Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
631 FXUS62 KMLB 082017 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 417 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Key Messages: -Near Record High Temperatures through Friday. -Fire Weather Danger Increasing Into Late Week. Currently-Tonight... It`s currently dry and abnormally warm across east central Florida with current temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. When combined with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat index values will make it feel more like the mid 90s to low 100s through this afternoon and early evening. Mostly dry weather is forecast to continue this afternoon with mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. Although, isolated showers and a few lighting strikes are possible (PoPs ~ 15- 20%) across Orange, Seminole, Volusia, Lake, and western Osceola counties with the afternoon sea breeze collision between the east and west coast sea breeze. South winds at 5-10mph have backed onshore along I-95 as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland at around 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph, especially along the coast south of Cape Canaveral late this evening. The dry weather will continue overnight with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Thursday...South to southwest winds will increase with predominate offshore flow into Thursday afternoon with speeds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. The east coast sea breeze will likely only make it to coastal locations with winds backing slightly south-southeast along the coast south of Cape Canaveral. Near to above record highs are forecast with highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast and the mid to upper 90s along and west of I-95 under sunny skies. Dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s and abnormally high temperatures will result in heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Even though heat index values are expected to be below heat advisory criteria, this level of heat for this time of year will affect anyone working outside and/or those in direct sunlight for extended periods of time. Remember to take frequent breaks and stay hydrated, especially if you are spending extend periods outside this afternoon. Friday-Saturday... The mid-upper level ridge will flatten out over the region as it shifts slightly to the southwest by a mid-level trough over the central and eastern US. At the surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will shift to the southeast as a cold front approaches the area on Friday with high pressure building eastward from the west continuing to shift eastward through Saturday. Models are coming into better agreement on timing of the frontal passage as well as the shower and storm chances associated with the front. The front is progged to approach ECFL late Friday afternoon, pushing through Friday overnight into early Saturday morning, finally departing to the south by Saturday afternoon. With PW values around 1.5" or lower, have continued to have PoPs to 20-50 percent. The highest potential for showers and storms will be along and north of the I-4 corridor, starting in the late morning as the front approaches, increasing to highest chances/coverage into the evening, then decreasing after midnight as moisture decreases while the front moves southward. With adequate instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg), and decent temperatures aloft (500mb temperatures around -11C), isolated lightning storms will be possible, and can`t rule out a strong storms or two. Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Sufficient moisture remains along with upper level support for isolated showers and lightning storms Saturday, mainly across the southern half of ECFL. Southwest winds on Friday 10-15 mph in the morning will increase to 15-20 mph by the afternoon. Winds will then veer west to northwest overnight. Northwest winds around 10 mph Saturday morning will increase to 10-15 mph by late morning. Hot conditions expected with well above normal temperatures forecast and plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 90s across the north, and mid to upper 90s across the south, and upper 80s to low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s across the south on Saturday. Overnight lows will be be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Broad, subtle mid- level troughing Saturday becomes zonal Sunday and Monday, then a mid- level low/shortwave will push through the Southeast US mid-week. At the surface, high pressure behind the front will track east across the Southeast through the weekend, keeping the frontal boundary south of us, then depart offshore by Monday. Mostly dry on Sunday before rain chances return to the forecast once again into mid week as the high moves into the western Atlantic, and the southerly to southwesterly flow along the western flank lifts the stalled frontal boundary and associated moisture back north across central Florida. Showers are forecast each afternoon, with PoP 40-60 percent. Depending on how far south the mid-level shortwaves and impulses of energy make it, we could potentially see higher coverage of lightning storms than we`ve had in quite a while towards mid-week. Forecast is now suggesting we`ll stay warmer through the period than previously advertised, with U80-L90s every day, with mid 90s possible across the interior on Wednesday. Overnight lows in the U60- L70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue with high pressure over the western Atlantic remaining in control. Winds are expected to continue to back southeast (except for KLEE) at 10 to 15kts into the late afternoon with the east coast sea breeze pushing inland. VCSH is mentioned at KSFB, KMCO, KISM this afternoon with the sea breeze collision. Winds will increase from the southwest into Thursday afternoon at 10-14kts with gusts up to 18-22kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Currently-Thursday...High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to be the primary influence across east central Florida. Boating conditions are forecast to become poor into this evening. Southeast winds are expected to increase and veer south-southwest overnight at 15-20kts. Seas are expected to build to 2-4ft overnight into Thursday. Friday-Sunday... (Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure across the local area will retreat seaward Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast to reach the local Atlantic waters late Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms possible along and ahead of the front, pushing through the overnight into Saturday morning, and departing to the south Saturday afternoon where it will stall through the rest of the weekend as high pressure fills in behind. Wind continuously changing through most of the period as gradient winds veer from SW-WSW Friday to NW- WNW Saturday behind the front, N-NE on Sunday. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop each afternoon, veering the winds onshore behind the sea breeze. Winds generally 10-15 kts from the early morning through the afternoon, except Friday evenings when wind surges cause speeds to increase to 15-20 kts through most of the overnight. Small craft should exercise caution during these times. Winds generally 5-10 kts after the front passes. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms possible across the Atlantic waters through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 412 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Currently-Thursday... Fire sensitive conditions will increase Thursday with southwest winds at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph and minimum RH values in the mid 30s across the interior west of I-95. Additionally, a High Significant Fire Potential is outlooked to the north of the Treasure Coast Thursday. Friday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through the weekend as Florida generally remains under the influence of high pressure. Min RHs Thursday 30-40 pct inland, but SW winds forecast to remain less than 15 mph. Min RHs as low as 30-40 pct and SW to W winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday ahead of an approaching front will result in a very sensitive fire weather day. Isolated lightning storms will be possible as the front pushes through late Friday into early Saturday, but won`t provide any substantial rainfall. Min RHs inland Saturday behind the front 30-40 pct and Sunday 25-35 pct. Winds decrease to 10-15 mph Saturday and 5- 10 mph Sunday (picking back up to 10-15 mph near the coast with the sea breeze) Sunday, continuing sensitive fire weather conditions, but hopefully remaining below critical conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 96 72 92 / 20 0 0 50 MCO 73 97 74 94 / 20 10 0 30 MLB 73 93 72 93 / 10 10 0 20 VRB 70 94 70 96 / 10 0 0 20 LEE 74 94 74 91 / 10 0 0 40 SFB 73 97 74 94 / 20 10 0 40 ORL 75 97 74 94 / 20 10 0 30 FPR 69 93 69 95 / 10 0 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fehling LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Fehling