Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 161001
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0401 MDT Thursday, October 16, 2014

This forecast is for Thursday, October 16, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 67.0 F/19.4 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 338 ft/min (1.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11019 ft MSL (4261 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 68.0 F/20.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1430 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8897 ft MSL (2139 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 10/17....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Increasing
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Weak NVA
Potential height of wave....................... 14396 ft MSL (7638 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Friday 10/17.......... Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:09:35 / 18:20:26 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 10 min 51 sec (670 min 51 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:44:35 MDT... 42.01 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/16/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 15392 ft MSL (8634 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 21016 ft MSL (14258 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 16927 ft MSL (10169 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +4.7
K index......................... -12.5

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -68.7 -91.7   265   69   36   2.0   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -65.1 -85.2   270   72   37   3.4   1.9      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -59.8 -75.6   265   52   27   7.1   3.9      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -54.6 -66.3   265   49   25   8.7   4.8      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -49.4 -56.9   265   46   24   8.7   4.8      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -44.3 -47.7   265   46   24   8.2   4.5      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -38.7 -37.7   270   49   25   8.2   4.5      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -34.0 -29.2   270   47   24   7.7   4.2   35.4  95.6    11.9      M    M
 29000  -31.7 -25.1   270   45   23   7.7   4.2   34.6  94.3    11.4      M    M
 28000  -29.4 -20.9   270   44   22   7.8   4.3   34.0  93.1    11.1      M    M
 27000  -27.0 -16.6   270   42   22   8.3   4.5   33.3  91.9    10.6      M    M
 26000  -24.5 -12.1   270   40   21   8.3   4.6   32.7  90.9    10.3      M    M
 25000  -22.0  -7.6   265   39   20   8.3   4.5   32.3  90.1    10.0      M    M
 24000  -19.5  -3.1   265   36   19   8.5   4.7   31.8  89.2     9.7      M    M
 23000  -16.9   1.6   260   34   17   8.5   4.7   31.3  88.3     9.4      M    M
 22000  -14.3   6.3   255   31   16   8.7   4.8   30.9  87.7     9.2      M    M
 21000  -12.1  10.2   250   28   15   7.3   4.0   30.2  86.3     8.7      M    M
 20000   -9.9  14.2   245   26   13   7.3   4.0   29.3  84.7     8.0      M    M
 19500   -8.8  16.2   240   25   13   7.3   4.0   28.9  84.0     7.7      M    M
 19000   -7.7  18.1   235   23   12   7.4   4.1   28.5  83.3     7.4      M    M
 18500   -6.6  20.1   240   22   11   7.5   4.1   28.1  82.6     7.1      M    M
 18000   -5.5  22.1   240   21   11   7.7   4.2   27.7  81.9     6.8      M    M
 17500   -4.5  23.9   240   19   10   5.6   3.1   27.2  81.0     6.4      M    M
 17000   -3.6  25.5   235   17    9   5.8   3.2   26.6  79.8     5.8      M    M
 16500   -2.7  27.1   225   16    8   6.6   3.6   25.9  78.6     5.3      M    M
 16000   -1.6  29.1   225   13    7   7.3   4.0   25.5  77.9     4.9      M    M
 15500    0.0  32.0   225   10    5   7.5   4.1   24.9  76.8     4.4      M    M
 15000    1.2  34.2   230    7    4   7.6   4.2   24.6  76.2     4.1      M    M
 14500    2.3  36.1   245    5    2   7.7   4.2   24.2  75.6     3.8      M    M
 14000    3.5  38.3   280    5    3   7.8   4.3   23.9  75.0     3.5      M    M
 13500    4.6  40.3   300    7    4   7.7   4.2   23.6  74.4     3.2      M    M
 13000    5.7  42.3   305   10    5   7.4   4.0   23.2  73.8     2.9      M    M
 12500    6.9  44.4   310   13    7   5.5   3.0   22.9  73.2     2.6      M    M
 12000    7.4  45.3   310   18    9   4.3   2.4   21.9  71.5     1.6      M    M
 11750    7.7  45.9   310   21   11   4.1   2.3   21.5  70.7     1.2      M    M
 11500    8.0  46.4   310   23   12   4.1   2.3   21.1  69.9     0.7      M    M
 11250    8.3  46.9   310   26   13   4.5   2.5   20.6  69.1     0.3      M    M
 11000    8.6  47.5   310   26   14   4.0   2.2   20.2  68.4    -0.1    333  1.7
 10750    8.8  47.8   310   27   14   3.2   1.8   19.7  67.5    -0.7    320  1.6
 10500    8.9  48.0   310   29   15   3.5   1.9   19.2  66.6    -1.2    306  1.6
 10250    9.1  48.4   310   30   15   3.9   2.1   18.7  65.7    -1.7    293  1.5
 10000    9.5  49.1   310   28   15   6.2   3.4   18.4  65.1    -2.1    275  1.4
  9750   10.0  50.0   310   27   14   7.7   4.2   18.2  64.7    -2.4    253  1.3
  9500   10.5  50.9   315   25   13   7.5   4.1   18.0  64.4    -2.6    229  1.2
  9250   11.1  52.0   315   24   12   7.6   4.2   17.8  64.1    -2.8    206  1.0
  9000   11.6  52.9   315   23   12   7.5   4.1   17.7  63.8    -2.9    181  0.9
  8750   12.2  54.0   315   21   11   7.7   4.2   17.5  63.5    -3.1    157  0.8
  8500   12.8  55.0   315   20   10   6.7   3.7   17.3  63.2    -3.3    133  0.7
  8250   13.1  55.6   315   19   10   1.4   0.7   16.9  62.5    -3.7    116  0.6
  8000   13.0  55.4   315   19   10  -3.7  -2.1   16.1  60.9    -4.6    112  0.6
  7750   12.9  55.2   315   18    9   3.7   2.0   15.2  59.4    -5.4    108  0.5
  7500   13.1  55.6   310   16    8  -5.9  -3.2   14.7  58.5    -5.9     93  0.5
  7250   11.6  52.9   305   14    7 -30.3 -16.6   12.8  55.0    -7.9    131  0.7
  7000    9.1  48.4   300   11    6 -30.4 -16.7   10.1  50.1   -10.6    197  1.0
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           10/16/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       10/16/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... -5.5  LI... +4.1                | K index... -6.6  LI... +4.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.6                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.8 -88.2  275  63 32   1.2   0.7 | -65.6 -86.1  275  55 28   1.2   0.7
 45000 -64.5 -84.1  275  69 36   3.3   1.8 | -63.5 -82.3  275  74 38   2.6   1.4
 40000 -59.5 -75.1  265  61 31   5.4   3.0 | -59.3 -74.7  270  80 41   6.2   3.4
 38000 -54.6 -66.3  265  58 30   8.2   4.5 | -54.7 -66.5  270  75 38   7.6   4.2
 36000 -49.7 -57.5  265  56 29   8.2   4.5 | -50.2 -58.4  265  69 36   7.6   4.2
 34000 -44.2 -47.6  265  55 28   8.1   4.5 | -45.4 -49.7  270  65 33   8.1   4.5
 32000 -39.4 -38.9  270  54 28   8.1   4.5 | -40.5 -40.9  270  62 32   8.1   4.5
 30000 -34.9 -30.8  270  53 27   7.1   3.9 | -36.0 -32.8  265  57 29   7.2   4.0
 29000 -32.8 -27.0  270  52 27   7.1   3.9 | -33.8 -28.8  265  54 28   7.2   4.0
 28000 -30.6 -23.1  265  52 27   7.1   3.9 | -31.7 -25.1  260  51 26   7.2   3.9
 27000 -28.2 -18.8  265  49 25   8.5   4.7 | -28.6 -19.5  260  49 25   8.6   4.7
 26000 -25.6 -14.1  255  45 23   8.5   4.7 | -26.0 -14.8  260  48 24   8.6   4.7
 25000 -23.1  -9.6  250  42 22   8.5   4.7 | -23.5 -10.3  260  46 24   8.7   4.8
 24000 -20.7  -5.3  245  40 21   7.2   4.0 | -21.1  -6.0  260  45 23   7.6   4.1
 23000 -18.6  -1.5  245  39 20   7.2   3.9 | -18.8  -1.8  260  43 22   7.6   4.1
 22000 -16.4   2.5  245  37 19   7.2   3.9 | -16.6   2.1  260  41 21   7.5   4.1
 21000 -14.2   6.4  245  35 18   7.5   4.1 | -14.2   6.4  265  39 20   8.2   4.5
 20000 -11.9  10.6  245  32 17   7.6   4.1 | -11.8  10.8  265  37 19   8.2   4.5
 19500 -10.8  12.6  245  31 16   7.6   4.2 | -10.5  13.1  265  36 19   8.2   4.5
 19000  -9.7  14.5  245  30 15   7.8   4.3 |  -9.3  15.3  270  35 18   7.6   4.2
 18500  -8.5  16.7  250  28 15   8.1   4.4 |  -8.2  17.2  270  33 17   7.3   4.0
 18000  -7.3  18.9  250  27 14   8.3   4.6 |  -7.1  19.2  270  32 16   7.3   4.0
 17500  -6.2  20.8  255  25 13   6.0   3.3 |  -6.0  21.2  270  30 16   7.1   3.9
 17000  -5.3  22.5  250  22 11   6.1   3.4 |  -5.0  23.0  270  29 15   7.1   3.9
 16500  -4.4  24.1  250  19 10   6.5   3.6 |  -3.9  25.0  270  28 15   7.0   3.8
 16000  -2.8  27.0  255  16  8   7.0   3.8 |  -2.9  26.8  270  27 14   6.9   3.8
 15500  -1.8  28.8  260  13  7   7.1   3.9 |  -1.8  28.8  270  25 13   6.9   3.8
 15000  -0.7  30.7  265  11  6   7.1   3.9 |  -0.8  30.6  275  24 12   6.5   3.6
 14500   0.4  32.7  275   9  5   7.0   3.8 |   0.2  32.4  275  23 12   6.6   3.6
 14000   1.4  34.5  285   9  5   6.8   3.7 |   1.1  34.0  275  22 11   6.1   3.3
 13500   2.4  36.3  295  10  5   6.7   3.7 |   2.5  36.5  275  20 10   6.1   3.3
 13000   3.3  37.9  305  10  5   6.0   3.3 |   3.3  37.9  275  19 10   5.8   3.2
 12500   4.2  39.6  315  11  6   5.4   3.0 |   4.1  39.4  275  17  9   5.7   3.1
 12000   4.9  40.8  320  12  6   5.2   2.9 |   4.9  40.8  275  16  8   5.8   3.2
 11750   5.2  41.4  320  12  6   5.1   2.8 |   5.3  41.5  275  15  8   5.9   3.3
 11500   5.6  42.1  325  12  6   5.2   2.9 |   5.7  42.3  270  14  7   5.8   3.2
 11250   5.9  42.6  325  12  6   5.4   3.0 |   6.0  42.8  270  13  7   4.8   2.7
 11000   6.3  43.3  330  12  6   5.1   2.8 |   6.3  43.3  265  12  6   4.9   2.7
 10750   6.6  43.9  330  11  6   4.8   2.6 |   6.7  44.1  265  11  6   5.5   3.0
 10500   7.0  44.6  335  11  5   4.9   2.7 |   7.0  44.6  260  10  5   5.4   3.0
 10250   7.3  45.1  340  10  5   5.6   3.1 |   7.4  45.3  255  10  5   3.7   2.0
 10000   7.8  46.0  345  10  5   6.5   3.6 |   7.6  45.7  250   8  4   4.3   2.4
  9750   8.3  46.9  350  10  5   6.6   3.6 |   8.0  46.4  250   6  3   6.4   3.5
  9500   8.7  47.7  355   9  5   6.7   3.7 |   8.5  47.3  250   4  2   6.2   3.4
  9250   9.2  48.6  360   9  5   7.3   4.0 |   8.9  48.0  265   2  1   6.2   3.4
  9000   9.8  49.6  005  10  5   7.5   4.1 |   9.3  48.7  340   2  1   6.5   3.5
  8750  10.4  50.7  010  10  5   7.9   4.3 |   9.9  49.8  015   3  2   9.5   5.2
  8500  11.0  51.8  010  10  5   7.2   4.0 |  10.7  51.3  025   4  2  11.1   6.1
  8250  11.4  52.5  010  11  6   5.8   3.2 |  11.5  52.7  030   5  3  10.2   5.6
  8000  11.8  53.2  005  12  6   4.7   2.6 |  12.2  54.0  030   5  3  10.3   5.6
  7750  12.2  54.0  005  12  6   7.6   4.1 |  13.0  55.4  035   5  3  10.0   5.5
  7500  12.7  54.9  355  12  6   0.9   0.5 |  13.7  56.7  035   6  3  10.2   5.6
  7250  12.2  54.0  345  10  5  -9.0  -4.9 |  14.5  58.1  035   6  3  10.7   5.9
  7000  11.6  52.9  335   8  4  -2.5  -1.4 |  15.3  59.5  040   6  3  10.4   5.7
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           10/16/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       10/16/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +7.5  LI... +2.7                | K index... +6.8  LI... +3.5
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -66.0 -86.8  280  47 24   0.0   0.0 | -66.5 -87.7  280  46 24   0.7   0.4
 45000 -65.0 -85.0  280  76 39   3.9   2.1 | -64.7 -84.5  280  72 37   3.7   2.0
 40000 -58.8 -73.8  280  73 38   6.8   3.7 | -58.7 -73.7  280  73 38   7.4   4.1
 38000 -54.3 -65.7  280  67 34   7.6   4.2 | -54.0 -65.2  280  66 34   7.9   4.3
 36000 -49.7 -57.5  280  60 31   7.6   4.2 | -49.3 -56.7  275  60 31   7.9   4.3
 34000 -44.9 -48.8  275  57 29   8.3   4.6 | -44.4 -47.9  275  55 29   8.4   4.6
 32000 -39.9 -39.8  275  55 28   8.3   4.6 | -39.3 -38.7  275  52 27   8.4   4.6
 30000 -35.3 -31.5  275  53 27   7.5   4.1 | -34.4 -29.9  275  51 26   8.3   4.5
 29000 -33.0 -27.4  270  52 27   7.5   4.1 | -31.9 -25.4  280  51 26   8.3   4.5
 28000 -30.8 -23.4  270  52 27   7.5   4.1 | -29.4 -20.9  280  51 26   8.3   4.6
 27000 -27.8 -18.0  270  51 26   8.2   4.5 | -26.5 -15.7  280  50 26   7.6   4.2
 26000 -25.4 -13.7  270  51 26   8.2   4.5 | -24.3 -11.7  285  49 25   7.6   4.2
 25000 -23.0  -9.4  265  51 26   8.2   4.5 | -22.0  -7.6  285  49 25   7.6   4.2
 24000 -20.6  -5.1  265  50 26   7.8   4.3 | -19.8  -3.6  285  49 25   7.4   4.1
 23000 -18.3  -0.9  270  48 25   7.8   4.3 | -17.5   0.5  280  50 25   7.4   4.1
 22000 -16.0   3.2  270  46 24   7.9   4.3 | -15.3   4.5  280  50 26   7.5   4.1
 21000 -13.8   7.2  275  43 22   7.3   4.0 | -13.2   8.2  280  49 25   6.9   3.8
 20000 -11.7  10.9  280  41 21   7.3   4.0 | -11.1  12.0  280  47 24   6.9   3.8
 19500 -10.6  12.9  280  39 20   7.3   4.0 | -10.1  13.8  280  45 23   6.9   3.8
 19000  -9.5  14.9  280  38 20   8.3   4.6 |  -9.1  15.6  280  44 23   6.8   3.7
 18500  -8.1  17.4  280  36 19   9.0   5.0 |  -8.1  17.4  280  43 22   6.6   3.6
 18000  -6.8  19.8  280  34 18   9.2   5.1 |  -7.1  19.2  280  42 21   6.7   3.7
 17500  -5.5  22.1  280  33 17   7.2   3.9 |  -6.2  20.8  280  40 21   5.9   3.3
 17000  -4.4  24.1  280  31 16   7.4   4.0 |  -5.3  22.5  280  38 20   6.0   3.3
 16500  -3.3  26.1  280  30 15   6.8   3.8 |  -4.4  24.1  280  36 18   5.6   3.1
 16000  -2.3  27.9  280  29 15   6.5   3.6 |  -3.7  25.3  280  33 17   5.3   2.9
 15500  -1.3  29.7  280  28 15   6.3   3.5 |  -2.9  26.8  275  31 16   5.4   3.0
 15000  -0.5  31.1  280  28 14   5.4   2.9 |  -2.0  28.4  275  28 14   7.4   4.0
 14500   0.3  32.5  280  27 14   5.5   3.0 |  -1.0  30.2  270  25 13   7.2   3.9
 14000   1.0  33.8  280  25 13   4.6   2.6 |   0.2  32.4  265  22 12   9.2   5.1
 13500   1.9  35.4  270  21 11   5.4   3.0 |   2.2  36.0  265  21 11   9.0   4.9
 13000   2.8  37.0  260  18  9   6.8   3.7 |   3.4  38.1  260  20 10   7.9   4.4
 12500   3.7  38.7  250  16  8   7.4   4.1 |   4.6  40.3  255  19 10   8.1   4.4
 12000   4.6  40.3  240  15  8   4.5   2.5 |   5.6  42.1  250  18  9   5.4   3.0
 11750   4.9  40.8  235  14  7   5.0   2.8 |   6.0  42.8  240  18  9   5.7   3.1
 11500   5.3  41.5  230  14  7   4.7   2.6 |   6.4  43.5  235  18  9   5.7   3.2
 11250   5.6  42.1  230  14  7   3.9   2.1 |   6.7  44.1  230  17  9   3.8   2.1
 11000   5.9  42.6  220  13  7   4.4   2.4 |   7.0  44.6  225  16  8   3.9   2.2
 10750   6.3  43.3  215  12  6   5.2   2.9 |   7.4  45.3  220  16  8   5.6   3.1
 10500   6.6  43.9  205  11  6   5.1   2.8 |   7.7  45.9  210  16  8   5.2   2.9
 10250   7.0  44.6  195  11  5   6.0   3.3 |   8.1  46.6  205  17  9   5.1   2.8
 10000   7.5  45.5  190  10  5   8.4   4.6 |   8.5  47.3  200  16  8   5.7   3.1
  9750   8.2  46.8  185  10  5   9.8   5.4 |   9.0  48.2  195  16  8   6.4   3.5
  9500   9.0  48.2  180  10  5   9.6   5.3 |   9.4  48.9  190  17  9   6.2   3.4
  9250   9.7  49.5  175  10  5   9.5   5.2 |   9.9  49.8  185  17  9   7.0   3.8
  9000  10.4  50.7  175  10  5   9.5   5.2 |  10.4  50.7  185  17  9   7.5   4.1
  8750  11.1  52.0  175  10  5  10.4   5.7 |  11.0  51.8  180  17  9   7.2   4.0
  8500  11.9  53.4  175  10  5  10.7   5.9 |  11.5  52.7  180  17  9   7.4   4.0
  8250  12.7  54.9  170  10  5  10.0   5.5 |  12.1  53.8  175  17  9   8.1   4.5
  8000  13.4  56.1  170   9  5  10.0   5.5 |  12.7  54.9  175  17  9   8.1   4.5
  7750  14.2  57.6  170   9  5   9.6   5.3 |  13.3  55.9  175  16  8   9.2   5.0
  7500  14.9  58.8  170   9  5   9.8   5.4 |  13.9  57.0  170  15  8   5.4   3.0
  7250  15.6  60.1  165   9  5  10.7   5.9 |  14.0  57.2  170  13  7  -1.0  -0.5
  7000  16.4  61.5  165   9  4  10.3   5.6 |  13.9  57.0  165  10  5   0.1   0.0
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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