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125
FXUS62 KRAH 020537
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep high pressure will build over the Carolinas and Southeast
states through Friday, resulting in very warm temperatures. A series
of weak upper level disturbances will move through the region Friday
evening through Sunday, bringing periods of unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 135 AM Thursday...

Only cosmetic changes needed to today`s forecast. Still expect
patchy to areas of fog to develop over the Coastal Plain early this
morning, in an area that saw ground-wetting showers/storms yesterday
and where dewpoint depressions are lower. The latest surface
analysis shows a very diffuse pressure pattern over the region, with
weak ridging to our W and E and a very weak and subtle low level
trough between, more evident at 925-850 mb, separating dewpoints in
the mid 50s to near 60 over the W Piedmont from the low-mid 60s over
the far E Piedmont, Sandhills, and Coastal Plain. Observed mid level
trends noted on 00z UA analyses support model progs of building
ridging aloft over the Carolinas, including drying and sinking mid
levels in conjunction with decreasing PW over the area. With a dry
column and neutral to sinking air, clouds will be few and far
between today, limited to high-based flat convective clouds, mostly
scattered except more numerous near an expected inland-moving sea
breeze in the mid-late afternoon. This strong heating will allow
temps to reach well into the upper 80s to around 90, with low level
thicknesses nearly 25 m above normal. Expect generally clear skies
tonight, with only light fog expected in the far SE due to slightly
higher dewpoint depressions (due to slightly warmer temps) and a
slight stirring with a very light SE breeze overnight. Lows will be
just a bit higher than this morning, 60-65. -GIH
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&&

.SHORT TERM / /...
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As of 220 PM Wednesday...

To be updated shortly.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Strong upper level ridge will influence the region Friday before
moving offshore early Saturday. A series of shortwaves will move
across the region early next week. At the surface, high pressure
will influence the Mid-Atlantic region. Light calm winds with mostly
sunny skies will set up for warm day Friday with highs well above
average in the mid to upper 80s both days. By Saturday morning
confidence in the forecast becomes better than it has in the past
few days. Latest data shows by Saturday morning increased moisture
values of 1.5+ ahead of a cold front moving across the TN and OH
valley. As the front moves into the region it will bring isolated to
scattered showers and storms to the area Saturday and again Sunday.
The cold front will move across the region Sunday before stalling
across the region on Monday. Less coverage is expected on Monday but
depending where the front stalls, isolated to scattered showers and
storms could be possible especially in the afternoon with daytime
heating. The stalled front is expected to dissipate and most of
Tuesday is expected to be dry, but multiple long range models show
another round of showers and storms developing by late afternoon
Tuesday ahead of another frontal passage moving across the Southern
Plains and Southeast.

Temperatures over the weekend will largely depend on timing and
coverage of the precipitation, but generally expect highs in the
upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Temperatures are expected to increase through the week with highs 10
to 15 degrees above average by Wednesday. Most of the region will
see upper 80s to low 90s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Thursday...

A period of MVFR to IFR vsbys in fog is expected at FAY/RWI early
this morning, mainly 07z-13z, given the combination of high RH, weak
winds, and clear skies. Fog is also possible near RDU during this
time window, but confidence is lower there, and it may manifest into
just shallow dense ground fog over bodies of water. INT/GSO should
remain fog-free this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely
areawide from mid morning through tonight, with weak high pressure
at the surface and stronger high pressure building in aloft, keeping
cloud cover minimal. Surface winds will stay light, under 10 kts.

Looking beyond 06z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to hold through
Fri, although mid/high clouds will gradually increase from the west
as the high pressure ridge aloft gets pushed to our east by incoming
upper level waves moving in from the W and SW. The chance for sub-
VFR conditions within scattered to numerous showers and storms will
increase starting Fri night, lasting through Mon, as a series of
disturbances passes over the region. Areas of early-morning fog are
also expected. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield