Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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UXUS97 KPUB 181016
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0416 MDT Thursday, August 18, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, August 18, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 71.3 F/21.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 636 ft/min (3.2 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 17865 ft MSL (11107 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 80.0 F/27.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0845 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 14850 ft MSL (8093 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 08/19....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:15:43 / 19:50:11 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 34 min 28 sec (814 min 28 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:02:35 MDT... 63.80 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/18/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15143 ft MSL (8385 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15080 ft MSL (8322 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15891 ft MSL (9133 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.5
K index......................... +20.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -60.6 -77.1   275   20   11   2.5   1.4      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -57.4 -71.3   265   25   13   1.1   0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -55.1 -67.2   260   19   10   6.5   3.6      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -51.4 -60.5   265   18    9   6.2   3.4      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -47.7 -53.9   270   17    9   6.2   3.4      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -42.3 -44.1   270   15    8   8.5   4.7      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -37.1 -34.8   265   13    6   8.4   4.6      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -31.9 -25.4   265   10    5   8.8   4.8   37.7  99.9     8.5      M    M
 29000  -29.3 -20.7   265    8    4   8.8   4.8   37.4  99.3     8.4      M    M
 28000  -26.7 -16.1   265    7    4   8.3   4.6   37.1  98.9     8.3      M    M
 27000  -24.2 -11.6   265    6    3   8.1   4.5   36.4  97.5     7.8      M    M
 26000  -21.8  -7.2   255    4    2   8.1   4.5   35.8  96.5     7.4      M    M
 25000  -19.3  -2.7   245    3    2   8.1   4.4   35.3  95.6     7.0      M    M
 24000  -17.4   0.7   255    3    1   6.4   3.5   34.2  93.5     6.1      M    M
 23000  -15.5   4.1   270    3    1   6.5   3.5   32.9  91.3     5.1      M    M
 22000  -13.5   7.7   285    3    2   6.4   3.5   31.9  89.4     4.2      M    M
 21000  -11.7  10.9   305    4    2   6.2   3.4   30.6  87.0     3.2      M    M
 20000   -9.8  14.4   315    5    3   6.2   3.4   29.3  84.8     2.1      M    M
 19500   -8.9  16.0   320    6    3   6.1   3.4   28.8  83.8     1.6      M    M
 19000   -8.0  17.6   325    6    3   6.8   3.7   28.2  82.8     1.1      M    M
 18500   -7.0  19.4   330    6    3   6.9   3.8   27.7  81.9     0.7      M    M
 18000   -6.0  21.2   335    7    4   6.9   3.8   27.3  81.1     0.2      M    M
 17500   -4.9  23.2   335    7    4   7.1   3.9   26.8  80.2    -0.2   1011  5.1
 17000   -3.9  25.0   340    8    4   7.1   3.9   26.4  79.4    -0.6    965  4.9
 16500   -2.8  27.0   340    9    4   6.7   3.7   25.9  78.6    -1.1    920  4.7
 16000   -1.4  29.5   335    9    5   6.8   3.7   25.2  77.3    -1.9    854  4.3
 15500   -0.5  31.1   330    9    5   7.0   3.8   24.7  76.4    -2.4    811  4.1
 15000    0.5  32.9   325    9    5   7.1   3.9   24.2  75.6    -2.9    769  3.9
 14500    1.5  34.7   315    9    5   8.9   4.9   23.9  75.1    -3.4    723  3.7
 14000    2.8  37.0   305    8    4   9.2   5.0   23.8  74.9    -3.6    669  3.4
 13500    4.1  39.4   295    8    4   9.1   5.0   23.7  74.7    -3.8    616  3.1
 13000    5.4  41.7   285    7    4   9.0   4.9   23.6  74.5    -4.0    562  2.9
 12500    6.7  44.1   270    7    4   8.7   4.8   23.5  74.3    -4.1    507  2.6
 12000    8.0  46.4   255    8    4   9.1   5.0   23.4  74.0    -4.3    453  2.3
 11750    8.7  47.7   250    8    4   8.8   4.8   23.3  73.9    -4.4    426  2.2
 11500    9.4  48.9   245    8    4   9.7   5.3   23.2  73.8    -4.4    398  2.0
 11250   10.1  50.2   240    9    5   9.3   5.1   23.3  73.9    -4.4    368  1.9
 11000   10.7  51.3   240    9    5   7.8   4.3   23.1  73.6    -4.5    342  1.7
 10750   11.3  52.3   235   10    5   7.7   4.2   23.0  73.4    -4.7    317  1.6
 10500   11.9  53.4   235   10    5   8.1   4.4   22.8  73.1    -4.8    292  1.5
 10250   12.5  54.5   230   11    5   8.9   4.9   22.7  72.9    -4.9    266  1.4
 10000   13.2  55.8   225   11    6   8.3   4.5   22.7  72.8    -5.0    239  1.2
  9750   13.8  56.8   225   11    6   7.5   4.1   22.5  72.5    -5.2    214  1.1
  9500   14.3  57.7   220   12    6   7.7   4.2   22.4  72.2    -5.4    190  1.0
  9250   14.9  58.8   220   12    6   7.6   4.2   22.2  71.9    -5.6    166  0.8
  9000   15.5  59.9   215   12    6   7.4   4.0   22.0  71.6    -5.7    141  0.7
  8750   16.0  60.8   215   12    6   8.3   4.5   21.9  71.3    -5.9    117  0.6
  8500   16.6  61.9   215   12    6   4.5   2.5   21.7  71.0    -6.1     93  0.5
  8250   16.7  62.1   220   11    6   0.4   0.2   21.0  69.9    -6.8     83  0.4
  8000   16.7  62.1   225   10    5   1.9   1.0   20.4  68.7    -7.4     73  0.4
  7750   16.8  62.2   230    9    5  -0.7  -0.4   19.8  67.6    -8.1     64  0.3
  7500   16.3  61.3   230   10    5 -11.9  -6.5   18.7  65.7    -9.2     70  0.4
  7250   15.0  59.0   235    8    4 -18.9 -10.4   17.1  62.7   -10.9    102  0.5
  7000   13.8  56.8   240    6    3 -13.7  -7.5   15.5  59.8   -12.6    133  0.7
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           08/18/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       08/18/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +17.6  LI... +271.7             | K index... +25.0  LI... +271.3
CAPE... +166.2  CIN... -52.5               | CAPE... +270.1  CIN... -3.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.0 -76.0  270  20 10   2.5   1.4 | -60.1 -76.2  260  22 12   2.6   1.4
 45000 -57.0 -70.6  265  27 14   0.7   0.4 | -56.9 -70.4  260  30 16   0.9   0.5
 40000 -55.1 -67.2  270  22 11   6.1   3.3 | -54.7 -66.5  265  29 15   6.2   3.4
 38000 -51.3 -60.3  275  19 10   6.3   3.4 | -50.9 -59.6  265  24 13   6.4   3.5
 36000 -47.5 -53.5  280  16  8   6.1   3.3 | -47.1 -52.8  265  19 10   6.2   3.4
 34000 -42.8 -45.0  270  14  7   8.3   4.6 | -42.2 -44.0  265  17  9   8.5   4.7
 32000 -37.8 -36.0  260  13  6   8.2   4.5 | -37.1 -34.8  265  15  8   8.4   4.6
 30000 -32.6 -26.7  255  12  6   8.8   4.8 | -32.2 -26.0  260  13  7   8.1   4.4
 29000 -30.0 -22.0  255  11  6   8.8   4.8 | -29.8 -21.6  250  13  7   8.1   4.5
 28000 -27.4 -17.3  255  11  5   8.5   4.7 | -26.7 -16.1  245  13  7   8.0   4.4
 27000 -24.4 -11.9  255   9  5   7.9   4.3 | -24.4 -11.9  245  12  6   8.0   4.4
 26000 -22.1  -7.8  255   8  4   7.9   4.4 | -22.0  -7.6  250  11  6   8.0   4.4
 25000 -19.7  -3.5  255   7  4   7.5   4.1 | -19.6  -3.3  250  10  5   7.6   4.2
 24000 -17.8  -0.0  270   6  3   6.1   3.3 | -17.7   0.1  255   8  4   6.4   3.5
 23000 -16.0   3.2  285   5  3   6.1   3.4 | -15.7   3.7  260   6  3   6.4   3.5
 22000 -14.2   6.4  305   5  3   6.3   3.4 | -13.8   7.2  275   5  2   6.4   3.5
 21000 -12.2  10.0  320   6  3   6.5   3.6 | -12.0  10.4  295   3  2   6.3   3.5
 20000 -10.3  13.5  335   6  3   6.5   3.6 | -10.1  13.8  335   3  2   6.3   3.5
 19500  -9.3  15.3  340   7  4   6.5   3.5 |  -9.1  15.6  350   4  2   6.3   3.4
 19000  -8.3  17.1  340   7  4   7.4   4.1 |  -8.2  17.2  360   4  2   7.1   3.9
 18500  -7.2  19.0  345   7  4   7.3   4.0 |  -7.2  19.0  005   4  2   7.1   3.9
 18000  -6.2  20.8  345   8  4   7.3   4.0 |  -6.2  20.8  010   4  2   7.0   3.8
 17500  -5.1  22.8  350   8  4   7.3   4.0 |  -5.2  22.6  010   5  3   6.9   3.8
 17000  -4.0  24.8  350   8  4   7.3   4.0 |  -4.2  24.4  010   6  3   6.9   3.8
 16500  -3.0  26.6  355   9  5   7.5   4.1 |  -3.2  26.2  010   6  3   7.2   3.9
 16000  -1.9  28.6  355   9  5   7.5   4.1 |  -2.2  28.0  010   6  3   7.2   3.9
 15500  -0.8  30.6  355  10  5   7.8   4.3 |  -1.1  30.0  010   7  3   7.4   4.1
 15000   0.4  32.7  355  10  5   7.9   4.4 |  -0.1  31.8  005   7  4   7.6   4.2
 14500   1.6  34.9  350  10  5   8.1   4.5 |   1.0  33.8  360   8  4   8.0   4.4
 14000   3.4  38.1  340  10  5   8.5   4.7 |   2.9  37.2  350   8  4   9.0   4.9
 13500   4.6  40.3  335   9  5   8.8   4.8 |   4.2  39.6  345   9  4   9.3   5.1
 13000   5.8  42.4  330   9  4   9.0   4.9 |   5.5  41.9  345   8  4   9.5   5.2
 12500   7.1  44.8  325   8  4   9.0   5.0 |   6.9  44.4  340   8  4   9.4   5.2
 12000   8.4  47.1  325   7  4   9.3   5.1 |   8.3  46.9  340   8  4   9.9   5.4
 11750   9.1  48.4  325   7  3   9.1   5.0 |   9.1  48.4  340   8  4   9.8   5.4
 11500   9.7  49.5  325   7  3   9.9   5.4 |   9.8  49.6  340   8  4  10.1   5.5
 11250  10.4  50.7  325   6  3   9.3   5.1 |  10.5  50.9  340   7  4   9.9   5.4
 11000  11.0  51.8  325   6  3   8.1   4.4 |  11.2  52.2  340   7  4   9.4   5.2
 10750  11.6  52.9  325   6  3   8.2   4.5 |  11.9  53.4  340   7  4   9.4   5.2
 10500  12.2  54.0  325   6  3   8.4   4.6 |  12.6  54.7  340   7  4   9.8   5.4
 10250  12.9  55.2  325   6  3   8.9   4.9 |  13.4  56.1  340   7  3  10.4   5.7
 10000  13.5  56.3  320   5  3   8.3   4.6 |  14.1  57.4  340   6  3   9.9   5.4
  9750  14.1  57.4  325   5  3   7.9   4.4 |  14.9  58.8  340   6  3   9.5   5.2
  9500  14.7  58.5  325   5  3   7.8   4.3 |  15.6  60.1  340   6  3   9.5   5.2
  9250  15.2  59.4  325   5  2   7.4   4.1 |  16.3  61.3  340   6  3   9.1   5.0
  9000  15.8  60.4  320   4  2   7.6   4.1 |  17.0  62.6  340   6  3   9.6   5.3
  8750  16.3  61.3  315   4  2   8.1   4.5 |  17.7  63.9  340   6  3  11.0   6.0
  8500  16.9  62.4  310   4  2   7.4   4.1 |  18.6  65.5  345   6  3  11.1   6.1
  8250  17.4  63.3  310   3  2   6.9   3.8 |  19.4  66.9  345   5  3  10.6   5.8
  8000  17.9  64.2  310   3  2   6.3   3.4 |  20.2  68.4  345   5  3  10.7   5.9
  7750  18.3  64.9  310   3  2   9.3   5.1 |  21.0  69.8  345   5  3  10.8   5.9
  7500  19.1  66.4  290   3  2   9.4   5.2 |  21.7  71.1  345   5  2  12.0   6.6
  7250  19.5  67.1  290   3  1   5.5   3.0 |  22.7  72.9  345   5  2  13.0   7.1
  7000  19.9  67.8  295   2  1   8.8   4.8 |  23.6  74.5  345   4  2  12.3   6.7
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           08/18/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       08/18/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +28.2  LI... +271.6             | K index... +30.7  LI... +271.8
CAPE... +94.6  CIN... -6.4                 | CAPE... +83.9  CIN... -0.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.2 -76.4  265  25 13   2.8   1.5 | -60.0 -76.0  265  22 11   2.9   1.6
 45000 -57.0 -70.6  260  33 17   0.3   0.2 | -56.9 -70.4  265  30 15  -0.3  -0.2
 40000 -55.4 -67.7  250  37 19   7.2   4.0 | -56.1 -69.0  255  38 20   8.1   4.4
 38000 -51.0 -59.8  250  33 17   7.4   4.1 | -51.1 -60.0  250  34 18   8.3   4.6
 36000 -46.5 -51.7  245  29 15   7.3   4.0 | -46.1 -51.0  250  31 16   8.2   4.5
 34000 -41.5 -42.7  250  24 12   8.6   4.7 | -40.9 -41.6  250  25 13   8.8   4.9
 32000 -36.3 -33.3  260  19 10   8.5   4.6 | -35.6 -32.1  250  19 10   8.7   4.8
 30000 -31.3 -24.3  265  17  9   8.3   4.6 | -30.7 -23.3  250  15  8   8.1   4.4
 29000 -28.8 -19.8  265  16  8   8.4   4.6 | -28.3 -18.9  250  13  7   8.1   4.4
 28000 -25.8 -14.4  270  15  8   7.5   4.1 | -25.4 -13.7  250  11  6   7.3   4.0
 27000 -23.6 -10.5  275  14  7   7.4   4.0 | -23.2  -9.8  250   9  5   7.2   3.9
 26000 -21.4  -6.5  275  14  7   7.4   4.1 | -21.1  -6.0  245   7  4   7.2   4.0
 25000 -19.2  -2.6  280  13  7   7.2   4.0 | -19.0  -2.2  235   6  3   7.2   3.9
 24000 -17.3   0.9  275  11  6   6.6   3.6 | -17.0   1.4  215   4  2   6.8   3.7
 23000 -15.3   4.5  275  10  5   6.7   3.7 | -15.0   5.0  165   3  2   6.8   3.7
 22000 -13.4   7.9  270   8  4   6.5   3.6 | -13.0   8.6  130   5  2   6.7   3.7
 21000 -11.6  11.1  265   5  3   6.1   3.4 | -11.2  11.8  105   6  3   6.2   3.4
 20000  -9.8  14.4  265   3  1   6.1   3.4 |  -9.4  15.1  085   8  4   6.3   3.4
 19500  -8.9  16.0  255   1  1   6.1   3.3 |  -8.5  16.7  080   9  4   6.3   3.5
 19000  -8.0  17.6  000   0  0   6.6   3.6 |  -7.6  18.3  075   9  5   6.2   3.4
 18500  -7.0  19.4  060   1  1   6.6   3.6 |  -6.7  19.9  070  10  5   6.2   3.4
 18000  -6.0  21.2  060   2  1   6.5   3.6 |  -5.8  21.6  065  10  5   6.3   3.5
 17500  -5.1  22.8  050   3  2   6.4   3.5 |  -4.9  23.2  060  10  5   6.5   3.6
 17000  -4.2  24.4  040   4  2   6.4   3.5 |  -4.0  24.8  060  10  5   6.5   3.6
 16500  -3.2  26.2  035   6  3   7.2   3.9 |  -3.0  26.6  055  10  5   6.4   3.5
 16000  -2.2  28.0  030   7  3   7.2   3.9 |  -2.1  28.2  055  10  5   6.4   3.5
 15500  -1.2  29.8  025   8  4   8.1   4.4 |  -1.2  29.8  050  10  5   6.4   3.5
 15000   0.1  32.2  025   8  4   8.6   4.7 |  -0.3  31.5  050  10  5   6.4   3.5
 14500   1.3  34.3  020   8  4   8.9   4.9 |   0.6  33.1  045  10  5   7.0   3.8
 14000   3.4  38.1  020   8  4   9.6   5.3 |   2.6  36.7  045  10  5   9.7   5.3
 13500   4.8  40.6  020   8  4   9.9   5.5 |   4.1  39.4  045  10  5   9.9   5.4
 13000   6.3  43.3  020   7  4  10.2   5.6 |   5.6  42.1  040   9  5  10.0   5.5
 12500   7.8  46.0  020   7  4   8.9   4.9 |   7.1  44.8  040   9  5   9.0   5.0
 12000   9.2  48.6  015   7  4  10.0   5.5 |   8.4  47.1  040   9  5  10.0   5.5
 11750   9.9  49.8  015   7  4   9.9   5.5 |   9.2  48.6  035   9  5   9.8   5.4
 11500  10.7  51.3  015   7  4   9.7   5.3 |   9.9  49.8  035   9  5   9.9   5.5
 11250  11.4  52.5  015   7  3   9.6   5.3 |  10.7  51.3  035   9  5   9.9   5.5
 11000  12.1  53.8  015   6  3   9.8   5.4 |  11.4  52.5  035   9  5   9.8   5.4
 10750  12.8  55.0  015   6  3   9.9   5.4 |  12.1  53.8  035   9  5   9.9   5.4
 10500  13.6  56.5  015   6  3   9.5   5.2 |  12.9  55.2  035   9  5   9.6   5.3
 10250  14.2  57.6  015   6  3   8.9   4.9 |  13.5  56.3  035   9  5   8.9   4.9
 10000  14.9  58.8  015   6  3   9.9   5.5 |  14.2  57.6  035   9  4  10.0   5.5
  9750  15.7  60.3  015   6  3  11.0   6.0 |  15.0  59.0  030   9  4  11.2   6.1
  9500  16.5  61.7  015   6  3  10.2   5.6 |  15.8  60.4  030   9  4  10.3   5.7
  9250  17.2  63.0  015   6  3   9.2   5.1 |  16.6  61.9  030   9  4   8.9   4.9
  9000  17.9  64.2  015   5  3   9.5   5.2 |  17.2  63.0  030   8  4   9.1   5.0
  8750  18.7  65.7  010   5  3  10.9   6.0 |  18.0  64.4  030   8  4  11.1   6.1
  8500  19.5  67.1  010   5  3  10.8   5.9 |  18.8  65.8  030   8  4  11.0   6.0
  8250  20.3  68.5  010   5  3  10.0   5.5 |  19.6  67.3  030   8  4   9.8   5.4
  8000  21.0  69.8  010   5  2   9.9   5.4 |  20.3  68.5  030   8  4   9.5   5.2
  7750  21.8  71.2  010   5  2  10.5   5.8 |  21.0  69.8  030   7  4  10.7   5.9
  7500  22.5  72.5  010   5  2  11.2   6.2 |  21.8  71.2  025   7  4   8.4   4.6
  7250  23.3  73.9  010   4  2  11.0   6.1 |  22.2  72.0  025   7  3   4.8   2.6
  7000  24.1  75.4  010   4  2  11.3   6.2 |  22.5  72.5  025   6  3   7.4   4.1
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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