Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
UXUS97 KPUB 291113
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0513 MDT Thursday, September 29, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, September 29, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 69.9 F/21.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 588 ft/min (3.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 13574 ft MSL (6407 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 72.0 F/22.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9505 ft MSL (2337 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 09/30....... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:53:37 / 18:45:29 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 51 min 52 sec (711 min 52 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:49:04 MDT... 48.26 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 09/29/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 14728 ft MSL (7561 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 18788 ft MSL (11621 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17347 ft MSL (10180 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.1
K index......................... +16.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -65.8 -86.4   260   25   13   2.5   1.4      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -60.9 -77.6   255   38   20   5.4   2.9      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -52.4 -62.3   265   40   21   5.8   3.2      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -48.9 -56.0   265   38   20   5.9   3.2      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -45.4 -49.7   260   36   19   5.8   3.2      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -41.4 -42.5   260   32   16   6.6   3.6      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -37.5 -35.5   255   27   14   6.5   3.6      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -33.0 -27.4   250   23   12   7.7   4.2   37.4  99.3    11.7      M    M
 29000  -30.7 -23.3   245   21   11   7.7   4.2   36.6  97.9    11.2      M    M
 28000  -28.4 -19.1   240   19   10   7.7   4.2   36.0  96.8    10.8      M    M
 27000  -25.5 -13.9   240   17    9   7.7   4.2   34.9  94.8    10.1      M    M
 26000  -23.2  -9.8   240   16    8   7.7   4.2   34.1  93.4     9.5      M    M
 25000  -21.0  -5.8   240   14    7   7.6   4.2   33.5  92.2     9.1      M    M
 24000  -18.7  -1.7   235   13    7   7.5   4.1   32.5  90.5     8.4      M    M
 23000  -16.5   2.3   235   12    6   7.5   4.1   31.7  89.1     7.8      M    M
 22000  -14.3   6.3   230   12    6   6.2   3.4   30.9  87.7     7.3      M    M
 21000  -12.6   9.3   220   11    6   5.6   3.1   29.4  84.9     6.0      M    M
 20000  -11.0  12.2   215   12    6   5.6   3.1   28.0  82.3     4.8      M    M
 19500  -10.2  13.6   210   12    6   5.9   3.2   27.3  81.1     4.2      M    M
 19000   -9.2  15.4   205   11    6   7.0   3.9   26.8  80.2     3.8      M    M
 18500   -8.2  17.2   200   10    5   7.0   3.9   26.3  79.3     3.4      M    M
 18000   -7.2  19.0   195   10    5   6.8   3.7   25.8  78.5     2.9      M    M
 17500   -6.2  20.8   185   10    5   6.8   3.7   25.3  77.6     2.4      M    M
 17000   -5.2  22.6   175   10    5   6.9   3.8   24.8  76.7     2.0      M    M
 16500   -4.2  24.4   175    9    5   7.2   4.0   24.4  75.9     1.5      M    M
 16000   -3.2  26.2   175    7    4   7.1   3.9   24.0  75.2     1.1      M    M
 15500   -2.0  28.4   175    5    3   8.7   4.8   23.7  74.6     0.8      M    M
 15000   -0.8  30.6   175    4    2   8.5   4.7   23.5  74.2     0.5      M    M
 14500    0.4  32.7   185    3    1   8.8   4.8   23.3  73.9     0.3      M    M
 14000    1.7  35.1   210    4    2   8.8   4.8   23.1  73.6     0.1      M    M
 13500    3.0  37.4   225    5    2   8.9   4.9   23.0  73.4    -0.0    588  3.0
 13000    4.4  39.9   230    6    3   8.8   4.8   22.8  73.1    -0.1    533  2.7
 12500    5.7  42.3   230    7    4   7.1   3.9   22.7  72.9    -0.2    478  2.4
 12000    6.8  44.2   230    8    4   8.9   4.9   22.3  72.1    -0.7    431  2.2
 11750    7.5  45.5   230    9    5   9.4   5.2   22.2  72.0    -0.7    403  2.0
 11500    8.1  46.6   225   10    5   8.2   4.5   22.2  71.9    -0.7    375  1.9
 11250    8.7  47.7   225   11    5   6.3   3.5   22.0  71.6    -0.9    352  1.8
 11000    9.2  48.6   220   11    6   6.4   3.5   21.7  71.1    -1.2    330  1.7
 10750    9.7  49.5   215   12    6   7.0   3.8   21.5  70.7    -1.4    307  1.6
 10500   10.2  50.4   215   13    7   6.6   3.6   21.3  70.3    -1.6    284  1.4
 10250   10.7  51.3   210   14    7   6.0   3.3   21.0  69.8    -1.9    262  1.3
 10000   11.6  52.9   205   16    8   6.2   3.4   20.4  68.7    -2.4    220  1.1
  9750   12.0  53.6   205   17    9   4.1   2.3   20.1  68.2    -2.7    199  1.0
  9500   12.2  54.0   205   17    9   2.0   1.1   19.5  67.2    -3.3    186  0.9
  9250   12.4  54.3   200   16    8   1.0   0.6   18.9  66.1    -3.9    175  0.9
  9000   12.5  54.5   200   16    8   4.9   2.7   18.3  65.0    -4.5    163  0.8
  8750   12.8  55.0   200   16    8  -1.7  -0.9   17.9  64.3    -4.9    146  0.7
  8500   12.1  53.8   200   16    8 -10.7  -5.9   16.5  61.7    -6.3    160  0.8
  8250   11.4  52.5   195   15    8  -7.2  -4.0   15.1  59.2    -7.8    174  0.9
  8000   10.7  51.3   190   15    8 -11.6  -6.4   13.7  56.7    -9.3    187  1.0
  7750    9.5  49.1   190   13    7 -15.4  -8.4   11.9  53.4   -11.2    215  1.1
  7500    8.5  47.3   190    9    5 -10.8  -5.9   10.2  50.3   -13.0    238  1.2
  7250    7.5  45.5   195    5    3 -22.0 -12.0    8.4  47.2   -14.7    261  1.3
  7000      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           09/29/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       09/29/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +16.1  LI... +274.4             | K index... +16.8  LI... +274.2
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.0                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.5 -85.9  255  26 13   2.2   1.2 | -65.2 -85.4  260  25 13   2.3   1.2
 45000 -60.6 -77.1  260  40 20   5.2   2.9 | -60.3 -76.5  260  38 20   5.0   2.7
 40000 -52.5 -62.5  260  41 21   6.3   3.5 | -52.5 -62.5  255  45 23   6.6   3.6
 38000 -48.7 -55.7  260  38 20   6.4   3.5 | -48.5 -55.3  255  41 21   6.6   3.6
 36000 -44.9 -48.8  255  35 18   6.4   3.5 | -44.6 -48.3  250  38 19   6.7   3.7
 34000 -41.1 -42.0  255  29 15   6.4   3.5 | -40.8 -41.4  245  31 16   6.2   3.4
 32000 -37.2 -35.0  250  23 12   6.3   3.4 | -37.1 -34.8  235  25 13   6.1   3.3
 30000 -32.8 -27.0  240  19 10   7.5   4.1 | -32.6 -26.7  225  21 11   7.8   4.3
 29000 -30.6 -23.1  235  17  9   7.6   4.1 | -29.7 -21.5  220  18  9   7.8   4.3
 28000 -27.8 -18.0  230  14  7   7.6   4.2 | -27.4 -17.3  210  17  9   7.2   4.0
 27000 -25.5 -13.9  225  13  7   7.6   4.2 | -25.2 -13.4  205  16  8   7.3   4.0
 26000 -23.2  -9.8  220  11  6   7.6   4.2 | -23.1  -9.6  200  16  8   7.3   4.0
 25000 -20.9  -5.6  210  10  5   7.5   4.1 | -20.9  -5.6  195  15  8   7.2   4.0
 24000 -18.7  -1.7  210   9  5   7.4   4.1 | -18.7  -1.7  195  13  6   7.2   4.0
 23000 -16.5   2.3  215   8  4   7.4   4.1 | -16.6   2.1  190  10  5   7.2   4.0
 22000 -14.3   6.3  215   8  4   6.1   3.3 | -14.4   6.1  190   8  4   6.5   3.6
 21000 -12.7   9.1  215   9  5   5.4   3.0 | -12.6   9.3  205   8  4   6.2   3.4
 20000 -11.1  12.0  215  10  5   5.4   3.0 | -10.8  12.6  220   8  4   6.2   3.4
 19500 -10.3  13.5  215  11  5   5.7   3.1 |  -9.9  14.2  225   8  4   6.3   3.5
 19000  -9.3  15.3  210  11  6   6.6   3.6 |  -9.0  15.8  225   9  4   6.8   3.7
 18500  -8.3  17.1  210  11  5   6.5   3.6 |  -8.0  17.6  225  10  5   6.8   3.7
 18000  -7.3  18.9  210  10  5   7.0   3.8 |  -7.0  19.4  225  10  5   6.4   3.5
 17500  -6.3  20.7  210  10  5   7.1   3.9 |  -6.0  21.2  225  10  5   6.3   3.4
 17000  -5.3  22.5  215   9  5   7.1   3.9 |  -5.1  22.8  225  11  5   6.3   3.5
 16500  -4.3  24.3  210   8  4   6.9   3.8 |  -4.2  24.4  230  10  5   6.4   3.5
 16000  -3.4  25.9  210   6  3   6.9   3.8 |  -3.3  26.1  230   8  4   6.3   3.4
 15500  -2.3  27.9  205   5  3   8.3   4.5 |  -2.3  27.9  230   7  4   8.1   4.5
 15000  -1.1  30.0  195   5  2   8.1   4.5 |  -1.1  30.0  225   7  3   8.0   4.4
 14500   0.1  32.2  190   4  2   8.7   4.8 |   0.1  32.2  225   6  3   8.4   4.6
 14000   1.4  34.5  195   4  2   8.9   4.9 |   1.3  34.3  220   6  3   8.5   4.6
 13500   2.7  36.9  205   5  2   8.8   4.9 |   2.5  36.5  220   6  3   8.6   4.7
 13000   4.0  39.2  210   5  3   8.7   4.8 |   3.8  38.8  220   7  4   8.5   4.7
 12500   5.4  41.7  215   6  3   7.4   4.0 |   5.1  41.2  215   8  4   7.1   3.9
 12000   6.5  43.7  215   7  4   9.4   5.1 |   6.3  43.3  220  10  5  10.1   5.5
 11750   7.2  45.0  215   8  4   9.5   5.2 |   7.0  44.6  220  10  5  10.0   5.5
 11500   7.9  46.2  215   9  5   8.8   4.8 |   7.8  46.0  220  11  6   9.4   5.1
 11250   8.5  47.3  220  10  5   7.7   4.2 |   8.4  47.1  220  11  6   8.0   4.4
 11000   9.1  48.4  220  11  6   8.2   4.5 |   9.0  48.2  225  11  6   8.6   4.7
 10750   9.8  49.6  220  12  6   8.8   4.8 |   9.7  49.5  225  12  6   9.2   5.1
 10500  10.4  50.7  220  12  6   8.5   4.7 |  10.4  50.7  225  12  6   9.2   5.1
 10250  11.7  53.1  220  13  7   8.4   4.6 |  11.8  53.2  225  13  6   9.4   5.2
 10000  12.3  54.1  220  13  7   7.3   4.0 |  12.4  54.3  225  13  6   8.7   4.8
  9750  12.8  55.0  225  13  7   6.5   3.6 |  13.1  55.6  225  12  6   7.8   4.3
  9500  13.3  55.9  225  13  7   7.2   3.9 |  13.6  56.5  220  12  6   7.8   4.3
  9250  13.8  56.8  225  13  7   6.2   3.4 |  14.2  57.6  220  12  6   6.9   3.8
  9000  14.4  57.9  225  13  7   9.5   5.2 |  14.8  58.6  215  11  6  10.0   5.5
  8750  15.0  59.0  230  13  7   2.8   1.6 |  15.6  60.1  215  12  6   9.9   5.4
  8500  14.7  58.5  225  13  7  -5.6  -3.1 |  16.2  61.2  210  11  6   6.6   3.6
  8250  14.4  57.9  225  13  7  -2.4  -1.3 |  16.7  62.1  205  11  6   7.7   4.2
  8000  14.1  57.4  225  13  7  -6.6  -3.6 |  17.2  63.0  195  11  6   6.7   3.7
  7750  13.4  56.1  225  11  5  -6.7  -3.7 |  17.8  64.0  190  11  5  13.5   7.4
  7500  13.2  55.8  215   8  4   3.3   1.8 |  19.3  66.7  190  10  5  26.6  14.6
  7250  13.0  55.4  205   6  3 -17.3  -9.5 |  20.8  69.4  185  10  5   2.9   1.6
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           09/29/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       09/29/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +19.3  LI... +274.0             | K index... +19.6  LI... +274.0
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... M                      | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.2 -85.4  260  24 12   2.7   1.5 | -65.0 -85.0  260  23 12   2.9   1.6
 45000 -60.0 -76.0  260  35 18   4.8   2.6 | -59.6 -75.3  260  33 17   4.7   2.6
 40000 -52.6 -62.7  255  45 23   6.5   3.6 | -52.3 -62.1  255  42 22   6.1   3.3
 38000 -48.6 -55.5  255  42 22   6.5   3.6 | -48.7 -55.7  260  40 21   6.1   3.4
 36000 -44.2 -47.6  250  39 20   6.6   3.6 | -45.0 -49.0  260  38 20   6.0   3.3
 34000 -40.1 -40.2  250  37 19   6.9   3.8 | -40.7 -41.3  265  39 20   7.3   4.0
 32000 -35.9 -32.6  250  34 17   6.9   3.8 | -36.3 -33.3  270  39 20   7.2   4.0
 30000 -31.9 -25.4  240  28 14   6.8   3.8 | -31.6 -24.9  270  34 17   8.0   4.4
 29000 -29.8 -21.6  230  25 13   6.9   3.8 | -29.2 -20.6  270  30 15   8.0   4.4
 28000 -27.8 -18.0  220  23 12   7.5   4.1 | -26.3 -15.3  270  26 13   6.7   3.7
 27000 -25.5 -13.9  215  21 11   7.8   4.3 | -24.3 -11.7  260  22 12   6.8   3.7
 26000 -23.2  -9.8  215  20 10   7.8   4.3 | -22.2  -8.0  250  20 10   6.9   3.8
 25000 -20.9  -5.6  210  19 10   7.8   4.3 | -20.2  -4.4  240  18  9   6.7   3.7
 24000 -18.8  -1.8  210  16  8   6.6   3.6 | -18.4  -1.1  235  16  8   6.4   3.5
 23000 -16.4   2.5  210  13  7   6.6   3.6 | -16.5   2.3  235  15  8   6.5   3.5
 22000 -14.4   6.1  205  11  6   6.6   3.6 | -14.6   5.7  235  13  7   6.4   3.5
 21000 -12.5   9.5  215   9  5   6.6   3.6 | -12.7   9.1  230  11  6   6.3   3.5
 20000 -10.5  13.1  225   7  4   6.6   3.6 | -10.8  12.6  230   8  4   6.3   3.5
 19500  -9.6  14.7  230   6  3   6.8   3.7 |  -9.9  14.2  225   7  4   6.5   3.5
 19000  -8.6  16.5  240   7  3   7.1   3.9 |  -8.8  16.2  225   7  3   7.8   4.3
 18500  -7.5  18.5  245   7  4   7.1   3.9 |  -7.7  18.1  230   6  3   7.7   4.2
 18000  -6.5  20.3  250   8  4   7.1   3.9 |  -6.6  20.1  235   6  3   7.8   4.3
 17500  -5.5  22.1  255   9  5   7.1   3.9 |  -5.4  22.3  240   7  3   7.9   4.3
 17000  -4.4  24.1  255  10  5   7.1   3.9 |  -4.2  24.4  245   7  4   7.8   4.3
 16500  -3.4  25.9  255  10  5   7.1   3.9 |  -3.1  26.4  250   8  4   7.1   3.9
 16000  -2.4  27.7  260  10  5   7.1   3.9 |  -2.1  28.2  250   8  4   7.1   3.9
 15500  -1.4  29.5  260  10  5   7.5   4.1 |  -1.0  30.2  250   9  4   7.8   4.3
 15000  -0.3  31.5  260   9  5   7.4   4.1 |   0.1  32.2  250   9  4   7.8   4.3
 14500   0.8  33.4  260   9  5   8.4   4.6 |   1.3  34.3  250   9  5   8.4   4.6
 14000   2.1  35.8  255   8  4   8.5   4.7 |   2.6  36.7  245   9  4   8.7   4.8
 13500   3.3  37.9  250   8  4   8.6   4.7 |   3.9  39.0  245   9  4   8.7   4.8
 13000   4.6  40.3  245   8  4   8.6   4.7 |   5.2  41.4  235   9  4   8.5   4.7
 12500   5.9  42.6  235   8  4   7.1   3.9 |   6.4  43.5  230   9  5   7.3   4.0
 12000   7.1  44.8  225   9  4   9.5   5.2 |   7.5  45.5  220  10  5   8.3   4.5
 11750   7.7  45.9  225   9  5   9.0   4.9 |   8.1  46.6  215  11  6   8.2   4.5
 11500   8.4  47.1  220   9  5   8.7   4.8 |   8.7  47.7  210  12  6   8.0   4.4
 11250   9.0  48.2  215  10  5   8.0   4.4 |   9.3  48.7  210  13  7   7.5   4.1
 11000   9.6  49.3  210  11  6   7.9   4.3 |   9.8  49.6  205  14  7   6.1   3.3
 10750  10.2  50.4  210  12  6   8.0   4.4 |  10.2  50.4  205  15  8   5.1   2.8
 10500  10.8  51.4  205  12  6   7.7   4.2 |  10.9  51.6  195  17  9   4.6   2.5
 10250  11.3  52.3  200  13  7   7.0   3.9 |  11.2  52.2  190  18  9   4.5   2.4
 10000  11.8  53.2  195  14  7   7.0   3.9 |  11.6  52.9  185  19 10   4.4   2.4
  9750  12.4  54.3  195  15  8   7.6   4.2 |  11.9  53.4  180  20 10   5.4   2.9
  9500  13.6  56.5  185  17  9   8.4   4.6 |  12.4  54.3  180  21 11   7.6   4.2
  9250  14.2  57.6  185  17  9   8.5   4.7 |  13.0  55.4  180  21 11   8.5   4.7
  9000  14.8  58.6  180  18  9   8.1   4.4 |  13.6  56.5  175  21 11   7.9   4.3
  8750  15.4  59.7  180  18  9   9.4   5.2 |  14.2  57.6  175  21 11   8.6   4.7
  8500  16.2  61.2  175  18  9  11.0   6.0 |  14.9  58.8  175  21 11   9.9   5.4
  8250  17.0  62.6  175  18  9  10.8   5.9 |  15.6  60.1  175  21 11   9.9   5.4
  8000  17.8  64.0  175  18  9  10.7   5.9 |  16.3  61.3  175  20 10  10.3   5.7
  7750  18.7  65.7  175  18  9  15.5   8.5 |  17.1  62.8  175  20 10  10.1   5.5
  7500  20.1  68.2  175  16  8  23.6  12.9 |  17.8  64.0  175  17  9   8.1   4.4
  7250  21.6  70.9  170  15  8   9.1   5.0 |  18.4  65.1  170  14  7  12.0   6.6
  7000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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