Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 210954
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0354 MDT Thursday, July 21, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, July 21, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 79.3 F/26.3 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1153 ft/min (5.9 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16679 ft MSL (9921 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 84.0 F/29.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9780 ft MSL (3022 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 07/22....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:51:01 / 20:20:03 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 29 min 2 sec (869 min 2 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:05:24 MDT... 71.29 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 07/21/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16948 ft MSL (10190 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15387 ft MSL (8629 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15472 ft MSL (8714 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.4
K index......................... +29.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -65.4 -85.7   240   11    6   1.9   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -60.5 -76.9   235   13    7   5.6   3.0      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -51.1 -60.0   230   16    8   7.7   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -46.5 -51.7   230   15    8   7.7   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -41.8 -43.2   225   14    7   8.0   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -37.0 -34.6   225   13    6   8.0   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -32.2 -26.0   225   11    6   8.8   4.8      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -27.5 -17.5   230   10    5   8.0   4.4   43.0 109.4    10.8      M    M
 29000  -24.5 -12.1   235   10    5   8.0   4.4   42.3 108.1    10.4      M    M
 28000  -22.3  -8.1   240   10    5   7.0   3.9   41.4 106.5     9.8      M    M
 27000  -20.2  -4.4   240   11    6   7.0   3.8   40.3 104.6     9.0      M    M
 26000  -18.1  -0.6   240   12    6   7.0   3.9   39.3 102.8     8.3      M    M
 25000  -16.0   3.2   240   13    7   6.8   3.7   38.4 101.1     7.6      M    M
 24000  -14.0   6.8   240   14    7   6.8   3.7   37.3  99.1     6.8      M    M
 23000  -12.0  10.4   245   15    7   6.8   3.7   36.2  97.2     6.0      M    M
 22000  -10.0  14.0   245   15    8   6.1   3.3   35.2  95.4     5.1      M    M
 21000   -8.2  17.2   250   16    8   6.2   3.4   33.9  93.0     4.0      M    M
 20000   -6.4  20.5   250   17    9   6.2   3.4   32.7  90.9     3.0      M    M
 19500   -5.5  22.1   250   17    9   6.7   3.7   32.2  89.9     2.5      M    M
 19000   -4.5  23.9   250   17    9   7.1   3.9   31.7  89.0     2.0      M    M
 18500   -3.5  25.7   250   17    9   7.1   3.9   31.3  88.3     1.6      M    M
 18000   -2.4  27.7   250   17    9   7.7   4.2   30.9  87.6     1.2      M    M
 17500   -1.3  29.7   245   17    9   7.8   4.3   30.5  86.9     0.8      M    M
 17000   -0.3  31.5   245   17    9   7.5   4.1   30.2  86.4     0.4      M    M
 16500    0.7  33.3   245   16    8   6.9   3.8   29.7  85.5    -0.1    946  4.8
 16000    1.7  35.1   240   16    8   6.9   3.8   29.3  84.7    -0.6    902  4.6
 15500    2.7  36.9   240   14    7   8.0   4.4   28.9  84.0    -1.0    855  4.3
 15000    3.9  39.0   240   12    6   7.8   4.3   28.6  83.5    -1.3    807  4.1
 14500    5.7  42.3   240   10    5   9.3   5.1   28.3  83.0    -1.6    729  3.7
 14000    7.1  44.8   240   10    5   9.3   5.1   28.2  82.8    -1.7    673  3.4
 13500    8.5  47.3   240    9    5   9.5   5.2   28.2  82.7    -1.8    617  3.1
 13000    9.9  49.8   245    9    5   9.7   5.3   28.1  82.6    -1.9    561  2.8
 12500   11.1  52.0   245    9    4   8.3   4.6   28.0  82.4    -2.1    508  2.6
 12000   12.5  54.5   250    9    4   9.1   5.0   27.9  82.2    -2.2    452  2.3
 11750   13.2  55.8   255    8    4   9.2   5.1   27.8  82.1    -2.3    425  2.2
 11500   13.8  56.8   255    8    4   9.5   5.2   27.8  82.1    -2.3    397  2.0
 11250   14.6  58.3   260    8    4   9.0   5.0   27.8  82.0    -2.3    368  1.9
 11000   15.2  59.4   260    8    4   8.6   4.7   27.7  81.9    -2.4    342  1.7
 10750   15.8  60.4   265    8    4   8.7   4.8   27.6  81.7    -2.5    316  1.6
 10500   16.4  61.5   265    8    4   8.9   4.9   27.5  81.6    -2.6    289  1.5
 10250   17.1  62.8   265    7    4   9.1   5.0   27.5  81.5    -2.7    262  1.3
 10000   17.7  63.9   265    7    4   7.9   4.3   27.4  81.3    -2.8    236  1.2
  9750   18.2  64.8   265    6    3   7.0   3.8   27.2  81.0    -3.1    214  1.1
  9500   18.7  65.7   265    6    3   7.3   4.0   27.0  80.6    -3.3    191  1.0
  9250   19.3  66.7   265    5    3   7.3   4.0   26.8  80.3    -3.5    168  0.9
  9000   19.8  67.6   270    5    2   7.3   4.0   26.6  80.0    -3.7    145  0.7
  8750   20.3  68.5   275    4    2   6.0   3.3   26.4  79.6    -4.0    123  0.6
  8500   20.6  69.1   285    5    2   4.4   2.4   26.1  78.9    -4.3    105  0.5
  8250   20.9  69.6   295    6    3   2.7   1.5   25.6  78.1    -4.8     89  0.5
  8000   21.2  70.2   300    7    4   7.2   3.9   25.2  77.3    -5.3     74  0.4
  7750   21.4  70.5   305    8    4  -8.8  -4.8   24.7  76.5    -5.7     59  0.3
  7500   19.8  67.6   305    8    4 -18.6 -10.2   22.8  73.0    -7.9     99  0.5
  7250   18.9  66.0   300    8    4  -7.4  -4.1   21.5  70.8    -9.2    119  0.6
  7000   18.0  64.4   295    7    3 -17.2  -9.4   20.3  68.6   -10.5    138  0.7
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           07/21/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       07/21/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +24.6  LI... +270.0             | K index... +26.9  LI... +269.9
CAPE... +717.4  CIN... -45.5               | CAPE... +809.9  CIN... -4.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.2 -85.4  230  12  6   1.6   0.9 | -65.6 -86.1  240  14  7   1.5   0.8
 45000 -60.7 -77.3  225  16  8   5.4   3.0 | -60.7 -77.3  240  22 11   5.5   3.0
 40000 -51.4 -60.5  225  14  7   8.0   4.4 | -51.4 -60.5  235  20 10   8.5   4.7
 38000 -46.6 -51.9  235  13  7   8.0   4.4 | -46.3 -51.3  245  16  8   8.5   4.7
 36000 -41.8 -43.2  245  12  6   8.2   4.5 | -41.2 -42.2  255  12  6   8.0   4.4
 34000 -36.9 -34.4  245  10  5   8.2   4.5 | -36.4 -33.5  260   9  5   8.0   4.4
 32000 -31.9 -25.4  245   9  5   8.7   4.8 | -31.6 -24.9  275   7  4   8.7   4.8
 30000 -27.3 -17.1  240  10  5   7.8   4.3 | -26.9 -16.4  265   9  4   7.9   4.3
 29000 -24.9 -12.8  240  11  5   7.8   4.3 | -23.9 -11.0  260   9  5   8.0   4.4
 28000 -22.7  -8.9  240  11  6   7.0   3.8 | -21.7  -7.1  255  10  5   7.1   3.9
 27000 -20.1  -4.2  240  13  7   7.1   3.9 | -19.6  -3.3  255  11  6   7.1   3.9
 26000 -17.9  -0.2  235  14  7   7.1   3.9 | -17.6   0.3  255  12  6   7.1   3.9
 25000 -15.9   3.4  235  15  8   6.3   3.5 | -15.5   4.1  250  12  6   6.2   3.4
 24000 -14.0   6.8  240  15  8   6.5   3.5 | -13.7   7.3  245  12  6   6.3   3.5
 23000 -12.2  10.0  240  15  8   6.5   3.6 | -11.8  10.8  240  12  6   6.3   3.5
 22000 -10.3  13.5  240  15  8   6.4   3.5 |  -9.9  14.2  240  12  6   6.3   3.4
 21000  -8.4  16.9  245  15  8   6.4   3.5 |  -8.1  17.4  235  13  7   6.3   3.5
 20000  -6.5  20.3  245  16  8   6.4   3.5 |  -6.2  20.8  230  13  7   6.3   3.5
 19500  -5.6  21.9  245  16  8   6.6   3.6 |  -5.3  22.5  230  14  7   6.5   3.6
 19000  -4.6  23.7  250  16  8   6.7   3.7 |  -4.3  24.3  230  14  7   6.6   3.6
 18500  -3.6  25.5  250  17  9   6.7   3.7 |  -3.3  26.1  230  14  7   6.6   3.6
 18000  -2.5  27.5  250  17  9   7.9   4.3 |  -2.4  27.7  235  14  7   6.7   3.7
 17500  -1.3  29.7  250  16  8   7.8   4.3 |  -1.4  29.5  235  14  7   6.7   3.7
 17000  -0.2  31.6  250  16  8   7.5   4.1 |  -0.5  31.1  240  13  7   6.8   3.7
 16500   0.8  33.4  250  15  8   7.5   4.1 |   0.5  32.9  240  12  6   6.8   3.8
 16000   1.8  35.2  250  14  7   7.6   4.2 |   1.5  34.7  245  11  6   6.9   3.8
 15500   2.9  37.2  245  12  6   7.9   4.3 |   2.5  36.5  245  10  5   7.2   3.9
 15000   4.0  39.2  245  11  6   7.8   4.3 |   3.5  38.3  245   8  4   7.0   3.9
 14500   5.2  41.4  245  10  5   9.1   5.0 |   4.6  40.3  245   7  4   9.0   4.9
 14000   6.5  43.7  240   9  4   9.0   4.9 |   5.9  42.6  245   6  3   8.9   4.9
 13500   7.8  46.0  240   8  4   9.1   5.0 |   7.2  45.0  245   5  2   9.6   5.3
 13000   9.2  48.6  245   7  4   9.1   5.0 |   8.6  47.5  250   4  2   9.8   5.4
 12500  10.5  50.9  250   7  3   8.4   4.6 |  10.0  50.0  255   3  2   8.1   4.4
 12000  11.8  53.2  255   6  3   9.1   5.0 |  11.2  52.2  295   2  1  10.6   5.8
 11750  12.4  54.3  260   6  3   8.9   4.9 |  12.0  53.6  335   2  1  10.3   5.6
 11500  13.1  55.6  260   6  3   8.9   4.9 |  12.7  54.9  360   2  1  10.0   5.5
 11250  13.7  56.7  265   5  3   8.7   4.8 |  13.4  56.1  005   2  1   9.5   5.2
 11000  14.4  57.9  275   5  3   8.4   4.6 |  14.1  57.4  010   3  1   9.7   5.3
 10750  15.0  59.0  280   5  3   8.0   4.4 |  14.8  58.6  015   3  1   9.7   5.3
 10500  15.6  60.1  290   5  3   8.4   4.6 |  16.3  61.3  015   3  1  10.6   5.8
 10250  16.8  62.2  305   5  3   8.7   4.8 |  17.1  62.8  015   3  1  10.3   5.6
 10000  17.4  63.3  315   5  3   6.8   3.7 |  17.8  64.0  020   3  2   9.1   5.0
  9750  17.9  64.2  320   6  3   7.0   3.9 |  18.4  65.1  020   3  2   9.4   5.2
  9500  18.5  65.3  325   6  3   8.3   4.5 |  19.2  66.6  020   3  2  10.2   5.6
  9250  19.1  66.4  330   6  3   8.7   4.8 |  20.0  68.0  020   3  2  10.3   5.7
  9000  19.7  67.5  330   6  3   7.1   3.9 |  20.7  69.3  020   3  2   9.4   5.1
  8750  20.1  68.2  330   7  4   6.7   3.7 |  21.4  70.5  025   3  2   9.7   5.3
  8500  20.7  69.3  330   7  4   8.4   4.6 |  22.2  72.0  025   3  2  11.0   6.0
  8250  21.2  70.2  330   8  4   8.0   4.4 |  23.0  73.4  025   3  2  10.6   5.8
  8000  21.7  71.1  330   8  4   8.7   4.8 |  23.8  74.8  025   3  2  10.9   6.0
  7750  22.5  72.5  325   8  4  11.9   6.5 |  24.7  76.5  025   3  2  16.6   9.1
  7500  23.4  74.1  325   7  4  15.4   8.5 |  26.2  79.2  030   3  2  25.0  13.7
  7250  24.2  75.6  325   6  3  10.3   5.6 |  27.7  81.9  030   4  2  10.4   5.7
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           07/21/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       07/21/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +29.8  LI... +270.6             | K index... +28.0  LI... +270.7
CAPE... +476.9  CIN... -4.3                | CAPE... +501.6  CIN... -17.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.9 -86.6  240  15  8   2.0   1.1 | -66.1 -87.0  235  15  8   2.3   1.2
 45000 -60.9 -77.6  250  20 11   5.4   2.9 | -60.5 -76.9  260  18  9   5.5   3.0
 40000 -51.7 -61.1  265  16  8   9.0   5.0 | -51.1 -60.0  300  15  8   8.8   4.8
 38000 -46.3 -51.3  270  13  7   9.0   5.0 | -45.8 -50.4  295  10  5   8.8   4.8
 36000 -40.3 -40.5  280  10  5   8.4   4.6 | -40.5 -40.9  290   6  3   8.4   4.6
 34000 -35.2 -31.4  270  10  5   8.5   4.6 | -35.5 -31.9  275   7  4   8.4   4.6
 32000 -30.2 -22.4  260  10  5   8.7   4.8 | -30.5 -22.9  260   8  4   8.8   4.8
 30000 -25.7 -14.3  245  11  6   7.7   4.2 | -25.6 -14.1  240  10  5   7.3   4.0
 29000 -23.4 -10.1  240  12  6   7.7   4.2 | -23.4 -10.1  235  11  6   7.3   4.0
 28000 -21.3  -6.3  235  13  6   6.6   3.6 | -21.2  -6.2  230  12  6   7.0   3.9
 27000 -19.3  -2.7  235  13  7   6.6   3.6 | -19.2  -2.6  230  13  7   7.1   3.9
 26000 -17.4   0.7  235  13  7   6.6   3.6 | -17.1   1.2  230  14  7   7.1   3.9
 25000 -15.4   4.3  235  14  7   6.2   3.4 | -15.0   5.0  230  15  8   6.3   3.4
 24000 -13.7   7.3  235  14  7   6.1   3.4 | -13.2   8.2  230  16  8   6.3   3.5
 23000 -11.4  11.5  230  14  7   6.1   3.4 | -11.3  11.7  225  17  9   6.4   3.5
 22000  -9.6  14.7  230  14  7   6.6   3.6 |  -9.4  15.1  225  18  9   6.4   3.5
 21000  -7.7  18.1  225  14  7   6.6   3.6 |  -7.6  18.3  225  19 10   6.4   3.5
 20000  -5.8  21.6  225  14  7   6.6   3.6 |  -5.7  21.7  230  20 10   6.4   3.5
 19500  -4.9  23.2  220  13  7   6.4   3.5 |  -4.8  23.4  230  21 11   6.4   3.5
 19000  -3.9  25.0  220  13  7   6.4   3.5 |  -3.9  25.0  225  19 10   6.4   3.5
 18500  -3.0  26.6  215  12  6   6.4   3.5 |  -3.0  26.6  220  17  9   6.3   3.5
 18000  -2.1  28.2  210  11  6   6.8   3.7 |  -2.1  28.2  215  15  8   7.2   4.0
 17500  -1.1  30.0  205  10  5   6.8   3.7 |  -1.0  30.2  200  14  7   7.2   4.0
 17000  -0.1  31.8  195  10  5   7.0   3.8 |  -0.0  32.0  190  13  7   7.3   4.0
 16500   0.9  33.6  185   9  5   7.1   3.9 |   1.1  34.0  180  12  6   7.4   4.1
 16000   2.0  35.6  170   9  5   7.1   3.9 |   2.2  36.0  165  12  6   7.4   4.1
 15500   3.0  37.4  160   7  4   7.2   4.0 |   3.4  38.1  160  11  6   8.4   4.6
 15000   4.0  39.2  145   6  3   7.1   3.9 |   5.2  41.4  150   9  5   8.5   4.6
 14500   5.1  41.2  130   6  3   9.2   5.1 |   6.5  43.7  145   9  5   8.8   4.8
 14000   6.4  43.5  120   5  3   9.0   4.9 |   7.8  46.0  140   8  4   8.8   4.8
 13500   7.7  45.9  115   5  3   9.4   5.2 |   9.1  48.4  140   8  4   9.3   5.1
 13000   9.1  48.4  110   5  2   9.5   5.2 |  10.5  50.9  135   7  4   9.3   5.1
 12500  10.4  50.7  110   5  2   8.5   4.7 |  11.8  53.2  130   7  3   9.1   5.0
 12000  11.8  53.2  110   4  2  10.3   5.6 |  13.2  55.8  125   6  3   9.6   5.3
 11750  12.5  54.5  110   4  2   9.9   5.4 |  13.9  57.0  125   6  3   9.7   5.3
 11500  13.3  55.9  110   4  2  10.3   5.6 |  14.6  58.3  120   5  3   9.7   5.3
 11250  14.0  57.2  110   4  2  10.4   5.7 |  15.3  59.5  115   5  2   9.4   5.2
 11000  14.8  58.6  110   4  2  10.0   5.5 |  15.9  60.6  110   4  2   9.1   5.0
 10750  15.5  59.9  110   4  2   9.8   5.4 |  16.6  61.9  100   4  2   9.3   5.1
 10500  16.2  61.2  110   4  2  10.1   5.5 |  17.3  63.1  095   4  2   9.9   5.4
 10250  17.0  62.6  110   4  2  10.5   5.7 |  18.0  64.4  090   4  2  10.2   5.6
 10000  17.8  64.0  110   4  2  10.1   5.5 |  18.7  65.7  085   3  2   9.1   5.0
  9750  18.5  65.3  110   4  2   9.2   5.1 |  19.4  66.9  075   3  2   8.8   4.8
  9500  19.9  67.8  110   4  2  10.1   5.5 |  20.1  68.2  070   3  2   9.8   5.4
  9250  20.7  69.3  110   3  2  10.3   5.6 |  20.8  69.4  065   3  2  10.3   5.7
  9000  21.4  70.5  110   3  2   9.3   5.1 |  21.5  70.7  055   3  2   9.7   5.3
  8750  22.1  71.8  110   3  2   9.4   5.2 |  22.2  72.0  050   3  2   8.8   4.8
  8500  22.8  73.0  110   3  2  10.4   5.7 |  22.9  73.2  045   3  2   9.4   5.2
  8250  23.6  74.5  110   3  2  10.5   5.7 |  23.6  74.5  040   3  2   9.8   5.4
  8000  24.4  75.9  110   3  1   9.7   5.3 |  24.3  75.7  035   3  2  10.1   5.5
  7750  25.1  77.2  110   3  1  12.4   6.8 |  25.0  77.0  030   3  2   8.6   4.7
  7500  26.2  79.2  110   3  1  19.4  10.6 |  25.4  77.7  025   3  2   6.7   3.7
  7250  27.3  81.1  105   3  1   6.6   3.6 |  25.8  78.4  020   3  2   7.0   3.8
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |  26.3  79.3  020   3  1   6.7   3.7
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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