576
FXUS65 KPUB 041016
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
416 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost conditions will remain possible this morning over El
  Paso County.

- Cooler conditions will help give a relief to the high fire
  danger today, while scattered showers with isolated
  thunderstorms develop mainly over the mountains.

- Snow chances increase across the Continental Divide Sunday night
  into Monday, with periodic snow chances continuing through
  mid week.

- Increasing winds and fire danger early next week with a trend
  towards cooler and wetter conditions for late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

The cold front which quickly moved across the plains has since moved
well to the south, with any remaining gusty winds staying confined
to the far southeast plains early this morning. Precip across the
southeast plains has also diminished early this morning, however,
stratus has developed. While this stratus may continue to expand
through the early morning hours, think the Frost Advisory across El
Paso County still looks to be on track. Temps fell well into the 30s
even with a stronger wind, and don`t see why they won`t fall or hold
steady especially as winds further drop off. Cloud cover may limit
frost development in some spots, but once again, think the Frost
Advisory is on track and have left it in place at this time.

A return to southwesterly flow is in store today, as an upper level
low moves east across the western CONUS. This will usher in some
weak mid level energy and slight increases in moisture that should
be enough for scattered showers with isolated storms to develop over
the mountains this afternoon. They should stay tied the higher
terrain, but would not be surprised to see a few showers move off
the mountains and into the valleys and adjacent plains. Severe
weather is not expected today though, as instability looks to be on
the weaker side. Additionally, some light snow accums will be
possible for the higher peaks this afternoon into the early evening.
Despite sunny to partly cloudy skies through midday and early
afternoon along with some warming, overall cooler air mass will keep
temps cooler and slightly below normal today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Sunday-Monday...Models remain in good agreement of increasing southwest
flow aloft across the region through the day Sunday, as a strong eastern
Pacific low, currently moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest Coast,
digs across the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This system remains
progged to weaken as it lifts out across the Rockies through the day on
Monday, however, its associated strong mid level (bora) front is progged
to translate across south central Colorado early Monday morning and
continues out across the Eastern Plains through the late morning and early
afternoon.

The progged movement of the this system keeps much of southern Colorado
in the dry and windy portion of the storm, with breezy south to southwest
winds of 20 to 40 mph expected across the region by Sunday afternoon,
strongest over the higher terrain. There could to be some spotty critical
weather conditions across the San Luis Valley on Sunday, however, current
coverage looks to preclude any fire weather highlights attm. Temperatures
warm ahead of the system on Sunday, with highs back to at and above seasonal
levels in the 70s to lower 80s across the Plains, and mainly in the 50s and
60s across the higher terrain.

Increasing moisture and lift ahead of the system moving across the Rockies
Sunday night will develop snow across the Continental Divide, with snow,
heavy at times, and blowing snow likely creating hazardous travel across
the higher mountain passes into Monday morning. While current snow amounts
fall short of advisory levels, later shifts may need to issue some highlights
for the expected snow and blowing associated with the passing bora front.
Further east, will see increasing west to southwest winds ahead of the front
Sunday night, with strong westerly winds of 40 to 60 mph, strongest over and
near the southeast mountains, possible as the bora front translates east early
Monday morning. Will need to keep monitoring later model data with later shifts
possibly issuing High Wind Watches, as well as Fire Weather Watches for areas
where fuels are deemed critical, with very dry air mixing down across the
region on Monday. Temperatures cool behind the bora system on Monday, though
are still around seasonal levels in the 60s to mid 70s across the Plains,
and in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save 30s at the peaks.

Moderate westerly flow continues across the region Tuesday and Wednesday,
keeping mainly dry, save for some showers across the ContDvd, breezy and
warm conditions in place through mid week, with the potential for critical
fire weather conditions, especially across the San Luis Valley.

Cool and unsettled weather remains in the offing for Wednesday night through
the end of the work week, as models continue to indicate a broad upper
trough in place across the Rockies. This will allow for a few fronts to
move across the region, as well as support shower chances, especially over
and near the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

COS and PUB...low VFR to MFVR (bkn030-060) across the terminals
through the early morning hours, as easterly upslope flow
develops behind last nights passing front. VFR conditions to
prevail through the late morning and the rest of the taf period,
with scattered showers developing and remaining over the higher
terrain this afternoon. Breezy east to southeast winds 15-20kts
expected at the terminals this afternoon.

VFR conditions expected at ALS over the next 24 hours, with
breezy south to southwest winds of 15-20kts expected in
the afternoon. Showers to develop over the higher terrain
through the afternoon, with too low a probability of showers
at the terminal to include attm.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW