Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 181245
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0645 MDT Sunday, June 18, 2017

This forecast is for Sunday, June 18, 2017:

If the trigger temperature of 64.5 F/18.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 342 ft/min (1.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 13668 ft MSL (6056 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 74.0 F/23.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast thin high
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 12104 ft MSL (4492 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 06/19....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:33:28 / 20:27:35 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 54 min 7 sec (894 min 7 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:00:31 MDT... 74.43 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/18/2017 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16766 ft MSL (9154 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16339 ft MSL (8727 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14927 ft MSL (7315 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.8
K index......................... +18.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -67.7 -89.9   300   23   12  -0.9  -0.5      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -65.7 -86.3   300   30   15   7.1   3.9      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -54.9 -66.8   305   31   16   7.7   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -50.3 -58.5   305   29   15   7.8   4.3      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -45.7 -50.3   305   27   14   7.7   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -40.9 -41.6   305   25   13   8.0   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -35.5 -31.9   305   23   12   7.9   4.3      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -30.5 -22.9   305   21   11   8.3   4.6   37.9 100.3    11.4      M    M
 29000  -28.1 -18.6   305   20   10   8.3   4.6   37.4  99.4    11.1      M    M
 28000  -25.6 -14.1   300   19   10   8.1   4.5   37.0  98.7    10.9      M    M
 27000  -23.2  -9.8   300   19   10   8.1   4.4   36.3  97.3    10.4      M    M
 26000  -20.8  -5.4   305   18    9   8.1   4.4   35.6  96.2    10.0      M    M
 25000  -18.4  -1.1   305   17    9   8.1   4.4   35.1  95.3     9.7      M    M
 24000  -16.0   3.2   305   17    9   7.9   4.3   34.4  94.0     9.2      M    M
 23000  -13.7   7.3   305   17    9   7.9   4.3   33.7  92.7     8.7      M    M
 22000  -11.4  11.5   310   17    9   7.9   4.3   33.2  91.7     8.2      M    M
 21000   -9.1  15.6   305   17    9   7.6   4.1   32.4  90.3     7.6      M    M
 20000   -6.3  20.7   305   17    9   7.6   4.2   31.5  88.6     6.9      M    M
 19500   -5.2  22.6   300   17    9   7.6   4.2   31.1  88.0     6.6      M    M
 19000   -4.2  24.4   300   17    9   7.0   3.8   30.7  87.3     6.2      M    M
 18500   -3.1  26.4   300   17    9   7.0   3.9   30.3  86.5     5.8      M    M
 18000   -2.1  28.2   300   17    9   6.6   3.6   29.8  85.7     5.4      M    M
 17500   -1.2  29.8   295   18    9   6.2   3.4   29.2  84.6     4.9      M    M
 17000   -0.3  31.5   295   18    9   6.2   3.4   28.6  83.5     4.4      M    M
 16500    0.6  33.1   295   18    9   6.3   3.4   28.0  82.5     3.9      M    M
 16000    1.5  34.7   295   17    9   6.3   3.5   27.5  81.4     3.3      M    M
 15500    2.4  36.3   295   17    9   5.0   2.8   26.9  80.3     2.8      M    M
 15000    3.0  37.4   295   16    8   4.7   2.6   26.0  78.8     1.9      M    M
 14500    3.6  38.5   290   16    8   5.4   3.0   25.2  77.4     1.1      M    M
 14000    4.4  39.9   290   15    8   6.8   3.7   24.7  76.4     0.4      M    M
 13500    5.2  41.4   285   14    7   6.9   3.8   24.2  75.6    -0.2    428  2.2
 13000    5.9  42.6   285   12    6   3.9   2.1   23.5  74.3    -1.0    395  2.0
 12500    6.5  43.7   280   10    5   6.1   3.3   22.7  72.8    -1.9    362  1.8
 12000    6.5  43.7   275    9    5  -4.8  -2.6   21.2  70.2    -3.3    346  1.8
 11750    6.2  43.2   275    8    4  -4.1  -2.2   20.2  68.3    -4.3    347  1.8
 11500    5.9  42.6   270    7    4  -1.2  -0.7   19.1  66.4    -5.4    349  1.8
 11250    6.0  42.8   265    7    4   0.6   0.3   18.4  65.2    -6.1    340  1.7
 11000    5.9  42.6   260    6    3  -1.5  -0.8   17.6  63.7    -6.9    335  1.7
 10750    5.8  42.4   250    5    3  -1.2  -0.7   16.7  62.1    -7.7    330  1.7
 10500    5.7  42.3   240    5    2  -1.2  -0.7   15.9  60.6    -8.6    326  1.7
 10250    5.6  42.1   225    5    2  -0.1  -0.1   15.1  59.2    -9.4    320  1.6
 10000    5.7  42.3   210    5    2   0.5   0.3   14.4  57.9   -10.1    312  1.6
  9750    5.7  42.3   200    5    2   0.3   0.2   13.6  56.6   -10.8    304  1.5
  9500    5.7  42.3   190    5    2   0.1   0.1   12.9  55.3   -11.5    295  1.5
  9250    5.8  42.4   175    5    3   1.1   0.6   12.2  54.0   -12.2    287  1.5
  9000    6.0  42.8   175    5    3   2.8   1.5   11.6  52.9   -12.8    274  1.4
  8750    6.2  43.2   170    5    3   2.8   1.5   11.1  52.0   -13.4    260  1.3
  8500    6.4  43.5   160    6    3   3.3   1.8   10.6  51.1   -13.9    246  1.3
  8250    6.8  44.2   160    6    3   8.2   4.5   10.3  50.5   -14.3    227  1.2
  8000    7.6  45.7   160    5    3  12.3   6.8   10.3  50.6   -14.2    196  1.0
  7750    8.5  47.3   155    5    2  10.6   5.8   10.5  50.9   -14.1    162  0.8
  7500      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  7250      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  7000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           06/18/2017 at 0900 MDT          |       06/18/2017 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...    +0.4    LI...       +2.2        | CAPE...  +120.4    LI...       +1.6
CINH...     0.0    K Index... +12.5        | CINH...  -139.2    K Index...  +9.8
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.9 -88.4  305  20 11  -1.4  -0.8 | -67.4 -89.3  305  19 10  -1.2  -0.7
 45000 -65.6 -86.1  305  33 17   6.9   3.8 | -65.9 -86.6  315  33 17   6.9   3.8
 40000 -55.1 -67.2  310  32 16   7.6   4.2 | -55.4 -67.7  325  32 17   7.8   4.3
 38000 -50.5 -58.9  310  29 15   7.6   4.2 | -50.7 -59.3  325  29 15   7.8   4.3
 36000 -46.0 -50.8  305  27 14   7.6   4.2 | -46.0 -50.8  320  26 13   7.8   4.3
 34000 -40.6 -41.1  305  25 13   8.1   4.4 | -40.3 -40.5  315  23 12   8.6   4.7
 32000 -35.7 -32.3  305  22 12   8.0   4.4 | -35.1 -31.2  310  21 11   8.8   4.8
 30000 -30.7 -23.3  300  21 11   8.4   4.6 | -30.1 -22.2  310  19 10   8.3   4.5
 29000 -28.2 -18.8  300  20 10   8.5   4.6 | -27.6 -17.7  310  19 10   8.3   4.6
 28000 -25.7 -14.3  295  19 10   8.2   4.5 | -25.2 -13.4  310  18  9   8.0   4.4
 27000 -23.3  -9.9  295  19 10   8.1   4.4 | -22.8  -9.0  310  18  9   8.0   4.4
 26000 -20.8  -5.4  295  18  9   8.1   4.4 | -20.4  -4.7  305  18  9   8.0   4.4
 25000 -18.4  -1.1  295  18  9   8.1   4.4 | -18.1  -0.6  300  17  9   8.0   4.4
 24000 -16.1   3.0  295  18  9   7.8   4.3 | -15.8   3.6  300  17  9   7.7   4.2
 23000 -13.8   7.2  295  17  9   7.8   4.3 | -13.5   7.7  300  17  9   7.7   4.2
 22000 -11.5  11.3  295  17  9   7.9   4.3 | -11.3  11.7  295  16  8   7.7   4.2
 21000  -9.1  15.6  300  16  8   7.9   4.3 |  -8.6  16.5  295  16  8   7.1   3.9
 20000  -6.2  20.8  300  16  8   7.9   4.4 |  -6.5  20.3  295  16  8   7.1   3.9
 19500  -5.0  23.0  300  16  8   7.9   4.3 |  -5.4  22.3  290  16  8   7.2   4.0
 19000  -3.9  25.0  300  16  8   7.3   4.0 |  -4.3  24.3  290  16  8   7.9   4.3
 18500  -2.8  27.0  300  16  8   7.4   4.0 |  -3.1  26.4  295  16  8   7.9   4.3
 18000  -1.7  28.9  300  16  8   7.0   3.9 |  -2.0  28.4  295  16  8   7.4   4.0
 17500  -0.7  30.7  300  16  8   6.8   3.8 |  -0.9  30.4  295  16  8   7.1   3.9
 17000   0.3  32.5  300  16  8   6.8   3.7 |   0.1  32.2  300  17  9   7.0   3.9
 16500   1.2  34.2  300  16  8   6.1   3.3 |   1.1  34.0  300  17  9   6.1   3.4
 16000   2.1  35.8  305  16  8   6.2   3.4 |   2.0  35.6  300  17  9   6.3   3.4
 15500   3.0  37.4  305  16  8   5.1   2.8 |   2.8  37.0  305  17  9   4.7   2.6
 15000   3.7  38.7  305  15  8   4.8   2.6 |   3.4  38.1  305  16  8   4.5   2.5
 14500   4.4  39.9  305  14  7   4.2   2.3 |   4.0  39.2  310  16  8   4.6   2.5
 14000   4.8  40.6  310  13  7   3.6   1.9 |   4.7  40.5  310  15  8   4.6   2.5
 13500   5.2  41.4  310  12  6   3.9   2.2 |   5.4  41.7  310  15  8   4.7   2.6
 13000   5.8  42.4  310  11  6   5.8   3.2 |   6.1  43.0  310  13  7   5.0   2.7
 12500   6.4  43.5  305  11  5   5.4   3.0 |   6.7  44.1  310  11  6   4.3   2.4
 12000   6.6  43.9  300  10  5  -0.5  -0.3 |   7.3  45.1  310  10  5   5.2   2.8
 11750   6.6  43.9  300  10  5   0.0   0.0 |   7.6  45.7  310   9  5   5.2   2.9
 11500   6.5  43.7  300   9  5   1.6   0.9 |   7.9  46.2  310   8  4   7.2   3.9
 11250   6.7  44.1  300   9  4   1.7   1.0 |   8.3  46.9  305   8  4   5.3   2.9
 11000   6.7  44.1  300   8  4  -0.2  -0.1 |   8.5  47.3  305   7  3   2.9   1.6
 10750   6.7  44.1  295   7  4   1.0   0.6 |   8.7  47.7  300   6  3   3.0   1.7
 10500   6.7  44.1  295   6  3  -2.1  -1.1 |   8.9  48.0  290   5  3   5.1   2.8
 10250   6.5  43.7  295   5  3   0.2   0.1 |   9.4  48.9  290   4  2   7.8   4.3
 10000   6.8  44.2  285   5  3   5.2   2.9 |   9.9  49.8  275   3  2   7.5   4.1
  9750   7.1  44.8  270   5  3   4.3   2.4 |  10.5  50.9  255   2  1   7.8   4.3
  9500   7.4  45.3  260   6  3   4.5   2.5 |  11.0  51.8  225   2  1   7.1   3.9
  9250   7.7  45.9  250   6  3   0.6   0.3 |  11.5  52.7  200   3  2   7.2   3.9
  9000   7.7  45.9  240   6  3   1.2   0.6 |  12.2  54.0  195   3  2   9.8   5.4
  8750   7.9  46.2  220   6  3   4.2   2.3 |  12.9  55.2  195   3  2  11.0   6.0
  8500   8.2  46.8  210   6  3   3.9   2.1 |  13.7  56.7  190   3  2  10.6   5.8
  8250   8.6  47.5  200   6  3   6.8   3.7 |  14.6  58.3  185   3  2  11.7   6.4
  8000   9.3  48.7  195   6  3  12.8   7.0 |  15.7  60.3  185   3  2  19.4  10.6
  7750  10.5  50.9  190   6  3  18.8  10.3 |  17.5  63.5  180   3  2  29.3  16.1
  7500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           06/18/2017 at 1500 MDT          |       06/18/2017 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...  +399.3    LI...       -0.1        | CAPE...  +133.8    LI...       -0.8
CINH...  -100.0    K Index... +20.7        | CINH...  -106.8    K Index... +23.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -68.2 -90.8  310  23 12  -0.4  -0.2 | -68.7 -91.7  315  23 12  -0.4  -0.2
 45000 -65.8 -86.4  320  34 17   6.7   3.7 | -66.0 -86.8  320  31 16   7.2   4.0
 40000 -55.5 -67.9  330  32 16   7.9   4.3 | -55.0 -67.0  325  28 14   8.1   4.4
 38000 -50.7 -59.3  325  29 15   8.0   4.4 | -50.2 -58.4  320  26 13   8.1   4.4
 36000 -46.0 -50.8  325  27 14   7.9   4.3 | -44.8 -48.6  315  24 12   8.4   4.6
 34000 -40.1 -40.2  320  23 12   8.8   4.8 | -39.4 -38.9  310  23 12   8.9   4.9
 32000 -34.8 -30.6  310  20 11   9.1   5.0 | -34.1 -29.4  305  22 11   9.2   5.0
 30000 -29.6 -21.3  310  20 10   8.8   4.8 | -29.1 -20.4  310  21 11   8.4   4.6
 29000 -27.0 -16.6  310  20 10   8.8   4.8 | -26.6 -15.9  310  20 10   8.4   4.6
 28000 -24.4 -11.9  315  20 10   7.8   4.3 | -24.1 -11.4  310  20 10   7.7   4.2
 27000 -22.1  -7.8  310  19 10   7.6   4.2 | -21.9  -7.4  310  19 10   7.5   4.1
 26000 -19.9  -3.8  310  18  9   7.6   4.2 | -19.6  -3.3  310  18 10   7.5   4.1
 25000 -17.6   0.3  310  18  9   7.6   4.2 | -17.4   0.7  310  18  9   7.5   4.1
 24000 -15.4   4.3  305  17  9   7.7   4.2 | -15.3   4.5  310  18  9   7.1   3.9
 23000 -13.1   8.4  305  18  9   7.7   4.2 | -13.2   8.2  310  18  9   7.1   3.9
 22000 -10.8  12.6  305  18  9   7.7   4.2 | -11.1  12.0  305  18  9   7.1   3.9
 21000  -8.6  16.5  305  18  9   7.5   4.1 |  -8.5  16.7  305  18 10   7.0   3.8
 20000  -5.8  21.6  300  18  9   7.5   4.1 |  -6.4  20.5  305  19 10   7.0   3.8
 19500  -4.7  23.5  300  18  9   7.3   4.0 |  -5.4  22.3  305  19 10   6.9   3.8
 19000  -3.8  25.2  300  18  9   5.6   3.1 |  -4.5  23.9  300  19 10   5.6   3.1
 18500  -3.0  26.6  300  19 10   5.7   3.1 |  -3.7  25.3  300  19 10   5.8   3.2
 18000  -2.2  28.0  300  19 10   5.3   2.9 |  -2.9  26.8  300  19 10   5.5   3.0
 17500  -1.5  29.3  300  20 10   5.1   2.8 |  -2.2  28.0  295  18  9   5.5   3.0
 17000  -0.7  30.7  300  20 10   5.2   2.8 |  -1.5  29.3  290  18  9   5.7   3.1
 16500  -0.0  32.0  295  19 10   5.4   3.0 |  -0.5  31.1  290  17  9   8.4   4.6
 16000   0.7  33.3  295  18  9   5.4   3.0 |   0.7  33.3  290  16  8   8.2   4.5
 15500   1.4  34.5  290  17  9   7.2   3.9 |   1.8  35.2  285  15  8   8.5   4.7
 15000   2.4  36.3  285  16  8   7.5   4.1 |   3.0  37.4  285  14  7   8.5   4.7
 14500   3.4  38.1  280  14  7   8.0   4.4 |   4.3  39.7  290  13  7   8.2   4.5
 14000   4.6  40.3  280  13  7   8.4   4.6 |   5.4  41.7  290  11  6   7.8   4.3
 13500   5.9  42.6  280  12  6   8.3   4.6 |   6.4  43.5  290  10  5   7.5   4.1
 13000   7.0  44.6  280   9  5   7.5   4.1 |   7.3  45.1  295   8  4   6.1   3.3
 12500   7.9  46.2  280   8  4   6.8   3.7 |   8.3  46.9  300   6  3   7.2   4.0
 12000   8.7  47.7  280   6  3   3.2   1.7 |   9.2  48.6  300   4  2   4.9   2.7
 11750   8.9  48.0  280   5  2   4.4   2.4 |   9.5  49.1  300   4  2   5.4   3.0
 11500   9.3  48.7  275   4  2   7.3   4.0 |  10.0  50.0  300   3  1   7.0   3.8
 11250   9.9  49.8  270   3  2   6.1   3.3 |  10.5  50.9  300   2  1   4.9   2.7
 11000  10.2  50.4  255   2  1   4.2   2.3 |  10.7  51.3  280   1  1   2.3   1.3
 10750  10.5  50.9  225   2  1   3.4   1.9 |  10.9  51.6  240   1  1   2.6   1.4
 10500  10.9  51.6  195   2  1   8.4   4.6 |  11.1  52.0  200   1  1   3.7   2.0
 10250  11.7  53.1  175   3  1  11.6   6.3 |  11.5  52.7  175   2  1   7.5   4.1
 10000  12.4  54.3  170   3  2   8.5   4.7 |  12.2  54.0  165   3  1   9.2   5.1
  9750  13.1  55.6  165   3  2   9.4   5.1 |  12.8  55.0  160   3  2   8.8   4.8
  9500  13.8  56.8  160   4  2   8.8   4.9 |  13.5  56.3  160   3  2   9.2   5.0
  9250  14.4  57.9  155   4  2   8.9   4.9 |  14.2  57.6  155   4  2   8.1   4.4
  9000  15.1  59.2  155   4  2  10.3   5.7 |  14.8  58.6  155   4  2   9.0   4.9
  8750  16.0  60.8  155   4  2  11.1   6.1 |  15.5  59.9  155   4  2  10.9   6.0
  8500  16.8  62.2  150   4  2  10.7   5.9 |  16.3  61.3  150   4  2  10.3   5.6
  8250  17.6  63.7  150   4  2  11.2   6.1 |  17.1  62.8  150   4  2  11.0   6.0
  8000  18.6  65.5  150   5  2  18.4  10.1 |  18.0  64.4  150   4  2  14.9   8.2
  7750  20.3  68.5  150   4  2  28.7  15.7 |  19.3  66.7  150   4  2  19.7  10.8
  7500     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC).  It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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