580
FXUS62 KRAH 150823
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
422 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight.
Another storm system will approach from the southwest Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.

A weak boundary still existed near the NC/SC border early this
morning. In-situ CAD or wedge conditions are in place over much of
central NC where near surface conditions are stable. Radar showed
showers/storms along and west of the Mountains and over portions of
SC where there continued to be instability. Models suggest that the
first chance of showers/elevated thunderstorms will be this morning
as the current activity, partly driven by the upstream vorticity
maximum over the TN valley, reaches our region. The low level
stability will keep the storms in the general thunder category this
morning.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms... some potentially
severe thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon and early
evening. The main hazards will likely be wind and hail.

The mid/upper level trough is expected to move east across the
region during peak heating this afternoon/early evening. A weak
surface low pressure is expected to form along the returning warm
front into central NC. The low stratus and fog should burn off,
first in the warm sector over western and southern sections late
morning, then elsewhere by early afternoon. The approach of the
trough and surface heating will provide the lift necessary for
thunderstorm development in the warm sector first, possibly by late
morning according to the CAMS across portions of the Sandhills and
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. This activity is expected to
become strong to locally severe this afternoon as SBCAPES reach into
the 1500 j/kg range (temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew
points in the lower to mid 60s). Winds are forecast to increase
aloft with the approach of the trough with 30-40kt of shear expected
in the warm sector. Also, forecast hodographs support wind and hail
being the primary severe threats.

In addition, although flash flooding is not expected to be
widespread, merging storms may pose more of a flash flood threat
given the wetter grounds after 1-3 inches of rain fell in the past
24 hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish through the evening, with
some stratus and fog again late tonight. Lows in the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

A drier day is expected in the rear of the departing mid/upper
trough Thursday. Expect mostly sunny conditions with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
As of 425 AM Wednesday...

A upper level ridge will  move across the region over the first half
of the weekend ahead of an upper level trough that will move east
across the TN valley into the Mid-Atlantic region early next week.
As the next storm system moves across the central Plains early
Friday, showers and storms are expected to move in west to east
beginning as early as Friday afternoon. Friday night through
Saturday night expect scattered to numerous storms with the
potential for some isolated severe storms moving across the region.
WPC has all of Central NC in the D5 ERO for a marginal risk of heavy
rainfall. The nest chance for storms and heavy rain will be in the
afternoon and evening hours Saturday as the low pressure moves
across our region. By Sunday morning, the low is expected to be
slowly shifting offshore and only a slight chance of rain is
expected across the region. High pressure will build in from the
north Monday but will not last very long as the next low pressure
moves across the MS valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region by late
Tuesday. Thus, another round of storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening, especially across the NW Piedmont.
Temperatures will range from above average on Friday with highs in
the low to mid 80s, then flip to below normal for the weekend and
early next week with highs in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM Wednesday...

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to overspread much of central NC
overnight and linger through 12z-15z. Sites will slowly lift to MVFR
and then VFR through early Wednesday afternoon (although KINT/KGSO
could hang on to MVFR ceilings a bit longer). Additional scattered
showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and may
induce brief flight restrictions at all terminals.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected Wednesday evening
after the scattered thunderstorms diminish late. Then some sub-VFR
conditions with stratus/fog will be possible between 06z-12z/Thu.
VFR conditions are expected Thursday. Showers and sub-VFR conditions
will return late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Badgett