Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 290902
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
402 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)

Wx map shows a 1023 mb surface high over MS/AL with weak ridging
continuing over the area. Winds are calm at most inland locations
except along the immediate coast where light southerly winds have
returned. Temperatures in the lower to mid 40s continue north of
I-10, upper 40s to lower 50s further south. Some patchy fog noted
across the area, but not expected to become dense or widespread.

An exiting mid to upper level trough over the Eastern half of the
country with a deepening mid to upper level trough over the
Western U.S will keep a mainly zonal flow aloft over our region
through the remainder of Easter Weekend. With no significant upper
level perturbations or deep layer moisture to work with, no
rainfall is expected through Sunday night.

For today, expect a full return of southerly winds with mostly
sunny skies and warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper
70s. For tonight, expect lows in the lower 50s across Central
Louisiana to lower 60s across Southeast Texas. Expect clouds to
increase a bit Saturday and warmer temperatures with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Saturday night, lows mainly in the lower
to mid 60s.

Easter Sunday will see mostly cloudy skies with highs in the
lower to mid 80s. Due to the increasing pressure gradient between
the surface high to the east and developing surface low over the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, expect stronger southerly winds
around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts by afternoon.

08/DML

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)

Global model guidance is in quite good agreement this morning
regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern across the southern
CONUS for next week. Area will start off the week in an already well
established and strengthening moisture/warm air advection regime
between deep layer ridging over the ERN Gulf and an approaching
positively tilted upper trof stretching from the northern Plains to
the Desert SW.  This will yield above normal warmth, with lows of 65
to 70 (10-15 degrees above normal) and highs in the lower to mid 80s
(5-10 degrees above normal) on MON.

The upper trof is progged to advance slowly EWD MON and MON night,
with well above normal low temperatures continuing TUE morning.  As
the trof continues EWD, it will nudge a cold front through the area
during the day TUE, bringing low to mid range (20-40%) rain chances
and west to NW winds that will usher in a cooler and drier airmass
by TUE night. Dry and sunny/clear with temperatures at or below
seasonal normals is expected WED and THU.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)

Some patchy fog may cause intermittent IFR visibilities through
12-13z, and quickly burn off after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR
expected through the period.  Expect southeast to south winds to
increase after 15z around 12-15 kts with gusts over 20-24 kts.
Winds expected to remain southerly around 8-10 kts after 00z.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue through Easter Weekend as surface high
pressure continues to slide east of the region. Expect southerly
winds and seas to increase Sunday night and Monday as the pressure
gradient increases between the surface high to the east and developing
surface low over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Expect low
chances of showers ahead of the next cold front Tuesday, followed
by strong offshore flow Tuesday night.

08/DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  75  60  77  64 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  75  58  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  75  62  78  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08


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