Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
UXUS97 KPUB 221014
SRGPUB

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0414 MDT Wednesday, October 22, 2014

This forecast is for Wednesday, October 22, 2014:

If the trigger temperature of 57.5 F/14.2 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 67 ft/min (0.3 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 12294 ft MSL (5536 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 60.0 F/16.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 9043 ft MSL (2285 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 10/23..... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Poor
Wave Soaring Index trend (to 1800 MDT)......... Neutral
Height of stable layer (12-18K ft MSL)......... None
Weak PVA/NVA (through 1800 MDT)................ Neither
Potential height of wave....................... 15382 ft MSL (8624 ft AGL)
Wave soaring outlook for Thursday 10/23........ Poor

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:15:45 / 18:12:06 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 56 min 21 sec (656 min 21 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:43:31 MDT... 39.85 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/22/2014 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 12419 ft MSL (5661 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 12367 ft MSL (5609 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11954 ft MSL (5196 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.7
K index......................... +14.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -62.2 -80.0   230   40   20   3.9   2.1      M     M       M      M    M
 45000  -56.5 -69.7   230   47   24   1.7   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 40000  -54.0 -65.2   220   47   24   1.7   0.9      M     M       M      M    M
 38000  -52.9 -63.2   220   46   24   1.9   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 36000  -51.7 -61.1   220   46   24   1.9   1.1      M     M       M      M    M
 34000  -49.4 -56.9   220   43   22   7.0   3.9      M     M       M      M    M
 32000  -44.6 -48.3   215   36   19   7.0   3.8      M     M       M      M    M
 30000  -39.6 -39.3   215   33   17   9.7   5.3   29.8  85.6    11.0      M    M
 29000  -36.7 -34.1   215   32   17   9.7   5.3   29.8  85.6    11.1      M    M
 28000  -33.8 -28.8   215   32   16   9.6   5.3   29.8  85.7    11.2      M    M
 27000  -31.3 -24.3   215   31   16   6.8   3.7   29.3  84.7    10.9      M    M
 26000  -29.3 -20.7   225   30   15   6.7   3.7   28.1  82.6    10.1      M    M
 25000  -27.3 -17.1   230   29   15   6.7   3.7   27.0  80.7     9.4      M    M
 24000  -25.1 -13.2   240   29   15   8.3   4.5   26.1  79.1     8.7      M    M
 23000  -22.7  -8.9   240   27   14   8.1   4.5   25.5  77.9     8.3      M    M
 22000  -20.3  -4.5   245   26   13   8.1   4.4   25.0  76.9     7.9      M    M
 21000  -17.9  -0.2   250   25   13   7.2   3.9   24.3  75.7     7.4      M    M
 20000  -15.7   3.7   255   23   12   7.2   4.0   23.4  74.0     6.7      M    M
 19500  -14.7   5.5   255   22   12   7.2   4.0   22.9  73.3     6.4      M    M
 19000  -13.6   7.5   260   22   11   7.3   4.0   22.5  72.6     6.1      M    M
 18500  -12.6   9.3   265   21   11   5.7   3.2   22.0  71.6     5.7      M    M
 18000  -11.7  10.9   265   20   10   5.9   3.3   21.4  70.4     5.1      M    M
 17500  -10.9  12.4   270   19   10   5.9   3.3   20.7  69.3     4.5      M    M
 17000  -10.0  14.0   275   19   10   6.0   3.3   20.1  68.1     3.9      M    M
 16500   -9.2  15.4   285   19   10   6.1   3.4   19.5  67.0     3.4      M    M
 16000   -8.2  17.2   290   19   10   7.0   3.9   18.9  66.1     2.9      M    M
 15500   -6.7  19.9   295   20   11   7.3   4.0   18.3  64.9     2.2      M    M
 15000   -5.6  21.9   300   21   11   7.8   4.3   17.9  64.3     1.8      M    M
 14500   -4.5  23.9   305   21   11   7.9   4.3   17.6  63.7     1.5      M    M
 14000   -3.4  25.9   305   20   10   7.6   4.2   17.3  63.1     1.1      M    M
 13500   -2.3  27.9   305   19   10   7.6   4.2   17.0  62.5     0.8      M    M
 13000   -1.2  29.8   310   18    9   8.2   4.5   16.7  62.0     0.4      M    M
 12500   -0.0  32.0   315   17    9   7.8   4.3   16.4  61.5     0.1      M    M
 12000    1.0  33.8   320   16    8   7.5   4.1   16.0  60.8    -0.3    433  2.2
 11750    1.6  34.9   320   15    8   7.6   4.2   15.8  60.5    -0.5    409  2.1
 11500    2.1  35.8   325   15    8   8.0   4.4   15.7  60.2    -0.7    385  2.0
 11250    2.7  36.9   325   15    7   6.5   3.6   15.5  59.9    -0.9    361  1.8
 11000    3.1  37.6   325   14    7   6.6   3.6   15.2  59.4    -1.2    341  1.7
 10750    3.7  38.7   330   14    7   8.1   4.5   15.1  59.1    -1.4    317  1.6
 10500    4.2  39.6   330   13    7   8.2   4.5   14.9  58.9    -1.5    293  1.5
 10250    4.8  40.6   335   13    7   6.4   3.5   14.8  58.6    -1.7    268  1.4
 10000    5.2  41.4   335   12    6   5.5   3.0   14.4  58.0    -2.0    249  1.3
  9750    5.6  42.1   335   12    6   7.1   3.9   14.2  57.6    -2.3    228  1.2
  9500    6.2  43.2   340   11    6   7.5   4.1   14.0  57.2    -2.5    205  1.0
  9250    6.7  44.1   345   11    6   6.3   3.5   13.8  56.9    -2.7    182  0.9
  9000    7.0  44.6   345   11    5   5.2   2.9   13.5  56.3    -3.1    163  0.8
  8750    7.5  45.5   350   10    5   6.8   3.7   13.2  55.7    -3.4    144  0.7
  8500    8.0  46.4   355   10    5   7.5   4.1   13.0  55.4    -3.6    120  0.6
  8250    8.5  47.3   360   10    5   6.0   3.3   12.8  55.0    -3.9     98  0.5
  8000    8.9  48.0   005   10    5   4.4   2.4   12.4  54.4    -4.2     80  0.4
  7750    9.2  48.6   005   10    5   7.4   4.1   12.1  53.8    -4.6     61  0.3
  7500    9.7  49.5   005   10    5   3.4   1.9   11.9  53.5    -4.8     38  0.2
  7250    9.5  49.1   360    8    4  -7.3  -4.0   11.3  52.3    -5.5     38  0.2
  7000    8.8  47.8   355    7    3  -7.6  -4.2   10.4  50.7    -6.4     50  0.3
  6750      M     M     M    M    M     M     M      M     M       M      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           10/22/2014 at 0900 MDT          |       10/22/2014 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +21.0  LI... -0.4               | K index... +18.2  LI... -2.1
CAPE... +81.3  CIN... -46.2                | CAPE... +342.9  CIN... -9.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -61.0 -77.8  245  33 17   3.1   1.7 | -61.3 -78.3  255  30 15   3.3   1.8
 45000 -56.7 -70.1  240  38 20   1.4   0.8 | -56.6 -69.9  255  34 18   1.5   0.8
 40000 -54.6 -66.3  245  34 17   1.4   0.8 | -54.3 -65.7  265  29 15   1.5   0.8
 38000 -53.3 -63.9  245  34 17   2.4   1.3 | -53.0 -63.4  275  30 15   2.4   1.3
 36000 -51.8 -61.2  245  35 18   2.4   1.3 | -51.6 -60.9  285  33 17   2.4   1.3
 34000 -49.4 -56.9  245  35 18   6.7   3.7 | -48.5 -55.3  290  35 18   6.8   3.8
 32000 -44.9 -48.8  240  36 18   6.7   3.7 | -44.4 -47.9  285  35 18   6.8   3.8
 30000 -40.5 -40.9  240  34 17   8.0   4.4 | -39.8 -39.6  280  35 18   8.4   4.6
 29000 -38.1 -36.6  250  31 16   8.0   4.4 | -37.3 -35.1  275  35 18   8.4   4.6
 28000 -35.7 -32.3  255  30 15   8.0   4.4 | -34.8 -30.6  270  35 18   8.4   4.6
 27000 -33.2 -27.8  260  29 15   8.9   4.9 | -32.2 -26.0  270  34 17   8.5   4.6
 26000 -30.5 -22.9  260  29 15   8.9   4.9 | -29.7 -21.5  265  32 17   8.5   4.6
 25000 -27.8 -18.0  260  29 15   8.9   4.9 | -27.1 -16.8  260  31 16   8.5   4.6
 24000 -25.2 -13.4  265  29 15   8.2   4.5 | -24.7 -12.5  260  29 15   7.6   4.2
 23000 -22.7  -8.9  265  28 15   8.3   4.5 | -22.4  -8.3  260  29 15   7.6   4.2
 22000 -20.2  -4.4  270  28 14   8.2   4.5 | -20.1  -4.2  265  29 15   7.6   4.2
 21000 -18.0  -0.4  270  27 14   6.8   3.7 | -18.0  -0.4  265  28 15   6.4   3.5
 20000 -16.0   3.2  265  25 13   6.8   3.7 | -16.1   3.0  265  27 14   6.4   3.5
 19500 -15.0   5.0  265  24 13   6.8   3.7 | -15.2   4.6  265  27 14   6.4   3.5
 19000 -13.9   7.0  265  24 12   6.8   3.7 | -14.3   6.3  265  26 14   6.4   3.5
 18500 -13.0   8.6  265  23 12   6.1   3.3 | -13.4   7.9  265  26 13   5.6   3.1
 18000 -12.1  10.2  265  22 11   6.2   3.4 | -12.6   9.3  260  25 13   5.7   3.1
 17500 -11.2  11.8  265  21 11   6.2   3.4 | -11.7  10.9  265  23 12   6.2   3.4
 17000 -10.4  13.3  270  19 10   6.3   3.4 | -10.8  12.6  270  21 11   6.3   3.5
 16500  -9.5  14.9  280  18  9   6.3   3.5 |  -9.8  14.4  275  19 10   6.6   3.6
 16000  -8.1  17.4  290  17  9   6.4   3.5 |  -8.1  17.4  285  19 10   7.6   4.1
 15500  -7.2  19.0  295  18  9   7.0   3.8 |  -7.0  19.4  290  19 10   7.7   4.2
 15000  -6.0  21.2  300  18  9   7.6   4.2 |  -5.8  21.6  295  19 10   7.8   4.3
 14500  -4.9  23.2  300  18  9   7.6   4.2 |  -4.7  23.5  300  20 10   7.8   4.3
 14000  -3.8  25.2  305  17  9   7.5   4.1 |  -3.6  25.5  300  19 10   7.8   4.3
 13500  -2.7  27.1  305  17  9   7.5   4.1 |  -2.4  27.7  305  19 10   7.8   4.3
 13000  -1.6  29.1  305  16  8   7.8   4.3 |  -1.3  29.7  300  18  9   8.2   4.5
 12500  -0.5  31.1  305  14  7   7.3   4.0 |  -0.1  31.8  300  17  9   7.8   4.3
 12000   0.6  33.1  300  13  7   7.6   4.2 |   1.0  33.8  300  16  8   8.0   4.4
 11750   1.1  34.0  300  12  6   7.4   4.1 |   1.6  34.9  295  15  8   7.8   4.3
 11500   1.6  34.9  300  11  6   7.8   4.3 |   2.1  35.8  295  14  7   8.1   4.5
 11250   2.2  36.0  300  11  5   6.4   3.5 |   2.7  36.9  290  14  7   6.7   3.7
 11000   2.6  36.7  305  10  5   6.1   3.3 |   3.0  37.4  285  12  6   5.6   3.1
 10750   3.1  37.6  305   9  4   7.2   3.9 |   3.4  38.1  280  10  5   6.0   3.3
 10500   3.5  38.3  310   8  4   7.1   3.9 |   3.8  38.8  270   9  5   6.2   3.4
 10250   4.0  39.2  310   7  3   5.9   3.2 |   4.2  39.6  260   8  4   4.7   2.6
 10000   4.3  39.7  325   6  3   5.0   2.8 |   4.4  39.9  245   6  3   5.7   3.1
  9750   4.7  40.5  340   6  3   5.8   3.2 |   5.0  41.0  220   4  2   8.7   4.8
  9500   5.1  41.2  355   6  3   5.8   3.2 |   5.6  42.1  190   4  2   8.8   4.8
  9250   5.5  41.9  005   6  3   5.8   3.2 |   6.2  43.2  170   5  2   8.5   4.6
  9000   5.9  42.6  015   7  3   5.8   3.2 |   6.8  44.2  165   5  3   8.3   4.5
  8750   6.3  43.3  020   7  4   5.9   3.2 |   7.5  45.5  160   5  3  10.1   5.6
  8500   6.8  44.2  025   8  4   6.0   3.3 |   8.3  46.9  155   5  3  11.1   6.1
  8250   7.2  45.0  025   8  4   6.6   3.6 |   9.1  48.4  155   5  3  10.3   5.7
  8000   7.7  45.9  020   8  4   5.9   3.3 |   9.8  49.6  155   5  3  10.2   5.6
  7750   8.1  46.6  015   7  4   8.6   4.7 |  10.6  51.1  150   5  3  10.5   5.8
  7500   8.9  48.0  010   7  4   8.2   4.5 |  11.4  52.5  150   6  3  11.1   6.1
  7250   9.3  48.7  005   6  3   4.3   2.4 |  12.2  54.0  145   6  3  11.3   6.2
  7000   9.6  49.3  005   5  3   7.3   4.0 |  13.1  55.6  145   6  3  11.2   6.1
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           10/22/2014 at 1500 MDT          |       10/22/2014 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +23.6  LI... -1.9               | K index... +28.1  LI... -2.0
CAPE... +263.6  CIN... -5.8                | CAPE... +123.6  CIN... -9.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -62.4 -80.3  270  26 13   3.3   1.8 | -62.6 -80.7  285  22 11   3.5   1.9
 45000 -57.8 -72.0  275  33 17   1.3   0.7 | -58.1 -72.6  305  30 15  -0.1  -0.1
 40000 -55.8 -68.4  290  37 19   1.3   0.7 | -58.3 -72.9  325  61 31   0.2   0.1
 38000 -54.1 -65.4  295  39 20   3.1   1.7 | -55.2 -67.4  325  59 30   5.6   3.1
 36000 -52.3 -62.1  305  42 22   3.1   1.7 | -51.9 -61.4  325  56 29   5.6   3.1
 34000 -48.5 -55.3  305  41 21   8.3   4.5 | -47.6 -53.7  325  52 27   8.3   4.5
 32000 -43.5 -46.3  305  35 18   8.3   4.5 | -42.7 -44.9  320  47 24   8.3   4.5
 30000 -38.7 -37.7  300  33 17   7.8   4.3 | -37.9 -36.2  320  43 22   7.8   4.3
 29000 -36.4 -33.5  295  34 18   7.9   4.3 | -35.6 -32.1  320  42 22   7.8   4.3
 28000 -34.0 -29.2  295  35 18   7.9   4.3 | -33.2 -27.8  320  41 21   7.8   4.3
 27000 -31.6 -24.9  290  35 18   8.1   4.4 | -30.3 -22.5  320  39 20   7.9   4.3
 26000 -29.2 -20.6  290  35 18   8.1   4.5 | -28.0 -18.4  320  38 20   7.9   4.3
 25000 -26.8 -16.2  285  34 17   8.1   4.5 | -25.6 -14.1  315  37 19   7.9   4.3
 24000 -24.4 -11.9  285  33 17   7.6   4.2 | -23.3  -9.9  315  36 18   7.4   4.1
 23000 -22.2  -8.0  285  32 16   7.6   4.2 | -21.2  -6.2  310  34 17   7.5   4.1
 22000 -19.9  -3.8  280  30 16   7.6   4.2 | -19.0  -2.2  305  32 17   7.6   4.2
 21000 -17.8  -0.0  280  30 15   6.7   3.7 | -17.1   1.2  300  30 16   5.7   3.1
 20000 -15.8   3.6  275  30 15   6.7   3.7 | -15.5   4.1  295  29 15   5.7   3.1
 19500 -14.8   5.4  275  30 15   6.7   3.7 | -14.7   5.5  290  28 14   5.7   3.1
 19000 -13.8   7.2  275  30 15   6.8   3.7 | -13.8   7.2  285  28 14   6.1   3.4
 18500 -12.8   9.0  275  30 15   7.0   3.9 | -12.9   8.8  285  28 14   7.1   3.9
 18000 -11.7  10.9  270  29 15   7.0   3.9 | -11.8  10.8  285  28 15   7.0   3.9
 17500 -10.7  12.7  270  28 15   6.9   3.8 | -10.8  12.6  280  28 15   7.2   4.0
 17000  -9.7  14.5  275  28 14   6.9   3.8 |  -9.8  14.4  280  27 14   7.3   4.0
 16500  -8.7  16.3  275  27 14   6.9   3.8 |  -8.7  16.3  275  27 14   7.7   4.2
 16000  -7.2  19.0  275  25 13   7.0   3.8 |  -7.5  18.5  275  25 13   8.1   4.5
 15500  -6.2  20.8  275  24 12   7.0   3.9 |  -6.4  20.5  270  22 12   8.1   4.5
 15000  -5.2  22.6  270  21 11   7.1   3.9 |  -5.2  22.6  270  21 11   7.7   4.3
 14500  -4.1  24.6  265  18  9   7.1   3.9 |  -4.1  24.6  270  19 10   7.8   4.3
 14000  -3.1  26.4  260  16  8   6.7   3.7 |  -3.0  26.6  265  17  9   7.7   4.2
 13500  -2.1  28.2  255  14  7   6.8   3.7 |  -1.3  29.7  265  15  8   7.7   4.2
 13000  -1.1  30.0  255  12  6   7.1   3.9 |  -0.2  31.6  255  13  7   7.7   4.2
 12500  -0.1  31.8  250  11  5   6.0   3.3 |   0.9  33.6  250  11  6   8.0   4.4
 12000   0.8  33.4  240   9  5   7.2   3.9 |   1.9  35.4  240  10  5   6.5   3.6
 11750   1.3  34.3  235   8  4   6.8   3.7 |   2.4  36.3  230   9  5   6.8   3.7
 11500   1.8  35.2  225   7  4   6.9   3.8 |   2.9  37.2  225   9  5   6.6   3.6
 11250   2.3  36.1  215   6  3   7.0   3.8 |   3.4  38.1  215   9  4   5.8   3.2
 11000   2.8  37.0  205   7  3   8.0   4.4 |   3.8  38.8  210   9  4   5.8   3.2
 10750   3.4  38.1  195   7  3   8.5   4.7 |   4.3  39.7  200   9  4   6.4   3.5
 10500   4.0  39.2  185   7  4   8.6   4.7 |   4.7  40.5  195   9  4   6.2   3.4
 10250   4.6  40.3  180   7  4   7.6   4.2 |   5.2  41.4  190   9  5   6.7   3.7
 10000   5.1  41.2  180   8  4   8.2   4.5 |   5.7  42.3  185   9  5   6.9   3.8
  9750   5.8  42.4  175   8  4  10.1   5.5 |   6.2  43.2  180   9  5   6.7   3.7
  9500   6.5  43.7  170   8  4  10.0   5.5 |   6.6  43.9  175   9  5   6.9   3.8
  9250   7.2  45.0  170   8  4   9.5   5.2 |   7.2  45.0  170  10  5   7.4   4.1
  9000   7.9  46.2  170   9  4   9.2   5.1 |   7.7  45.9  170  10  5   7.8   4.3
  8750   8.6  47.5  170   9  4  10.4   5.7 |   8.3  46.9  165  10  5   8.4   4.6
  8500   9.4  48.9  170   9  5  11.0   6.0 |   8.9  48.0  165  10  5   8.8   4.8
  8250  10.2  50.4  165   9  5  10.2   5.6 |   9.6  49.3  160  10  5   8.9   4.9
  8000  11.0  51.8  165   9  5  10.3   5.6 |  10.2  50.4  160  10  5   8.3   4.6
  7750  11.7  53.1  165   9  5   9.5   5.2 |  10.8  51.4  160  10  5  10.5   5.8
  7500  12.4  54.3  165   9  5   9.7   5.3 |  11.6  52.9  160  10  5   6.2   3.4
  7250  13.2  55.8  165   9  5  11.1   6.1 |  11.7  53.1  160   9  4  -0.4  -0.2
  7000  14.0  57.2  165   9  5  10.3   5.7 |  11.8  53.2  160   7  4   4.7   2.6
  6750     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
                   Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.