Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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753
UXUS97 KPUB 071358
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0658 MST Sunday, February 7, 2016

This forecast is for Sunday, February 7, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 45.5 F/7.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7834 ft MSL (1076 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 37.0 F/3.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7250 ft MSL (493 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 02/08....... Poor

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:59:41 / 17:25:37 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 25 min 55 sec (625 min 55 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:59 MST... 35.79 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/07/2016 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 7442 ft MSL (684 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 9395 ft MSL (2637 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 17197 ft MSL (10439 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12689 ft MSL (5932 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +10.2
K index......................... +5.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -56.8 -70.2   300   39   20   0.6   0.3      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -55.9 -68.6   300   62   32   0.7   0.4      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -60.2 -76.4   315   66   34  -3.0  -1.6      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -60.3 -76.5   325   72   37   3.9   2.1      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -58.0 -72.4   325   82   42   3.8   2.1      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -55.5 -67.9   330   92   47   7.3   4.0      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -51.1 -60.0   330   89   46   7.4   4.0      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -46.6 -51.9   330   86   44   8.3   4.6   23.8  74.8    16.0      M    M
 29000  -43.5 -46.3   325   83   43   8.2   4.5   22.9  73.2    15.6      M    M
 28000  -41.1 -42.0   325   81   42   8.2   4.5   22.3  72.2    15.4      M    M
 27000  -38.6 -37.5   325   78   40   7.9   4.3   21.9  71.4    15.2      M    M
 26000  -36.3 -33.3   325   77   40   7.7   4.2   21.0  69.8    14.7      M    M
 25000  -34.0 -29.2   320   75   39   7.7   4.2   20.2  68.4    14.2      M    M
 24000  -31.7 -25.1   320   74   38   7.8   4.3   19.6  67.3    13.9      M    M
 23000  -29.3 -20.7   320   68   35   8.1   4.4   18.9  66.0    13.4      M    M
 22000  -26.9 -16.4   320   63   33   8.1   4.4   18.3  64.9    13.1      M    M
 21000  -24.5 -12.1   320   58   30   7.0   3.8   17.7  63.9    12.7      M    M
 20000  -22.6  -8.7   320   54   28   6.7   3.7   16.6  61.8    11.8      M    M
 19500  -21.6  -6.9   320   52   27   6.7   3.7   16.1  60.9    11.4      M    M
 19000  -20.6  -5.1   320   50   26   6.7   3.7   15.6  60.0    11.1      M    M
 18500  -19.6  -3.3   320   49   25   6.9   3.8   15.1  59.2    10.7      M    M
 18000  -18.6  -1.5   320   48   25   6.9   3.8   14.6  58.3    10.3      M    M
 17500  -17.5   0.5   320   47   24   6.9   3.8   14.2  57.5     9.9      M    M
 17000  -16.6   2.1   315   47   24   6.4   3.5   13.6  56.5     9.5      M    M
 16500  -15.6   3.9   315   46   24   6.4   3.5   13.1  55.5     9.1      M    M
 16000  -14.6   5.7   315   46   23   6.4   3.5   12.5  54.5     8.6      M    M
 15500  -13.7   7.3   315   46   24   6.4   3.5   12.0  53.5     8.1      M    M
 15000  -12.7   9.1   315   46   24   6.2   3.4   11.4  52.5     7.7      M    M
 14500  -11.4  11.5   315   47   24   6.1   3.3   10.5  50.9     6.9      M    M
 14000  -10.4  13.3   315   47   24   6.6   3.6   10.0  49.9     6.5      M    M
 13500   -9.4  15.1   315   47   24   6.5   3.6    9.4  49.0     6.1      M    M
 13000   -8.3  17.1   315   46   24   7.8   4.3    9.0  48.2     5.7      M    M
 12500   -7.1  19.2   315   45   23   8.2   4.5    8.7  47.7     5.5      M    M
 12000   -6.0  21.2   315   43   22   7.3   4.0    8.3  47.0     5.1      M    M
 11750   -5.5  22.1   315   42   22   8.5   4.7    8.2  46.8     5.0      M    M
 11500   -4.9  23.2   315   41   21   8.2   4.5    8.1  46.6     4.9      M    M
 11250   -4.3  24.3   315   40   20   8.4   4.6    8.0  46.4     4.7      M    M
 11000   -3.7  25.3   315   38   20   8.3   4.6    7.9  46.2     4.6      M    M
 10750   -3.1  26.4   315   37   19   8.3   4.5    7.8  46.0     4.5      M    M
 10500   -2.5  27.5   315   35   18   8.6   4.7    7.7  45.8     4.4      M    M
 10250   -1.9  28.6   315   33   17   7.8   4.3    7.6  45.6     4.2      M    M
 10000   -1.4  29.5   310   31   16   7.1   3.9    7.4  45.2     4.0      M    M
  9750   -0.8  30.6   310   29   15   8.2   4.5    7.2  44.9     3.9      M    M
  9500   -0.2  31.6   310   27   14   9.2   5.1    7.1  44.8     3.8      M    M
  9250    0.5  32.9   310   25   13   7.4   4.1    7.0  44.7     3.7      M    M
  9000    1.0  33.8   315   24   12   6.5   3.6    6.8  44.2     3.5      M    M
  8750    1.5  34.7   315   23   12   4.4   2.4    6.5  43.7     3.3      M    M
  8500    1.7  35.1   315   23   12   0.9   0.5    5.9  42.7     2.8      M    M
  8250    1.6  34.9   320   22   11  -4.1  -2.3    5.1  41.2     2.0      M    M
  8000    1.1  34.0   320   21   11  -8.5  -4.7    3.8  38.9     0.8      M    M
  7750    0.6  33.1   325   19   10  -5.0  -2.7    2.6  36.6    -0.5    117  0.6
  7500    0.2  32.4   325   16    8  -8.8  -4.8    1.4  34.6    -1.6    121  0.6
  7250   -0.8  30.6   320   13    7 -16.5  -9.1    0.0  32.1    -3.0    145  0.7
  7000   -2.0  28.4   320   10    5 -13.9  -7.6   -1.4  29.4    -4.5    174  0.9
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           02/07/2016 at 0800 MST          |       02/07/2016 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -1.8  LI... +277.5              | K index... -5.9  LI... +277.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -2.1                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.1 -69.0  305  34 17   0.8   0.4 | -56.1 -69.0  310  30 15   1.7   0.9
 45000 -54.9 -66.8  310  62 32   0.0   0.0 | -53.4 -64.1  300  56 29   0.6   0.3
 40000 -62.3 -80.1  320  80 41  -5.1  -2.8 | -60.5 -76.9  315  81 42  -4.9  -2.7
 38000 -62.7 -80.9  320  85 44   5.1   2.8 | -61.2 -78.2  315  87 45   4.3   2.3
 36000 -59.7 -75.5  320  86 44   5.1   2.8 | -58.7 -73.7  310  85 44   4.2   2.3
 34000 -56.4 -69.5  320  86 44   9.0   4.9 | -56.0 -68.8  310  84 43   7.0   3.8
 32000 -51.2 -60.2  320  85 44   8.7   4.8 | -51.7 -61.1  315  82 42   7.1   3.9
 30000 -45.4 -49.7  325  83 43   8.1   4.5 | -46.6 -51.9  320  81 42   9.3   5.1
 29000 -43.0 -45.4  325  82 42   8.1   4.4 | -43.8 -46.8  320  82 42   9.4   5.2
 28000 -40.6 -41.1  325  81 42   8.1   4.4 | -41.0 -41.8  320  82 42   9.4   5.2
 27000 -38.2 -36.8  325  80 41   7.4   4.1 | -38.2 -36.8  320  82 42   8.5   4.6
 26000 -36.1 -33.0  325  77 40   7.1   3.9 | -35.8 -32.4  325  83 43   8.0   4.4
 25000 -33.9 -29.0  325  75 38   7.1   3.9 | -33.4 -28.1  325  84 43   7.9   4.4
 24000 -31.8 -25.2  325  72 37   7.4   4.1 | -31.0 -23.8  325  85 44   7.3   4.0
 23000 -29.5 -21.1  325  69 36   7.9   4.3 | -29.2 -20.6  325  81 42   6.1   3.4
 22000 -27.1 -16.8  325  66 34   7.9   4.3 | -27.4 -17.3  330  76 39   6.1   3.4
 21000 -24.8 -12.6  325  63 33   7.9   4.3 | -25.5 -13.9  330  72 37   6.9   3.8
 20000 -22.4  -8.3  325  61 31   7.9   4.3 | -23.4 -10.1  330  67 34   7.0   3.8
 19500 -21.2  -6.2  325  59 31   7.9   4.3 | -22.3  -8.1  330  64 33   7.0   3.8
 19000 -20.0  -4.0  325  58 30   7.9   4.3 | -21.3  -6.3  330  61 32   7.0   3.8
 18500 -18.9  -2.0  325  56 29   7.8   4.3 | -20.2  -4.4  330  59 30   7.3   4.0
 18000 -17.7   0.1  325  54 28   7.8   4.3 | -19.1  -2.4  330  56 29   7.5   4.1
 17500 -16.6   2.1  325  51 26   7.6   4.2 | -18.0  -0.4  330  54 28   7.6   4.2
 17000 -15.6   3.9  325  49 25   6.3   3.5 | -16.8   1.8  330  53 27   8.2   4.5
 16500 -14.6   5.7  325  48 25   6.4   3.5 | -15.6   3.9  330  53 27   8.2   4.5
 16000 -13.7   7.3  330  46 24   6.0   3.3 | -14.4   6.1  325  53 27   6.9   3.8
 15500 -12.8   9.0  330  44 23   6.0   3.3 | -13.4   7.9  325  52 27   6.8   3.8
 15000 -11.9  10.6  330  43 22   6.6   3.6 | -12.0  10.4  325  50 26   5.9   3.2
 14500 -10.4  13.3  330  46 24   7.0   3.9 | -11.1  12.0  325  49 25   6.1   3.4
 14000  -9.5  14.9  330  46 24   5.4   2.9 | -10.3  13.5  330  48 25   4.4   2.4
 13500  -8.7  16.3  330  46 24   5.5   3.0 |  -9.7  14.5  330  47 24   4.5   2.5
 13000  -8.0  17.6  330  45 23   4.3   2.4 |  -9.0  15.8  330  46 24   4.5   2.5
 12500  -7.3  18.9  330  45 23   4.1   2.3 |  -8.4  16.9  325  42 22   4.5   2.5
 12000  -6.7  19.9  325  43 22   3.8   2.1 |  -7.8  18.0  325  38 20   4.0   2.2
 11750  -6.5  20.3  325  41 21   2.3   1.3 |  -7.5  18.5  325  37 19   3.7   2.0
 11500  -6.3  20.7  325  39 20   2.3   1.3 |  -7.2  19.0  325  36 19   3.6   2.0
 11250  -6.1  21.0  325  37 19   3.8   2.1 |  -7.0  19.4  325  35 18   4.2   2.3
 11000  -5.8  21.6  325  35 18   5.5   3.0 |  -6.6  20.1  325  34 17   4.8   2.6
 10750  -5.4  22.3  325  32 16   5.0   2.8 |  -6.3  20.7  325  32 17   4.6   2.5
 10500  -5.0  23.0  325  29 15   4.8   2.6 |  -6.0  21.2  325  30 16   4.3   2.4
 10250  -4.7  23.5  325  27 14   5.7   3.1 |  -5.6  21.9  325  28 15   5.5   3.0
 10000  -4.2  24.4  325  25 13   6.9   3.8 |  -5.2  22.6  330  27 14   6.7   3.7
  9750  -3.6  25.5  325  22 12   7.5   4.1 |  -4.7  23.5  330  25 13   6.2   3.4
  9500  -3.1  26.4  330  20 10   7.9   4.3 |  -4.2  24.4  330  24 12   6.2   3.4
  9250  -2.5  27.5  330  18  9   7.8   4.3 |  -3.8  25.2  335  22 11   6.9   3.8
  9000  -1.9  28.6  330  17  9   7.8   4.3 |  -3.2  26.2  335  21 11   7.3   4.0
  8750  -1.3  29.7  335  15  8   7.7   4.2 |  -2.7  27.1  340  19 10   7.5   4.1
  8500  -0.8  30.6  335  14  7   5.6   3.0 |  -2.1  28.2  340  18  9   7.9   4.3
  8250  -0.5  31.1  335  13  7   2.4   1.3 |  -1.5  29.3  340  16  8   7.8   4.3
  8000  -0.4  31.3  335  12  6   0.7   0.4 |  -1.0  30.2  345  15  8   7.5   4.1
  7750  -0.2  31.6  335  12  6   3.5   1.9 |  -0.4  31.3  345  13  7   8.7   4.8
  7500  -0.3  31.5  325  12  6 -13.2  -7.3 |   0.2  32.4  345  11  6   5.0   2.8
  7250  -2.3  27.9  320  10  5 -31.1 -17.1 |   0.2  32.4  345  10  5   0.3   0.2
  7000  -4.2  24.4  310   9  5 -17.4  -9.5 |   0.3  32.5  345   8  4   4.1   2.3
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           02/07/2016 at 1400 MST          |       02/07/2016 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -0.4  LI... +277.8              | K index... 0.0  LI... +279.8
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.3                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.5
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -56.2 -69.2  310  36 19   1.7   1.0 | -56.3 -69.3  305  32 17   1.0   0.5
 45000 -53.4 -64.1  305  56 29   0.8   0.4 | -54.8 -66.6  300  43 22   0.1   0.1
 40000 -59.3 -74.7  320  77 40  -4.1  -2.2 | -59.9 -75.8  330  79 41  -3.5  -1.9
 38000 -60.3 -76.5  325  82 42   2.3   1.3 | -60.1 -76.2  335  89 46   4.2   2.3
 36000 -58.9 -74.0  330  83 43   2.3   1.3 | -57.6 -71.7  335  88 45   4.1   2.3
 34000 -57.2 -71.0  330  84 43   7.6   4.2 | -55.1 -67.2  335  87 45   5.2   2.8
 32000 -51.6 -60.9  320  79 41   8.3   4.6 | -51.5 -60.7  340  92 47   5.3   2.9
 30000 -46.6 -51.9  315  77 40   8.8   4.8 | -47.8 -54.0  340  93 48   9.2   5.1
 29000 -43.9 -47.0  315  77 40   8.8   4.8 | -44.9 -48.8  340  88 46   9.4   5.1
 28000 -41.3 -42.3  320  77 40   8.8   4.8 | -42.1 -43.8  335  84 43   9.4   5.1
 27000 -38.7 -37.7  320  77 40   8.9   4.9 | -39.3 -38.7  330  81 42   8.8   4.8
 26000 -36.0 -32.8  320  78 40   8.9   4.9 | -36.8 -34.2  335  83 43   8.4   4.6
 25000 -33.3 -27.9  325  80 41   8.9   4.9 | -34.3 -29.7  335  86 44   8.4   4.6
 24000 -30.7 -23.3  325  81 42   8.3   4.6 | -31.8 -25.2  335  88 45   8.5   4.7
 23000 -28.4 -19.1  330  83 43   7.3   4.0 | -29.2 -20.6  335  86 44   8.7   4.8
 22000 -26.3 -15.3  330  85 44   7.3   4.0 | -26.6 -15.9  335  84 43   8.7   4.8
 21000 -24.1 -11.4  335  86 45   6.0   3.3 | -24.0 -11.2  330  82 42   8.3   4.6
 20000 -22.5  -8.5  335  80 41   5.7   3.1 | -21.5  -6.7  330  81 41   8.2   4.5
 19500 -21.6  -6.9  335  77 39   5.7   3.1 | -20.3  -4.5  330  80 41   8.2   4.5
 19000 -20.8  -5.4  330  73 38   5.7   3.1 | -19.0  -2.2  330  79 41   8.2   4.5
 18500 -19.9  -3.8  330  70 36   6.6   3.6 | -17.8  -0.0  330  78 40   6.5   3.6
 18000 -18.8  -1.8  330  67 35   7.2   3.9 | -17.0   1.4  330  75 39   5.6   3.1
 17500 -17.7   0.1  330  64 33   7.3   4.0 | -16.2   2.8  330  72 37   5.5   3.0
 17000 -16.6   2.1  325  61 32   7.9   4.3 | -15.4   4.3  330  70 36   5.1   2.8
 16500 -15.4   4.3  325  59 30   7.9   4.3 | -14.7   5.5  330  68 35   5.1   2.8
 16000 -14.3   6.3  325  57 29   7.1   3.9 | -13.9   7.0  330  66 34   5.1   2.8
 15500 -12.7   9.1  325  54 28   7.0   3.9 | -12.8   9.0  330  65 33   5.1   2.8
 15000 -11.8  10.8  320  53 27   5.4   2.9 | -11.9  10.6  330  63 32   6.1   3.3
 14500 -11.0  12.2  320  51 26   5.8   3.2 | -11.0  12.2  330  61 31   6.1   3.3
 14000 -10.4  13.3  320  49 25   2.7   1.5 | -10.2  13.6  330  58 30   5.0   2.8
 13500 -10.0  14.0  320  49 25   2.8   1.6 |  -9.5  14.9  325  54 28   5.2   2.9
 13000  -9.6  14.7  315  46 24   3.1   1.7 |  -8.8  16.2  325  50 26   2.5   1.4
 12500  -9.2  15.4  315  41 21   2.7   1.5 |  -8.5  16.7  320  45 23   1.6   0.9
 12000  -8.5  16.7  310  36 19   7.1   3.9 |  -7.9  17.8  315  40 21   6.2   3.4
 11750  -8.0  17.6  310  34 18   6.4   3.5 |  -7.6  18.3  315  37 19   3.9   2.1
 11500  -7.5  18.5  305  32 17   6.4   3.5 |  -7.3  18.9  310  35 18   4.2   2.3
 11250  -7.1  19.2  305  30 16   7.0   3.8 |  -7.0  19.4  310  32 17   5.5   3.0
 11000  -6.5  20.3  305  29 15   7.5   4.1 |  -6.5  20.3  310  30 15   7.7   4.2
 10750  -6.0  21.2  305  27 14   7.0   3.9 |  -5.9  21.4  305  28 14   7.7   4.2
 10500  -5.5  22.1  305  26 13   7.3   4.0 |  -5.4  22.3  305  26 13   7.9   4.4
 10250  -4.9  23.2  305  24 12   6.3   3.5 |  -4.8  23.4  305  24 12   6.9   3.8
 10000  -4.5  23.9  305  22 11   5.3   2.9 |  -4.4  24.1  305  22 11   5.7   3.1
  9750  -4.1  24.6  310  21 11   5.6   3.1 |  -3.9  25.0  305  20 11   7.2   4.0
  9500  -3.7  25.3  310  19 10   5.6   3.0 |  -3.3  26.1  300  19 10   8.1   4.4
  9250  -3.3  26.1  310  17  9   4.8   2.6 |  -2.8  27.0  300  17  9   5.1   2.8
  9000  -3.0  26.6  315  16  8   4.0   2.2 |  -2.6  27.3  300  15  8   2.5   1.4
  8750  -2.7  27.1  320  14  7   5.2   2.9 |  -2.3  27.9  300  14  7   4.9   2.7
  8500  -2.2  28.0  325  12  6   6.6   3.6 |  -1.9  28.6  300  12  6   5.1   2.8
  8250  -1.8  28.8  335  11  6   6.6   3.6 |  -1.7  28.9  300  10  5   2.3   1.3
  8000  -1.3  29.7  340  10  5   6.7   3.7 |  -1.6  29.1  305   8  4   1.5   0.8
  7750  -0.8  30.6  345   9  5   6.6   3.6 |  -1.5  29.3  310   6  3   2.9   1.6
  7500  -0.4  31.3  355   8  4   4.5   2.4 |  -1.3  29.7  330   4  2  -1.5  -0.8
  7250  -0.2  31.6  360   7  4   2.7   1.5 |  -1.8  28.8  340   4  2  -6.9  -3.8
  7000  -0.0  32.0  005   7  3   4.1   2.2 |  -2.2  28.0  355   3  2  -2.7  -1.5
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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