Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 181218
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0518 MST Saturday, November 18, 2017

This forecast is for Saturday, November 18, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 28.8 F/-1.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 705 ft/min (3.6 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16413 ft MSL (8823 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 43.0 F/6.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 0845 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 15578 ft MSL (7987 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 11/19....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:46:02 / 16:43:02 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 57 min 1 sec (597 min 1 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:44:32 MST... 31.51 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/18/2017 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 13365 ft MSL (5775 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16195 ft MSL (8605 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +9.1
K index......................... -32.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -60.1 -76.2   265   36   18   2.7   1.5      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -55.9 -68.6   275   41   21   3.1   1.7      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -50.9 -59.6   275   43   22   3.4   1.8      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -49.5 -57.1   280   43   22   0.8   0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -49.0 -56.2   285   42   22   0.8   0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -48.5 -55.3   285   41   21   2.3   1.2      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -45.4 -49.7   290   36   18   4.7   2.6      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -42.6 -44.7   300   32   17   5.2   2.8   28.0  82.5    16.8      M    M
 29000  -41.0 -41.8   305   32   16   5.2   2.8   26.1  79.0    15.5      M    M
 28000  -39.5 -39.1   310   32   16   5.2   2.8   24.4  75.8    14.3      M    M
 27000  -37.9 -36.2   315   32   17   5.1   2.8   22.7  72.9    13.2      M    M
 26000  -36.2 -33.2   315   32   17   6.1   3.4   21.2  70.2    12.2      M    M
 25000  -34.3 -29.7   320   32   16   6.1   3.4   19.8  67.7    11.2      M    M
 24000  -32.5 -26.5   325   32   16   6.1   3.4   18.6  65.5    10.3      M    M
 23000  -30.6 -23.1   330   32   16   6.4   3.5   17.3  63.2     9.4      M    M
 22000  -28.7 -19.7   330   31   16   6.5   3.5   16.1  61.0     8.5      M    M
 21000  -26.8 -16.2   335   31   16   6.4   3.5   15.0  59.1     7.6      M    M
 20000  -24.8 -12.6   335   32   16   6.7   3.7   13.9  57.1     6.8      M    M
 19500  -23.8 -10.8   340   32   17   6.7   3.7   13.4  56.1     6.3      M    M
 19000  -22.3  -8.1   340   33   17   6.7   3.7   12.6  54.7     5.7      M    M
 18500  -21.2  -6.2   340   34   17   5.8   3.2   12.2  53.9     5.4      M    M
 18000  -20.7  -5.3   340   31   16   2.2   1.2   11.1  52.0     4.4      M    M
 17500  -20.4  -4.7   340   29   15   2.8   1.5    9.8  49.7     3.3      M    M
 17000  -20.3  -4.5   335   26   13  -2.7  -1.5    8.3  46.9     2.0      M    M
 16500  -20.8  -5.4   335   23   12  -2.9  -1.6    6.2  43.1     0.0      M    M
 16000  -21.2  -6.2   330   20   11  -1.6  -0.9    4.1  39.5    -1.8    703  3.6
 15500  -21.3  -6.3   330   19   10  -0.5  -0.3    2.4  36.4    -3.4    692  3.5
 15000  -21.4  -6.5   330   18    9   1.8   1.0    0.8  33.4    -5.0    680  3.5
 14500  -20.6  -5.1   330   18    9   6.6   3.6    0.1  32.1    -5.7    641  3.3
 14000  -19.7  -3.5   335   18    9   6.9   3.8   -0.4  31.2    -6.2    598  3.0
 13500  -18.5  -1.3   335   18    9   8.5   4.7   -0.7  30.7    -6.6    548  2.8
 13000  -17.2   1.0   335   19   10   8.4   4.6   -0.9  30.3    -6.8    496  2.5
 12500  -16.0   3.2   335   19   10   8.3   4.6   -1.2  29.9    -7.1    444  2.3
 12000  -14.8   5.4   335   20   10   8.4   4.6   -1.4  29.5    -7.3    392  2.0
 11750  -14.1   6.6   335   20   10   8.3   4.5   -1.5  29.3    -7.4    366  1.9
 11500  -13.5   7.7   335   20   10   8.1   4.5   -1.6  29.1    -7.6    340  1.7
 11250  -12.9   8.8   335   20   11   8.9   4.9   -1.7  28.9    -7.7    314  1.6
 11000  -12.3   9.9   335   21   11   8.1   4.5   -1.8  28.8    -7.8    287  1.5
 10750  -11.7  10.9   330   20   11   6.5   3.6   -2.0  28.4    -8.0    264  1.3
 10500  -11.3  11.7   330   20   10   5.4   3.0   -2.3  27.9    -8.3    243  1.2
 10250  -10.8  12.6   330   19   10   8.6   4.7   -2.6  27.4    -8.6    222  1.1
 10000  -10.1  13.8   330   18    9   9.6   5.3   -2.5  27.5    -8.6    192  1.0
  9750   -9.5  14.9   330   17    9   6.8   3.8   -2.7  27.2    -8.8    168  0.9
  9500   -9.0  15.8   330   16    8   7.8   4.3   -2.9  26.8    -9.0    144  0.7
  9250   -8.4  16.9   335   15    8   5.7   3.1   -3.1  26.5    -9.3    121  0.6
  9000   -8.1  17.4   335   14    7   6.4   3.5   -3.4  25.9    -9.6    102  0.5
  8750   -7.5  18.5   335   14    7   8.7   4.8   -3.5  25.7    -9.8     77  0.4
  8500   -6.8  19.8   335   13    7   8.2   4.5   -3.6  25.4    -9.9     51  0.3
  8250   -6.2  20.8   340   12    6   8.0   4.4   -3.7  25.3   -10.1     25  0.1
  8000   -5.7  21.7   340   11    6   5.9   3.2   -3.9  24.9   -10.3      2  0.0
  7750   -5.4  22.3   340    8    4   3.6   2.0   -4.3  24.2   -10.7      M    M
  7500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  7250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  7000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           11/18/2017 at 0800 MST          |       11/18/2017 at 1100 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +5.6        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +3.8
CINH...     0.0    K Index... -37.5        | CINH...     0.0    K Index... -27.4
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.8 -77.4  280  36 18   3.1   1.7 | -60.5 -76.9  285  35 18   3.5   1.9
 45000 -56.1 -69.0  280  39 20   3.1   1.7 | -55.0 -67.0  280  37 19   2.3   1.3
 40000 -51.7 -61.1  280  42 22   2.8   1.5 | -52.6 -62.7  280  36 18   1.6   0.9
 38000 -51.3 -60.3  280  41 21  -1.6  -0.9 | -52.2 -62.0  285  35 18  -0.6  -0.3
 36000 -52.3 -62.1  285  39 20  -1.6  -0.9 | -52.5 -62.5  285  33 17  -0.6  -0.3
 34000 -52.9 -63.2  290  36 19   4.6   2.5 | -52.5 -62.5  290  31 16   4.6   2.5
 32000 -49.5 -57.1  295  35 18   5.6   3.1 | -50.0 -58.0  295  31 16   4.1   2.3
 30000 -46.0 -50.8  300  34 18   7.6   4.2 | -47.1 -52.8  295  30 15   8.2   4.5
 29000 -43.7 -46.7  305  34 17   7.6   4.2 | -44.8 -48.6  295  29 15   7.9   4.4
 28000 -41.4 -42.5  310  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -42.4 -44.3  295  29 15   7.9   4.4
 27000 -39.2 -38.6  310  33 17   7.7   4.2 | -40.0 -40.0  300  29 15   7.9   4.3
 26000 -37.0 -34.6  315  32 17   7.1   3.9 | -37.7 -35.9  300  27 14   7.9   4.3
 25000 -34.8 -30.6  320  32 16   7.1   3.9 | -35.3 -31.5  300  26 13   7.9   4.3
 24000 -32.1 -25.8  320  31 16   7.1   3.9 | -32.9 -27.2  305  25 13   7.9   4.4
 23000 -30.0 -22.0  325  30 15   7.1   3.9 | -30.7 -23.3  305  24 12   7.4   4.0
 22000 -27.9 -18.2  325  29 15   7.1   3.9 | -28.5 -19.3  310  23 12   7.4   4.0
 21000 -25.7 -14.3  330  28 15   7.1   3.9 | -26.3 -15.3  310  22 11   7.4   4.0
 20000 -23.6 -10.5  330  26 13   7.0   3.9 | -23.5 -10.3  310  21 11   7.4   4.1
 19500 -22.5  -8.5  330  25 13   7.0   3.9 | -22.4  -8.3  310  20 10   7.4   4.1
 19000 -21.5  -6.7  335  24 12   7.0   3.9 | -21.3  -6.3  310  20 10   7.4   4.1
 18500 -20.4  -4.7  335  23 12   7.1   3.9 | -20.2  -4.4  310  19 10   7.6   4.1
 18000 -19.4  -2.9  335  23 12   7.1   3.9 | -19.1  -2.4  310  19 10   7.6   4.2
 17500 -18.3  -0.9  335  23 12   7.2   3.9 | -17.9  -0.2  310  18  9   7.5   4.1
 17000 -17.2   1.0  340  23 12   6.9   3.8 | -16.8   1.8  315  18  9   7.5   4.1
 16500 -16.2   2.8  340  22 12   7.0   3.9 | -15.7   3.7  315  17  9   7.5   4.1
 16000 -15.2   4.6  340  22 11   5.9   3.2 | -14.6   5.7  320  17  9   6.9   3.8
 15500 -14.3   6.3  340  22 11   5.7   3.1 | -13.6   7.5  320  16  8   7.0   3.8
 15000 -13.5   7.7  340  22 11   4.7   2.6 | -12.5   9.5  325  16  8   6.5   3.6
 14500 -12.9   8.8  340  21 11   3.9   2.2 | -11.6  11.1  325  15  8   6.4   3.5
 14000 -12.3   9.9  340  21 11   3.0   1.7 | -10.6  12.9  325  15  7   5.5   3.0
 13500 -12.1  10.2  340  19 10   1.5   0.8 |  -9.9  14.2  325  14  7   5.0   2.7
 13000 -11.8  10.8  335  18  9   1.2   0.6 |  -9.2  15.4  325  13  7   4.5   2.5
 12500 -11.8  10.8  330  17  9   0.9   0.5 |  -8.6  16.5  320  12  6   3.2   1.8
 12000 -11.5  11.3  330  16  8   2.1   1.1 |  -8.2  17.2  320  11  6   1.4   0.7
 11750 -11.4  11.5  330  16  8   1.7   1.0 |  -8.2  17.2  315  10  5  -0.4  -0.2
 11500 -11.3  11.7  330  16  8   1.7   0.9 |  -8.2  17.2  310  10  5   0.1   0.0
 11250 -11.1  12.0  335  16  8   2.3   1.2 |  -8.2  17.2  310   9  5  -1.4  -0.8
 11000 -10.9  12.4  335  15  8   4.0   2.2 |  -8.3  17.1  310   9  5   1.0   0.6
 10750 -10.6  12.9  335  15  8   4.9   2.7 |  -8.1  17.4  305   8  4   4.0   2.2
 10500 -10.2  13.6  330  15  7   5.5   3.0 |  -7.8  18.0  305   7  4   2.6   1.4
 10250  -9.9  14.2  330  14  7   3.4   1.9 |  -7.6  18.3  305   7  3   5.5   3.0
 10000  -9.7  14.5  325  14  7   4.1   2.2 |  -7.0  19.4  305   6  3   9.0   4.9
  9750  -9.3  15.3  325  13  7   6.6   3.6 |  -6.4  20.5  300   5  3   8.7   4.8
  9500  -8.8  16.2  325  12  6   5.9   3.2 |  -5.8  21.6  300   4  2   9.3   5.1
  9250  -8.4  16.9  325  12  6   6.3   3.5 |  -5.1  22.8  295   3  2   7.5   4.1
  9000  -7.9  17.8  325  11  6   7.8   4.3 |  -4.6  23.7  290   3  2   8.7   4.8
  8750  -7.2  19.0  325  11  5   8.6   4.7 |  -3.8  25.2  290   3  2  11.3   6.2
  8500  -6.6  20.1  330  10  5   8.8   4.8 |  -3.0  26.6  290   3  1  10.7   5.9
  8250  -6.0  21.2  330   9  5   7.3   4.0 |  -2.2  28.0  290   3  1  10.8   5.9
  8000  -5.5  22.1  325   8  4   8.0   4.4 |  -1.3  29.7  290   3  1  14.8   8.1
  7750  -4.7  23.5  325   6  3  14.0   7.7 |   0.1  32.2  295   2  1  22.0  12.1
  7500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           11/18/2017 at 1400 MST          |       11/18/2017 at 1700 MST
                                           |
CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +3.2        | CAPE...     0.0    LI...       +3.4
CINH...     0.0    K Index... -13.3        | CINH...     0.0    K Index...  -8.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -60.6 -77.1  285  32 17   3.8   2.1 | -61.1 -78.0  290  32 17   3.4   1.9
 45000 -54.7 -66.5  285  36 19   2.0   1.1 | -56.0 -68.8  290  38 20   3.0   1.7
 40000 -53.4 -64.1  285  34 17   0.9   0.5 | -56.3 -69.3  295  35 18  -0.3  -0.2
 38000 -53.1 -63.6  290  32 17  -0.2  -0.1 | -55.7 -68.3  300  35 18   2.3   1.3
 36000 -53.2 -63.8  295  31 16  -0.2  -0.1 | -54.3 -65.7  310  36 19   2.3   1.3
 34000 -53.2 -63.8  300  30 16   3.5   1.9 | -52.6 -62.7  315  38 20   6.2   3.4
 32000 -49.9 -57.8  310  31 16   5.0   2.7 | -49.1 -56.4  315  37 19   5.8   3.2
 30000 -46.6 -51.9  315  31 16   7.6   4.2 | -45.5 -49.9  315  37 19   7.1   3.9
 29000 -44.4 -47.9  315  30 16   7.5   4.1 | -43.4 -46.1  315  36 18   7.0   3.9
 28000 -42.1 -43.8  315  30 15   7.5   4.1 | -41.3 -42.3  315  35 18   7.0   3.9
 27000 -39.9 -39.8  315  30 15   7.4   4.1 | -39.2 -38.6  315  34 17   7.1   3.9
 26000 -37.7 -35.9  310  29 15   7.2   4.0 | -36.9 -34.4  315  33 17   7.6   4.2
 25000 -35.6 -32.1  310  28 14   7.2   4.0 | -34.0 -29.2  320  32 16   7.6   4.2
 24000 -33.4 -28.1  310  27 14   7.2   4.0 | -31.7 -25.1  320  31 16   7.6   4.2
 23000 -31.1 -24.0  310  26 13   7.8   4.3 | -29.4 -20.9  320  30 15   7.6   4.2
 22000 -28.8 -19.8  310  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -27.1 -16.8  320  29 15   7.6   4.2
 21000 -26.5 -15.7  310  24 12   8.0   4.4 | -25.0 -13.0  320  27 14   6.1   3.4
 20000 -23.4 -10.1  310  23 12   8.1   4.4 | -23.1  -9.6  315  26 13   6.3   3.5
 19500 -22.2  -8.0  310  22 11   8.1   4.4 | -22.1  -7.8  315  25 13   6.3   3.5
 19000 -21.0  -5.8  310  22 11   8.2   4.5 | -21.2  -6.2  315  25 13   6.2   3.4
 18500 -19.9  -3.8  310  21 11   6.7   3.7 | -20.2  -4.4  315  24 12   7.6   4.2
 18000 -18.9  -2.0  310  21 11   6.7   3.7 | -19.0  -2.2  315  23 12   7.7   4.2
 17500 -17.9  -0.2  310  21 11   7.0   3.8 | -17.9  -0.2  315  23 12   7.6   4.2
 17000 -16.8   1.8  310  20 11   7.3   4.0 | -16.7   1.9  315  22 11   7.5   4.1
 16500 -15.7   3.7  310  20 10   7.4   4.1 | -15.6   3.9  320  22 11   7.5   4.1
 16000 -14.6   5.7  310  20 10   8.4   4.6 | -14.5   5.9  320  21 11   7.1   3.9
 15500 -13.3   8.1  310  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -13.5   7.7  320  20 10   7.2   3.9
 15000 -12.1  10.2  310  18 10   8.0   4.4 | -12.4   9.7  320  19 10   6.9   3.8
 14500 -10.9  12.4  310  18  9   8.1   4.4 | -11.4  11.5  320  18  9   6.9   3.8
 14000  -9.7  14.5  305  16  8   7.1   3.9 | -10.3  13.5  320  16  8   7.7   4.2
 13500  -8.7  16.3  305  15  8   6.8   3.7 |  -9.1  15.6  315  15  8   7.9   4.3
 13000  -7.7  18.1  305  14  7   4.5   2.5 |  -8.0  17.6  310  14  7   6.9   3.8
 12500  -7.3  18.9  300  13  6   2.9   1.6 |  -7.1  19.2  300  12  6   5.4   2.9
 12000  -6.9  19.6  300  11  6   2.6   1.4 |  -6.3  20.7  300  11  6   6.6   3.6
 11750  -6.7  19.9  295  11  6   2.0   1.1 |  -5.8  21.6  295  11  6   7.9   4.3
 11500  -6.6  20.1  295  10  5   3.6   2.0 |  -5.2  22.6  295  10  5   7.9   4.3
 11250  -6.2  20.8  290  10  5   7.6   4.2 |  -4.6  23.7  290  10  5   9.4   5.1
 11000  -5.6  21.9  285   9  4   6.3   3.4 |  -3.9  25.0  290  10  5   7.1   3.9
 10750  -5.3  22.5  280   7  4   4.3   2.4 |  -3.5  25.7  285   9  4   5.1   2.8
 10500  -5.0  23.0  270   6  3   3.7   2.0 |  -3.1  26.4  285   8  4   5.0   2.7
 10250  -4.6  23.7  260   5  2   8.3   4.6 |  -2.7  27.1  280   7  4   7.4   4.1
 10000  -3.8  25.2  255   4  2  11.1   6.1 |  -2.1  28.2  275   6  3   6.8   3.7
  9750  -3.1  26.4  250   3  2   8.1   4.5 |  -1.8  28.8  270   6  3   3.4   1.9
  9500  -2.5  27.5  240   3  1   9.4   5.1 |  -1.5  29.3  260   5  3   5.1   2.8
  9250  -1.8  28.8  225   2  1   7.3   4.0 |  -1.1  30.0  250   4  2   1.6   0.9
  9000  -1.3  29.7  220   2  1   8.3   4.6 |  -1.2  29.8  240   4  2   0.9   0.5
  8750  -0.5  31.1  215   2  1  10.9   6.0 |  -0.9  30.4  225   4  2   3.5   1.9
  8500   0.2  32.4  205   2  1  10.1   5.6 |  -0.7  30.7  210   4  2   2.9   1.6
  8250   1.0  33.8  195   2  1  10.5   5.8 |  -0.5  31.1  195   4  2   2.3   1.2
  8000   1.9  35.4  190   2  1  13.6   7.5 |  -0.5  31.1  185   4  2  -3.4  -1.9
  7750   3.1  37.6  185   2  1  18.3  10.0 |  -1.1  30.0  175   3  1 -10.5  -5.8
  7500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC).  It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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