661
FXUS62 KKEY 011853
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
253 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Persistent easterly flow has helped to encourage the retention of
low to almost mid-level moisture. This push of moisture coupled
with multiple mesoscale boundaries coming together will allow the
current shower activity, and any isolated thunderstorm activity,
to continue into tonight before diminishing slowly into tomorrow.
Guidance provides some confidence as the probability for rainfall
is still around 30 percent tonight, but coming down to 20 percent
for tomorrow morning.

Over the next few days, pulses of enhanced moisture will advect
into the forecast area, but overall chances for rainfall diminish
to a 10 percent chance for tomorrow night and onward. This simply
suggests that we are looking at showers that are more pop-up in
nature rather than a widespread rain shield or elongated squall
line we would see with a frontal boundary. This makes it difficult
to pinpoint exactly where the showers pop-up, but this is just to
say that all of us shouldn`t be surprised if we see a couple of
raindrops at any given time through this forecast period.

Temperatures look similar for each day with afternoon highs in
the mid 80s ,and overnight lows in the mid 70s, until stronger
high pressure settles in by the middle of next week. Some MOS
guidance suggests our warmer locations, such as Marathon, may
approach the 90 degree mark, but we will see this point forecast
change a degree or two as we progress in time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Multiple high pressure systems approaching each other
will lead to an extensive period of easterly breezes that will
fluctuate in moderate intensity. Peaks will occur mainly during
the nighttime hours, with some lulling during the daytime. Due to
the influx of moisture, isolated showers are possible at some
point each day.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Passing wax and waning shower activity could briefly
deteriorate conditions to MVFR CIGS or VIS through the evening. Near
surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  75  84  76  84 /  20  20  10  10
Marathon  75  87  76  87 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...DP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP

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