Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 121525
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0825 MST Friday, December 12, 2014

This forecast is for Friday, December 12, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 62.0 F/16.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 278 ft/min (1.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 10250 ft MSL (3492 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 61.0 F/16.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8113 ft MSL (1355 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 12/13..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:08:22 / 16:37:18 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 28 min 56 sec (568 min 56 sec)
Altitude of sun at 11:52:53 MST... 28.01 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 12/12/2014 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 13880 ft MSL (7122 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 23628 ft MSL (16870 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 19399 ft MSL (12641 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.5
K index......................... -38.9

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -66.5 -87.7   305   19   10  -1.1  -0.6      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -67.7 -89.9   320   23   12   4.3   2.4      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -61.6 -78.9   335   37   19   3.4   1.9      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -57.3 -71.1   335   32   16   7.6   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -52.8 -63.0   340   25   13   7.6   4.2      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -48.1 -54.6   345   19   10   7.9   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -43.4 -46.1   350   16    8   7.9   4.4      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -38.6 -37.5   360   11    6   8.1   4.5   31.3  88.4    11.7      M    M
 29000  -36.1 -33.0   015    9    5   8.1   4.5   30.7  87.2    11.4      M    M
 28000  -33.7 -28.7   030    8    4   8.1   4.5   30.1  86.2    11.1      M    M
 27000  -30.7 -23.3   055    6    3   7.7   4.2   29.3  84.7    10.6      M    M
 26000  -28.4 -19.1   085    5    3   7.7   4.2   28.5  83.2    10.0      M    M
 25000  -26.1 -15.0   110    6    3   7.7   4.2   27.8  82.0     9.6      M    M
 24000  -23.9 -11.0   130    7    4   7.5   4.1   27.0  80.6     9.1      M    M
 23000  -21.6  -6.9   140    9    5   7.5   4.1   26.2  79.1     8.4      M    M
 22000  -19.4  -2.9   150   11    6   7.5   4.1   25.4  77.7     7.9      M    M
 21000  -17.0   1.4   165   12    6   8.2   4.5   24.8  76.6     7.4      M    M
 20000  -14.6   5.7   180   14    7   8.2   4.5   24.2  75.5     7.0      M    M
 19500  -13.3   8.1   185   15    8   8.2   4.5   23.9  75.1     6.8      M    M
 19000  -12.1  10.2   190   16    8   8.2   4.5   23.7  74.7     6.7      M    M
 18500  -10.9  12.4   195   17    9   8.5   4.6   23.5  74.3     6.5      M    M
 18000   -9.6  14.7   200   17    9   8.5   4.7   23.3  73.9     6.4      M    M
 17500   -8.4  16.9   205   18    9   7.7   4.2   23.0  73.4     6.2      M    M
 17000   -7.2  19.0   210   17    9   7.6   4.2   22.6  72.7     5.9      M    M
 16500   -6.1  21.0   220   16    8   7.4   4.0   22.3  72.1     5.6      M    M
 16000   -5.1  22.8   225   13    7   6.9   3.8   21.8  71.3     5.2      M    M
 15500   -4.0  24.8   240   10    5   6.8   3.8   21.4  70.5     4.8      M    M
 15000   -2.9  26.8   250    8    4   8.1   4.5   21.0  69.8     4.5      M    M
 14500   -1.7  28.9   260    6    3   8.0   4.4   20.7  69.3     4.2      M    M
 14000   -0.6  30.9   270    5    2   7.8   4.3   20.4  68.8     4.0      M    M
 13500    1.2  34.2   270    3    2   7.9   4.3   20.0  67.9     3.5      M    M
 13000    2.2  36.0   260    3    1   6.5   3.6   19.5  67.2     3.1      M    M
 12500    3.2  37.8   245    3    2   5.8   3.2   19.1  66.3     2.7      M    M
 12000    4.0  39.2   230    4    2   5.7   3.2   18.4  65.0     2.0      M    M
 11750    4.4  39.9   230    5    3   5.6   3.1   18.0  64.5     1.7      M    M
 11500    4.8  40.6   225    7    3   5.8   3.2   17.7  63.9     1.4      M    M
 11250    5.2  41.4   225    8    4   5.2   2.9   17.4  63.3     1.1      M    M
 11000    5.6  42.1   220    8    4   5.7   3.1   17.0  62.7     0.7      M    M
 10750    6.1  43.0   220    9    5   6.7   3.7   16.8  62.2     0.4      M    M
 10500    6.5  43.7   220   10    5   6.5   3.6   16.5  61.8     0.2      M    M
 10250    7.0  44.6   220   12    6   6.2   3.4   16.3  61.3    -0.1    273  1.4
 10000    7.5  45.5   215   12    6   6.3   3.4   16.0  60.8    -0.3    252  1.3
  9750    7.9  46.2   215   12    6   6.7   3.7   15.8  60.4    -0.6    230  1.2
  9500    8.4  47.1   215   13    6   7.1   3.9   15.5  60.0    -0.8    208  1.1
  9250    8.9  48.0   215   13    7   5.6   3.1   15.3  59.6    -1.0    186  0.9
  9000    9.3  48.7   210   12    6   4.2   2.3   14.9  58.8    -1.4    168  0.9
  8750    9.7  49.5   210   12    6   6.0   3.3   14.6  58.2    -1.8    149  0.8
  8500   10.1  50.2   210   11    6   6.2   3.4   14.3  57.8    -2.0    128  0.6
  8250   10.4  50.7   210   10    5   0.1   0.1   13.9  56.9    -2.5    112  0.6
  8000   10.1  50.2   215    9    4  -7.4  -4.1   12.8  55.1    -3.5    114  0.6
  7750    9.8  49.6   220    7    4   4.9   2.7   11.8  53.2    -4.6    116  0.6
  7500   10.3  50.5   230    7    4  -5.7  -3.1   11.5  52.7    -4.9     95  0.5
  7250    8.2  46.8   240    7    3 -43.3 -23.7    9.1  48.3    -7.3    148  0.7
  7000    4.6  40.3   250    6    3 -48.6 -26.6    5.1  41.2   -11.3    251  1.3
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           12/12/2014 at 0800 MST          |       12/12/2014 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -34.9  LI... +2.9               | K index... -40.3  LI... +3.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.8                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -67.0 -88.6  300  14  7  -0.7  -0.4 | -66.3 -87.3  265  13  7  -0.9  -0.5
 45000 -67.6 -89.7  310  17  9   3.9   2.2 | -67.2 -89.0  280  19 10   4.3   2.3
 40000 -61.9 -79.4  325  26 13   3.4   1.9 | -61.2 -78.2  295  21 11   3.4   1.8
 38000 -57.3 -71.1  330  22 11   8.1   4.4 | -56.8 -70.2  295  17  9   7.7   4.2
 36000 -52.5 -62.5  330  17  9   8.1   4.4 | -52.2 -62.0  295  12  6   7.7   4.2
 34000 -47.7 -53.9  335  13  7   7.9   4.3 | -47.6 -53.7  290   7  4   7.7   4.2
 32000 -43.0 -45.4  335  10  5   7.9   4.3 | -43.0 -45.4  275   4  2   7.7   4.2
 30000 -38.2 -36.8  345   6  3   8.1   4.4 | -38.3 -36.9  205   3  1   8.1   4.5
 29000 -35.8 -32.4  360   4  2   8.1   4.5 | -35.8 -32.4  185   4  2   8.1   4.5
 28000 -33.4 -28.1  030   3  1   8.1   4.5 | -32.8 -27.0  175   6  3   8.2   4.5
 27000 -30.4 -22.7  105   3  1   7.8   4.3 | -30.4 -22.7  175   9  4   7.7   4.3
 26000 -28.0 -18.4  140   4  2   7.8   4.3 | -28.1 -18.6  170  12  6   7.7   4.2
 25000 -25.7 -14.3  155   7  4   7.8   4.3 | -25.8 -14.4  170  14  7   7.7   4.2
 24000 -23.5 -10.3  160   9  5   7.0   3.8 | -23.5 -10.3  170  17  9   7.2   3.9
 23000 -21.4  -6.5  165  11  6   7.0   3.8 | -21.4  -6.5  175  18  9   7.2   3.9
 22000 -19.3  -2.7  170  13  7   7.0   3.8 | -19.2  -2.6  175  20 10   7.2   3.9
 21000 -17.1   1.2  175  14  7   7.8   4.3 | -16.9   1.6  180  20 10   7.9   4.3
 20000 -14.7   5.5  185  15  8   7.8   4.3 | -14.6   5.7  185  20 10   7.9   4.3
 19500 -13.5   7.7  190  16  8   7.9   4.3 | -13.4   7.9  185  20 10   7.9   4.3
 19000 -12.4   9.7  190  17  9   8.0   4.4 | -12.2  10.0  190  20 10   8.0   4.4
 18500 -11.1  12.0  195  17  9   8.5   4.7 | -11.0  12.2  190  20 10   8.4   4.6
 18000  -9.8  14.4  200  18  9   8.6   4.7 |  -9.7  14.5  195  20 10   8.4   4.6
 17500  -8.6  16.5  200  18  9   7.7   4.2 |  -8.5  16.7  195  21 11   7.8   4.3
 17000  -7.5  18.5  205  16  8   7.6   4.2 |  -7.4  18.7  195  21 11   7.7   4.2
 16500  -6.3  20.7  205  14  7   7.4   4.1 |  -6.2  20.8  195  22 11   7.3   4.0
 16000  -5.3  22.5  215  11  5   7.2   4.0 |  -5.2  22.6  200  19 10   6.4   3.5
 15500  -4.2  24.4  225   7  4   7.3   4.0 |  -4.3  24.3  200  16  8   6.3   3.5
 15000  -3.1  26.4  235   5  2   7.6   4.2 |  -3.2  26.2  205  14  7   7.9   4.3
 14500  -2.0  28.4  225   3  2   7.5   4.1 |  -2.1  28.2  200  12  6   7.7   4.2
 14000  -0.9  30.4  205   3  1   7.7   4.2 |  -0.3  31.5  200  12  6   8.1   4.5
 13500   0.9  33.6  195   3  2   7.7   4.2 |   0.9  33.6  200  12  6   8.1   4.5
 13000   1.9  35.4  200   3  2   6.9   3.8 |   2.0  35.6  205  13  7   6.9   3.8
 12500   3.0  37.4  210   4  2   7.4   4.1 |   3.1  37.6  205  14  7   6.0   3.3
 12000   4.0  39.2  220   5  3   6.5   3.6 |   4.0  39.2  205  14  7   6.7   3.7
 11750   4.5  40.1  220   5  3   6.6   3.6 |   4.4  39.9  205  14  7   6.4   3.5
 11500   5.0  41.0  225   6  3   6.8   3.7 |   4.9  40.8  205  14  7   6.8   3.7
 11250   5.5  41.9  230   7  3   6.0   3.3 |   5.4  41.7  205  14  7   5.8   3.2
 11000   5.9  42.6  230   7  4   6.1   3.4 |   5.8  42.4  210  14  7   6.5   3.6
 10750   6.4  43.5  235   8  4   7.0   3.9 |   6.3  43.3  210  13  7   7.9   4.3
 10500   6.9  44.4  235   8  4   6.7   3.7 |   6.9  44.4  210  13  7   7.9   4.3
 10250   7.4  45.3  235   9  5   7.1   3.9 |   7.5  45.5  210  13  7   6.6   3.6
 10000   7.9  46.2  235   9  5   7.7   4.2 |   7.9  46.2  210  13  6   6.7   3.7
  9750   8.5  47.3  240   9  5   7.8   4.3 |   8.5  47.3  210  12  6   8.4   4.6
  9500   9.1  48.4  240  10  5   8.1   4.4 |   9.0  48.2  210  12  6   8.5   4.6
  9250   9.6  49.3  245  10  5   6.4   3.5 |   9.6  49.3  210  11  6   7.2   3.9
  9000  10.0  50.0  245  10  5   4.9   2.7 |  10.1  50.2  210  11  6   5.9   3.3
  8750  10.4  50.7  245  10  5   6.8   3.7 |  10.5  50.9  210  10  5   6.4   3.5
  8500  10.9  51.6  245   9  5   5.9   3.2 |  11.0  51.8  215  10  5   6.0   3.3
  8250  11.2  52.2  245   9  5  -0.2  -0.1 |  11.3  52.3  215   9  5   3.1   1.7
  8000  10.9  51.6  250   9  5  -8.8  -4.8 |  11.5  52.7  220   8  4   0.7   0.4
  7750  10.5  50.9  250   8  4   9.1   5.0 |  11.6  52.9  225   8  4   3.4   1.9
  7500  11.4  52.5  250   9  5  -4.5  -2.5 |  11.8  53.2  225   7  4   2.3   1.2
  7250   9.0  48.2  260   9  4 -51.8 -28.4 |  11.7  53.1  230   6  3  -3.0  -1.7
  7000   4.9  40.8  270   8  4 -48.7 -26.7 |  11.4  52.5  230   5  3  -2.9  -1.6
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           12/12/2014 at 1400 MST          |       12/12/2014 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -45.3  LI... +3.1               | K index... -41.1  LI... +2.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -67.1 -88.8  260  23 12  -0.3  -0.2 | -68.1 -90.6  250  24 12   0.2   0.1
 45000 -67.3 -89.1  255  23 12   3.9   2.2 | -67.4 -89.3  240  29 15   4.1   2.2
 40000 -61.6 -78.9  255  18  9   3.0   1.7 | -61.4 -78.5  230  22 11   3.3   1.8
 38000 -57.0 -70.6  255  16  8   8.2   4.5 | -57.1 -70.8  230  20 10   7.7   4.2
 36000 -52.1 -61.8  250  13  7   8.2   4.5 | -52.4 -62.3  225  19 10   7.7   4.2
 34000 -47.4 -53.3  240  11  6   7.6   4.2 | -47.6 -53.7  220  18  9   8.3   4.5
 32000 -42.9 -45.2  215   9  5   7.6   4.2 | -42.7 -44.9  215  18  9   8.3   4.5
 30000 -38.2 -36.8  205  10  5   8.0   4.4 | -37.8 -36.0  210  19 10   7.9   4.3
 29000 -35.2 -31.4  205  12  6   8.1   4.4 | -35.5 -31.9  210  19 10   7.9   4.3
 28000 -32.7 -26.9  205  13  7   8.1   4.4 | -32.5 -26.5  210  19 10   7.9   4.4
 27000 -30.4 -22.7  200  14  7   7.8   4.3 | -30.1 -22.2  205  19 10   7.7   4.2
 26000 -28.0 -18.4  200  17  9   7.8   4.3 | -27.8 -18.0  205  20 10   7.7   4.2
 25000 -25.7 -14.3  195  19 10   7.8   4.3 | -25.5 -13.9  200  21 11   7.7   4.3
 24000 -23.3  -9.9  190  20 11   7.7   4.2 | -23.2  -9.8  200  22 12   7.5   4.1
 23000 -21.0  -5.8  190  22 11   7.7   4.2 | -21.0  -5.8  195  24 12   7.5   4.1
 22000 -18.7  -1.7  190  23 12   7.7   4.2 | -18.7  -1.7  195  25 13   7.5   4.1
 21000 -16.4   2.5  185  23 12   7.6   4.2 | -16.5   2.3  190  25 13   7.4   4.1
 20000 -14.1   6.6  185  22 12   7.6   4.2 | -14.3   6.3  185  25 13   7.4   4.1
 19500 -13.0   8.6  185  22 11   7.6   4.2 | -13.2   8.2  185  25 13   7.4   4.1
 19000 -11.8  10.8  185  22 11   7.8   4.3 | -12.0  10.4  180  25 13   7.6   4.2
 18500 -10.6  12.9  190  21 11   8.5   4.7 | -10.8  12.6  180  25 13   8.7   4.7
 18000  -9.3  15.3  190  21 11   8.5   4.7 |  -9.5  14.9  180  25 13   8.6   4.7
 17500  -8.1  17.4  195  21 11   8.2   4.5 |  -8.2  17.2  185  24 12   8.7   4.8
 17000  -6.8  19.8  195  22 11   8.1   4.4 |  -6.9  19.6  185  24 13   8.7   4.8
 16500  -5.6  21.9  195  23 12   7.7   4.2 |  -5.6  21.9  185  25 13   8.3   4.6
 16000  -4.6  23.7  200  22 11   6.7   3.7 |  -4.5  23.9  190  24 12   7.2   3.9
 15500  -3.6  25.5  200  21 11   6.7   3.7 |  -3.4  25.9  190  23 12   7.2   4.0
 15000  -2.5  27.5  205  19 10   7.2   3.9 |  -2.3  27.9  195  22 11   6.9   3.8
 14500  -0.9  30.4  205  18  9   7.1   3.9 |  -1.3  29.7  195  21 11   7.0   3.8
 14000   0.1  32.2  205  17  9   6.6   3.6 |   0.2  32.4  200  20 10   7.0   3.8
 13500   1.1  34.0  205  17  9   6.6   3.6 |   1.3  34.3  200  20 10   7.0   3.8
 13000   2.1  35.8  205  17  9   7.8   4.3 |   2.4  36.3  200  20 10   7.3   4.0
 12500   3.3  37.9  205  18  9   7.1   3.9 |   3.4  38.1  200  19 10   6.4   3.5
 12000   4.2  39.6  205  17  9   6.3   3.4 |   4.3  39.7  205  18  9   6.6   3.6
 11750   4.7  40.5  205  17  9   6.3   3.5 |   4.8  40.6  205  17  9   6.5   3.6
 11500   5.1  41.2  205  17  9   6.3   3.5 |   5.3  41.5  210  16  8   6.8   3.8
 11250   5.6  42.1  205  17  9   6.3   3.4 |   5.7  42.3  210  15  8   5.8   3.2
 11000   6.1  43.0  205  17  9   6.7   3.7 |   6.1  43.0  210  15  8   5.6   3.1
 10750   6.6  43.9  210  16  8   7.0   3.8 |   6.6  43.9  215  14  7   6.6   3.6
 10500   7.1  44.8  210  15  8   7.5   4.1 |   7.0  44.6  215  14  7   6.5   3.5
 10250   7.6  45.7  215  14  7   5.2   2.8 |   7.5  45.5  220  13  7   6.0   3.3
 10000   7.9  46.2  215  13  7   5.0   2.7 |   7.9  46.2  220  13  6   6.6   3.6
  9750   8.3  46.9  215  13  7   7.6   4.2 |   8.4  47.1  220  13  7   7.6   4.2
  9500   8.9  48.0  210  13  7   7.9   4.4 |   9.0  48.2  220  13  7   8.3   4.5
  9250   9.4  48.9  210  13  6   6.3   3.5 |   9.5  49.1  220  13  7   5.7   3.1
  9000   9.7  49.5  205  13  7   4.5   2.5 |   9.7  49.5  220  13  7   3.0   1.6
  8750  10.0  50.0  205  13  7   4.5   2.5 |  10.0  50.0  220  14  7   4.0   2.2
  8500  10.3  50.5  200  12  6   4.0   2.2 |  10.2  50.4  215  14  7   4.3   2.4
  8250  10.5  50.9  200  12  6   2.9   1.6 |  10.4  50.7  215  14  7  -0.3  -0.2
  8000  10.6  51.1  195  11  5   1.3   0.7 |  10.1  50.2  210  14  7  -5.4  -3.0
  7750  10.8  51.4  195  10  5   4.0   2.2 |   9.8  49.6  205  15  8   0.6   0.3
  7500  11.2  52.2  190   9  5   6.1   3.4 |   9.9  49.8  200  15  8  -1.1  -0.6
  7250  11.5  52.7  185   8  4   4.5   2.5 |   9.3  48.7  200  13  7 -14.9  -8.2
  7000  11.8  53.2  180   8  4   4.5   2.5 |   7.9  46.2  200   9  5 -19.4 -10.6
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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