Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 151227
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0527 MST Wednesday, November 15, 2017

This forecast is for Wednesday, November 15, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 50.8 F/10.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 300 ft/min (1.5 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11102 ft MSL (3483 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 50.0 F/10.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1400 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9622 ft MSL (2004 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 11/16..... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks... Some cirrus will increase later in the day

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:42:43 / 16:45:09 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 2 min 26 sec (602 min 26 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:43:56 MST... 32.23 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/15/2017 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 7686 ft MSL (67 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 10787 ft MSL (3168 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 19345 ft MSL (11726 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15883 ft MSL (8265 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.6
K index......................... -26.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -64.2 -83.6   280   48   25   2.5   1.4      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -60.5 -76.9   280   57   29   1.6   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -58.0 -72.4   285   56   29   1.6   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -56.4 -69.5   290   51   26   2.7   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -54.8 -66.6   290   45   23   2.7   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -51.7 -61.1   290   42   21   8.9   4.9      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -46.4 -51.5   290   41   21   8.9   4.9      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -41.3 -42.3   290   39   20   8.0   4.4   27.4  81.3    13.4      M    M
 29000  -38.9 -38.0   290   37   19   8.0   4.4   26.7  80.0    13.0      M    M
 28000  -36.5 -33.7   290   36   18   8.1   4.4   26.1  79.0    12.7      M    M
 27000  -34.0 -29.2   290   35   18   8.2   4.5   25.5  78.0    12.4      M    M
 26000  -31.6 -24.9   290   34   18   8.2   4.5   24.9  76.8    12.0      M    M
 25000  -29.1 -20.4   290   34   18   8.2   4.5   24.3  75.8    11.7      M    M
 24000  -26.7 -16.1   295   34   17   8.1   4.4   23.9  74.9    11.5      M    M
 23000  -23.7 -10.7   295   31   16   8.0   4.4   23.0  73.4    10.9      M    M
 22000  -21.3  -6.3   295   30   15   8.0   4.4   22.4  72.4    10.5      M    M
 21000  -19.2  -2.6   290   27   14   6.1   3.3   21.5  70.7     9.9      M    M
 20000  -17.3   0.9   285   23   12   6.1   3.3   20.2  68.3     8.9      M    M
 19500  -16.4   2.5   285   21   11   6.1   3.3   19.6  67.2     8.4      M    M
 19000  -15.5   4.1   285   20   10   6.1   3.4   19.0  66.2     7.9      M    M
 18500  -14.5   5.9   280   18    9   6.2   3.4   18.4  65.1     7.4      M    M
 18000  -13.6   7.5   280   17    9   6.1   3.4   17.8  64.0     7.0      M    M
 17500  -12.6   9.3   280   16    8   7.5   4.1   17.3  63.1     6.5      M    M
 17000  -11.5  11.3   280   15    8   7.6   4.2   16.9  62.5     6.2      M    M
 16500  -10.3  13.5   280   14    7   7.8   4.3   16.6  61.8     6.0      M    M
 16000   -9.1  15.6   280   14    7   8.1   4.5   16.3  61.3     5.7      M    M
 15500   -7.9  17.8   280   13    7   8.1   4.5   16.0  60.9     5.5      M    M
 15000   -6.8  19.8   285   12    6   7.0   3.8   15.7  60.2     5.2      M    M
 14500   -5.7  21.7   285   12    6   7.3   4.0   15.2  59.4     4.8      M    M
 14000   -4.8  23.4   285   11    6   4.5   2.5   14.6  58.3     4.3      M    M
 13500   -4.1  24.6   285   10    5   4.7   2.6   13.8  56.8     3.5      M    M
 13000   -3.5  25.7   280   10    5   4.1   2.3   13.0  55.3     2.7      M    M
 12500   -3.0  26.6   270   10    5   2.7   1.5   12.0  53.6     1.7      M    M
 12000   -2.5  27.5   265   11    5   6.7   3.7   11.0  51.9     0.8      M    M
 11750   -2.0  28.4   260   10    5   8.1   4.4   10.9  51.6     0.6      M    M
 11500   -1.4  29.5   260   10    5   7.8   4.3   10.7  51.3     0.4      M    M
 11250   -0.9  30.4   255   10    5   7.3   4.0   10.6  51.0     0.2      M    M
 11000   -0.4  31.3   255   10    5   5.5   3.0   10.3  50.6    -0.0    297  1.5
 10750   -0.0  32.0   250    9    5   4.8   2.6    9.9  49.9    -0.4    279  1.4
 10500    0.3  32.5   250    9    5   5.2   2.9    9.6  49.2    -0.8    261  1.3
 10250    0.7  33.3   245    9    5   4.1   2.3    9.2  48.6    -1.1    242  1.2
 10000    0.9  33.6   245    8    4   1.4   0.8    8.7  47.6    -1.7    229  1.2
  9750    0.9  33.6   245    7    4   0.3   0.2    8.0  46.3    -2.4    221  1.1
  9500    0.9  33.6   250    6    3   1.0   0.5    7.2  45.0    -3.1    212  1.1
  9250    1.0  33.8   250    5    3  -0.7  -0.4    6.6  43.8    -3.8    204  1.0
  9000    0.9  33.6   265    4    2   0.5   0.3    5.7  42.3    -4.6    199  1.0
  8750    1.1  34.0   270    3    2   3.1   1.7    5.2  41.3    -5.2    186  0.9
  8500    1.2  34.2   285    2    1   2.3   1.3    4.6  40.3    -5.8    174  0.9
  8250    1.4  34.5   300    2    1   1.4   0.7    4.1  39.3    -6.4    162  0.8
  8000    1.3  34.3   290    1    1  -5.4  -3.0    3.2  37.8    -7.2    157  0.8
  7750    0.5  32.9   310    1    1 -14.2  -7.8    1.7  35.1    -8.7    172  0.9
  7500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  7250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  7000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/15/2017 at 0800 MST          |       11/15/2017 at 1100 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +3.9        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +4.0
CINH...     0.0    K Index... -30.9        | CINH...     0.0    K Index... -28.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.0 -85.0  280  50 26   2.2   1.2 | -64.9 -84.8  280  48 25   1.6   0.9
 45000 -61.8 -79.2  285  58 30   1.0   0.6 | -62.5 -80.5  285  56 29   1.1   0.6
 40000 -60.1 -76.2  285  52 27   1.1   0.6 | -60.7 -77.3  285  47 24   1.2   0.7
 38000 -58.0 -72.4  290  48 25   4.7   2.6 | -58.3 -72.9  285  43 22   5.6   3.1
 36000 -54.9 -66.8  285  42 21   4.7   2.6 | -54.5 -66.1  280  38 20   5.6   3.1
 34000 -51.1 -60.0  285  38 19   8.5   4.7 | -50.5 -58.9  280  35 18   8.1   4.4
 32000 -46.0 -50.8  285  36 18   8.5   4.7 | -45.6 -50.1  275  32 16   8.1   4.4
 30000 -40.9 -41.6  285  34 17   8.6   4.7 | -40.5 -40.9  275  30 15   9.0   4.9
 29000 -38.3 -36.9  280  33 17   8.6   4.7 | -37.8 -36.0  280  29 15   9.0   4.9
 28000 -35.7 -32.3  280  32 17   8.6   4.7 | -35.2 -31.4  280  29 15   9.0   4.9
 27000 -33.3 -27.9  275  31 16   7.4   4.1 | -32.7 -26.9  280  28 14   7.0   3.8
 26000 -31.0 -23.8  275  30 16   7.5   4.1 | -30.6 -23.1  280  27 14   7.1   3.9
 25000 -28.8 -19.8  280  29 15   7.5   4.1 | -28.4 -19.1  285  26 13   7.1   3.9
 24000 -26.5 -15.7  280  28 15   7.8   4.3 | -26.3 -15.3  285  25 13   7.3   4.0
 23000 -24.2 -11.6  280  27 14   7.9   4.3 | -24.2 -11.6  280  24 13   7.3   4.0
 22000 -21.8  -7.2  285  26 13   7.9   4.3 | -22.0  -7.6  280  23 12   7.3   4.0
 21000 -19.0  -2.2  285  24 12   7.3   4.0 | -19.1  -2.4  280  22 11   8.4   4.6
 20000 -16.8   1.8  285  22 12   7.3   4.0 | -16.6   2.1  275  21 11   8.4   4.6
 19500 -15.7   3.7  285  22 11   7.3   4.0 | -15.3   4.5  275  20 10   8.4   4.6
 19000 -14.6   5.7  285  21 11   7.1   3.9 | -14.1   6.6  275  19 10   8.2   4.5
 18500 -13.5   7.7  285  20 10   6.7   3.7 | -12.8   9.0  275  18  9   8.0   4.4
 18000 -12.5   9.5  285  19 10   6.8   3.7 | -11.5  11.3  275  18  9   8.3   4.5
 17500 -11.5  11.3  285  18  9   6.6   3.6 | -10.4  13.3  275  17  9   6.8   3.7
 17000 -10.5  13.1  285  17  9   6.7   3.7 |  -9.3  15.3  275  16  8   6.8   3.7
 16500  -9.5  14.9  280  16  8   7.0   3.8 |  -8.3  17.1  275  16  8   6.5   3.6
 16000  -8.4  16.9  280  15  8   7.3   4.0 |  -7.4  18.7  275  15  8   6.1   3.4
 15500  -7.3  18.9  280  14  7   7.4   4.1 |  -6.4  20.5  270  14  7   6.1   3.3
 15000  -6.1  21.0  280  13  7   7.7   4.2 |  -5.5  22.1  270  13  7   6.0   3.3
 14500  -5.0  23.0  275  12  6   7.9   4.3 |  -4.6  23.7  270  12  6   6.0   3.3
 14000  -4.0  24.8  275  11  6   5.5   3.0 |  -3.7  25.3  270  12  6   6.4   3.5
 13500  -3.2  26.2  275  11  6   5.8   3.2 |  -2.7  27.1  270  11  6   6.4   3.5
 13000  -2.4  27.7  270  10  5   4.0   2.2 |  -1.8  28.8  265  11  6   6.6   3.6
 12500  -1.9  28.6  270  10  5   4.1   2.2 |  -0.9  30.4  265  11  6   5.8   3.2
 12000  -1.3  29.7  265  10  5   3.7   2.1 |  -0.0  32.0  260  11  6   5.2   2.9
 11750  -1.1  30.0  265  10  5   3.9   2.1 |   0.3  32.5  260  11  6   4.8   2.6
 11500  -0.8  30.6  260   9  5   3.5   1.9 |   0.7  33.3  260  11  6   5.9   3.2
 11250  -0.7  30.7  260   9  5   2.2   1.2 |   1.1  34.0  255  11  6   6.1   3.4
 11000  -0.6  30.9  260   9  5   1.5   0.8 |   1.4  34.5  255  11  6   2.5   1.4
 10750  -0.5  31.1  255   9  4   1.5   0.8 |   1.5  34.7  250  11  6   0.8   0.4
 10500  -0.4  31.3  250   9  4   1.5   0.8 |   1.6  34.9  250  11  6   0.7   0.4
 10250  -0.3  31.5  245   8  4   1.6   0.9 |   1.6  34.9  245  11  5   3.0   1.6
 10000  -0.2  31.6  240   8  4  -0.3  -0.2 |   1.8  35.2  245  10  5  -0.1  -0.1
  9750  -0.3  31.5  235   8  4  -1.5  -0.8 |   1.5  34.7  240  10  5  -4.7  -2.6
  9500  -0.5  31.1  225   9  4  -1.5  -0.8 |   1.2  34.2  235  10  5  -3.4  -1.8
  9250  -0.6  30.9  220   9  4  -0.1  -0.0 |   0.8  33.4  230  10  5  -3.9  -2.2
  9000  -0.5  31.1  210   9  4   1.0   0.6 |   0.6  33.1  220  10  5  -0.5  -0.3
  8750  -0.5  31.1  205   9  5   0.2   0.1 |   0.7  33.3  210  10  5   2.4   1.3
  8500  -0.5  31.1  200   9  5   0.5   0.3 |   0.8  33.4  200  10  5   1.1   0.6
  8250  -0.4  31.3  195  10  5   0.7   0.4 |   1.0  33.8  190  10  5   6.1   3.3
  8000  -0.3  31.5  190   9  5   3.9   2.1 |   1.8  35.2  190   9  5  16.2   8.9
  7750   0.2  32.4  185   7  4   8.6   4.7 |   3.2  37.8  185   8  4  20.8  11.4
  7500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           11/15/2017 at 1400 MST          |       11/15/2017 at 1700 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +2.8        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +3.6
CINH...     0.0    K Index...  -3.8        | CINH...     0.0    K Index...  +1.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.1 -85.2  280  47 24   2.2   1.2 | -65.5 -85.9  280  49 25   2.4   1.3
 45000 -61.9 -79.4  280  53 27   0.9   0.5 | -62.0 -79.6  280  54 28   1.3   0.7
 40000 -60.3 -76.5  285  43 22   1.1   0.6 | -59.9 -75.8  285  41 21   1.4   0.8
 38000 -57.3 -71.1  280  39 20   5.9   3.2 | -57.0 -70.6  285  37 19   5.5   3.0
 36000 -53.7 -64.7  280  36 18   5.9   3.2 | -53.7 -64.7  280  34 17   5.5   3.0
 34000 -49.8 -57.6  275  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -49.6 -57.3  280  31 16   8.4   4.6
 32000 -45.2 -49.4  275  30 16   7.6   4.2 | -44.5 -48.1  275  29 15   8.4   4.6
 30000 -40.4 -40.7  275  28 14   8.6   4.7 | -39.8 -39.6  275  27 14   7.3   4.0
 29000 -37.8 -36.0  275  27 14   8.6   4.7 | -37.6 -35.7  270  25 13   7.3   4.0
 28000 -35.3 -31.5  280  26 14   8.6   4.7 | -35.4 -31.7  270  23 12   7.3   4.0
 27000 -32.8 -27.0  280  26 13   7.3   4.0 | -33.1 -27.6  270  22 11   8.6   4.7
 26000 -30.6 -23.1  280  25 13   7.4   4.1 | -30.6 -23.1  270  21 11   8.5   4.7
 25000 -28.4 -19.1  280  25 13   7.4   4.1 | -28.0 -18.4  270  21 11   8.6   4.7
 24000 -26.2 -15.2  280  24 12   7.3   4.0 | -25.5 -13.9  270  21 11   7.3   4.0
 23000 -24.1 -11.4  280  23 12   7.3   4.0 | -23.4 -10.1  270  21 11   7.1   3.9
 22000 -21.4  -6.5  280  22 11   7.3   4.0 | -20.7  -5.3  265  21 11   7.1   3.9
 21000 -19.0  -2.2  280  21 11   8.5   4.6 | -18.6  -1.5  265  21 11   7.4   4.1
 20000 -16.5   2.3  275  21 11   8.5   4.7 | -16.3   2.7  270  20 10   7.4   4.1
 19500 -15.2   4.6  275  21 11   8.5   4.7 | -15.2   4.6  270  20 10   7.4   4.1
 19000 -14.0   6.8  275  21 11   8.4   4.6 | -14.1   6.6  270  20 10   7.5   4.1
 18500 -12.7   9.1  275  20 11   8.0   4.4 | -13.0   8.6  270  19 10   7.8   4.3
 18000 -11.5  11.3  275  20 10   8.0   4.4 | -11.8  10.8  275  18  9   7.9   4.3
 17500 -10.3  13.5  275  20 10   8.3   4.6 | -10.7  12.7  275  17  9   7.9   4.3
 17000  -9.0  15.8  275  19 10   8.4   4.6 |  -9.5  14.9  275  17  9   7.9   4.3
 16500  -7.7  18.1  275  19 10   8.0   4.4 |  -8.3  17.1  280  17  9   7.5   4.1
 16000  -6.5  20.3  275  18  9   7.5   4.1 |  -7.2  19.0  280  16  8   7.0   3.8
 15500  -5.4  22.3  280  17  9   7.5   4.1 |  -6.1  21.0  285  16  8   7.1   3.9
 15000  -4.4  24.1  280  16  8   6.1   3.3 |  -5.1  22.8  285  16  8   5.6   3.1
 14500  -3.4  25.9  280  15  8   6.3   3.4 |  -4.3  24.3  285  15  8   5.8   3.2
 14000  -2.6  27.3  280  15  7   5.2   2.9 |  -3.5  25.7  285  15  8   4.5   2.5
 13500  -1.8  28.8  280  14  7   5.2   2.9 |  -2.8  27.0  285  14  7   4.5   2.5
 13000  -1.0  30.2  280  14  7   7.2   3.9 |  -2.1  28.2  280  14  7   7.2   4.0
 12500  -0.1  31.8  275  14  7   4.2   2.3 |  -1.1  30.0  275  14  7   5.3   2.9
 12000   0.6  33.1  275  13  7   5.7   3.1 |  -0.3  31.5  270  14  7   7.1   3.9
 11750   1.0  33.8  270  13  7   6.5   3.5 |   0.2  32.4  270  14  7   8.0   4.4
 11500   1.5  34.7  270  13  7   6.8   3.7 |   0.8  33.4  265  14  7   8.9   4.9
 11250   2.0  35.6  265  13  7   7.6   4.1 |   1.6  34.9  260  13  7  10.7   5.9
 11000   2.5  36.5  260  13  7   4.6   2.5 |   2.3  36.1  260  13  7   7.3   4.0
 10750   2.7  36.9  260  13  7   2.7   1.5 |   2.7  36.9  255  13  7   5.0   2.7
 10500   2.9  37.2  255  13  7   3.0   1.6 |   3.1  37.6  255  13  7   5.3   2.9
 10250   3.2  37.8  250  13  7   5.3   2.9 |   3.5  38.3  250  13  7   8.2   4.5
 10000   3.5  38.3  250  12  6  -0.0  -0.0 |   4.1  39.4  250  13  7   4.9   2.7
  9750   3.1  37.6  245  12  6  -5.4  -2.9 |   4.2  39.6  245  12  6   0.1   0.0
  9500   2.7  36.9  235  11  6  -5.7  -3.1 |   4.2  39.6  240  12  6   0.9   0.5
  9250   2.3  36.1  230  11  6   1.4   0.8 |   4.3  39.7  240  12  6   2.5   1.4
  9000   2.8  37.0  225  10  5   7.0   3.8 |   4.5  40.1  235  11  6   1.1   0.6
  8750   3.1  37.6  215   9  5   3.7   2.1 |   4.3  39.7  225  11  6  -2.3  -1.2
  8500   3.4  38.1  205   9  5   4.0   2.2 |   4.2  39.6  220  11  6  -0.7  -0.4
  8250   3.7  38.7  195   9  5   6.4   3.5 |   4.1  39.4  210  11  6  -3.7  -2.0
  8000   4.5  40.1  190   9  5  13.5   7.4 |   3.7  38.7  200  11  5  -5.5  -3.0
  7750   5.7  42.3  185   8  4  17.1   9.4 |   3.4  38.1  195   8  4  -0.4  -0.2
  7500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC).  It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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