7.3   4.0 |  14.5  58.1  250  15  8   7.6   4.2
 10250  14.6  58.3  260  12  6   5.2   2.9 |  15.0  59.0  250  15  8   6.9   3.8
 10000  15.0  59.0  255  13  6   5.6   3.1 |  15.5  59.9  250  15  8   7.0   3.9
  9750  15.4  59.7  255  13  7   7.3   4.0 |  16.1  61.0  250  15  8   7.6   4.2
  9500  15.9  60.6  250  14  7   6.3   3.5 |  16.6  61.9  250  14  7   7.1   3.9
  9250  16.3  61.3  250  14  7   4.8   2.6 |  17.1  62.8  250  14  7   5.5   3.0
  9000  16.6  61.9  245  14  7   4.0   2.2 |  17.4  63.3  250  13  7   4.8   2.6
  8750  16.9  62.4  245  14  7   5.3   2.9 |  17.7  63.9  250  13  7   5.6   3.1
  8500  17.2  63.0  240  14  7   2.7   1.5 |  18.0  64.4  245  12  6   5.9   3.2
  8250  17.1  62.8  240  14  7  -3.3  -1.8 |  18.3  64.9  240  11  6   5.6   3.1
  8000  16.8  62.2  240  14  7  -2.1  -1.2 |  18.6  65.5  235   9  5   4.9   2.7
  7750  16.5  61.7  240  13  7  -9.6  -5.3 |  18.9  66.0  225   8  4   7.3   4.0
  7500  15.1  59.2  235  14  7 -20.3 -11.1 |  19.6  67.3  215   8  4   9.7   5.3
  7250  13.6  56.5  240  11  6 -20.0 -11.0 |  20.3  68.5  210   8  4   8.9   4.9
  7000  12.0  53.6  250   8  4 -21.0 -11.5 |  20.9  69.6  210   7  4   9.6   5.3
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           10/15/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       10/15/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... -13.2  LI... +1.6               | K index... -7.2  LI... +3.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.3                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -68.9 -92.0  250  49 25   2.4   1.3 | -68.4 -91.1  260  52 27   2.9   1.6
 45000 -64.5 -84.1  255  59 31   4.8   2.6 | -63.7 -82.7  260  68 35   3.9   2.1
 40000 -57.0 -70.6  255  71 37   9.1   5.0 | -57.5 -71.5  255  74 38   9.0   5.0
 38000 -51.7 -61.1  255  54 28   8.7   4.8 | -52.3 -62.1  255  67 34   8.7   4.7
 36000 -46.5 -51.7  245  38 19   8.6   4.7 | -47.1 -52.8  250  60 31   8.6   4.7
 34000 -42.3 -44.1  245  37 19   6.4   3.5 | -42.6 -44.7  250  57 29   7.2   3.9
 32000 -37.9 -36.2  250  43 22   6.4   3.5 | -37.7 -35.9  250  55 28   7.0   3.9
 30000 -33.5 -28.3  245  45 23   7.7   4.2 | -33.7 -28.7  245  48 25   6.7   3.7
 29000 -31.1 -24.0  245  46 24   7.7   4.2 | -31.6 -24.9  240  45 23   6.7   3.7
 28000 -28.8 -19.8  245  46 24   8.1   4.4 | -29.6 -21.3  235  41 21   7.5   4.1
 27000 -26.3 -15.3  245  45 23   8.5   4.6 | -27.0 -16.6  235  41 21   8.9   4.9
 26000 -23.7 -10.7  245  44 23   8.5   4.6 | -24.3 -11.7  240  42 21   8.9   4.9
 25000 -21.2  -6.2  240  43 22   8.6   4.7 | -21.6  -6.9  245  42 22   9.1   5.0
 24000 -18.9  -2.0  240  41 21   7.1   3.9 | -19.2  -2.6  245  41 21   7.6   4.2
 23000 -16.8   1.8  240  38 20   7.2   3.9 | -16.9   1.6  245  40 21   7.6   4.2
 22000 -14.7   5.5  245  35 18   7.2   3.9 | -14.6   5.7  245  39 20   7.6   4.2
 21000 -12.3   9.9  240  34 18   8.2   4.5 | -12.3   9.9  245  38 19   7.8   4.3
 20000  -9.8  14.4  240  33 17   8.2   4.5 | -10.0  14.0  245  37 19   7.8   4.3
 19500  -8.6  16.5  240  33 17   8.2   4.5 |  -8.8  16.2  250  36 19   7.8   4.3
 19000  -7.3  18.9  240  32 17   7.9   4.4 |  -7.6  18.3  250  36 18   8.3   4.6
 18500  -6.2  20.8  240  31 16   7.9   4.3 |  -6.3  20.7  250  35 18   8.5   4.6
 18000  -5.0  23.0  240  30 16   8.0   4.4 |  -5.1  22.8  250  35 18   8.4   4.6
 17500  -3.7  25.3  240  30 15   8.5   4.6 |  -3.9  25.0  250  34 18   7.7   4.2
 17000  -2.5  27.5  240  29 15   8.4   4.6 |  -2.7  27.1  255  34 17   7.8   4.3
 16500  -1.2  29.8  240  29 15   8.5   4.7 |  -1.6  29.1  255  33 17   7.4   4.1
 16000   0.1  32.2  240  29 15   8.5   4.7 |  -0.5  31.1  255  32 17   7.3   4.0
 15500   2.0  35.6  240  28 15   8.5   4.6 |   1.1  34.0  260  30 16   6.9   3.8
 15000   3.3  37.9  240  28 14   8.5   4.6 |   2.1  35.8  265  28 15   6.9   3.8
 14500   4.5  40.1  240  28 14   8.3   4.6 |   3.2  37.8  265  26 14   7.5   4.1
 14000   5.8  42.4  245  28 14   8.3   4.5 |   4.3  39.7  270  23 12   7.9   4.3
 13500   7.0  44.6  245  27 14   8.3   4.6 |   5.4  41.7  270  20 10   8.6   4.7
 13000   8.3  46.9  245  27 14   8.4   4.6 |   6.8  44.2  275  17  9  10.1   5.5
 12500   9.5  49.1  250  26 14   7.0   3.8 |   8.3  46.9  270  14  7   8.4   4.6
 12000  10.5  50.9  250  23 12   8.5   4.7 |   9.6  49.3  275  13  7  10.1   5.6
 11750  11.1  52.0  250  21 11   8.7   4.8 |  10.3  50.5  275  13  7  10.1   5.5
 11500  11.8  53.2  250  20 10   6.6   3.6 |  11.1  52.0  275  13  7   8.5   4.7
 11250  12.1  53.8  255  19 10   7.3   4.0 |  11.6  52.9  270  13  7   8.5   4.6
 11000  12.8  55.0  250  18  9  10.1   5.5 |  12.4  54.3  270  13  7  10.1   5.6
 10750  13.5  56.3  250  16  8   9.4   5.1 |  13.1  55.6  270  13  6   9.7   5.3
 10500  14.2  57.6  250  15  8   9.5   5.2 |  13.8  56.8  270  12  6   9.9   5.4
 10250  14.9  58.8  250  14  7   6.7   3.7 |  14.5  58.1  265  12  6   6.8   3.8
 10000  15.3  59.5  245  13  7   7.7   4.3 |  15.0  59.0  260  12  6   7.6   4.2
  9750  16.0  60.8  240  12  6  10.5   5.8 |  15.7  60.3  255  12  6  10.5   5.8
  9500  16.8  62.2  235  11  6   9.7   5.3 |  16.4  61.5  255  12  6   9.7   5.3
  9250  17.4  63.3  225  11  5   8.3   4.5 |  17.1  62.8  250  12  6   7.4   4.0
  9000  18.0  64.4  220  11  5   7.8   4.3 |  17.5  63.5  240  12  6   6.2   3.4
  8750  18.6  65.5  215  10  5   9.8   5.4 |  18.1  64.6  235  12  6   8.6   4.7
  8500  19.4  66.9  210  10  5  10.3   5.7 |  18.7  65.7  230  12  6   8.6   4.7
  8250  20.2  68.4  205  10  5  10.0   5.5 |  19.3  66.7  225  12  6   6.4   3.5
  8000  20.9  69.6  205  10  5  10.1   5.5 |  19.7  67.5  215  12  6   4.5   2.4
  7750  21.6  70.9  200  10  5   9.5   5.2 |  20.0  68.0  210  11  6   7.7   4.2
  7500  22.3  72.1  200  10  5   8.6   4.7 |  20.6  69.1  205  11  6   3.8   2.1
  7250  22.9  73.2  200  10  5   8.6   4.7 |  20.4  68.7  200  10  5  -7.1  -3.9
  7000  23.5  74.3  200   9  5   8.5   4.7 |  19.6  67.3  195   7  4  -7.5  -4.1
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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