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000
FXUS65 KREV 110855
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
155 AM PDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and dry weather for today with a slight chance of afternoon
showers for Mono, Mineral, and western Lassen counties. A low
pressure system will provide periods of gusty winds, rain and
mountain snow, and cooler temperatures Friday and over the
weekend. Expect some travel and recreation impacts over the
weekend. Cool, unsettled weather will continue into early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today will be an excellent day to get outdoors and enjoy the warm
spring-like temperatures. We`re looking at highs roughly upwards
of 10-15 degrees above average for mid-April. Reno still has a 50%
chance of reaching the 80 degree mark (Average KRNO temperature
is 63 degrees). For the most part, temperatures for western NV and
eastern Lassen will be in the mid-70s while most eastern Sierra
communities will see mid-60s. There still remains a slight 15-25%
chance for some showers in Mono-Mineral counties as well as a
slight 15% chance of a stray shower in western Lassen County.
Overall amounts with these will be light. West to southwesterly
winds across the Sierra will start to increase through the day in
response to increasing 700mb flow with our next system. Gusts
along exposed ridges in the Sierra will range from 40-60 mph by
the afternoon, with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph in most northeast
CA and far western NV valleys.

All good things must come to an end, and in terms of the weather
pattern we`re making a return to early spring/late winter
conditions. Yay, just in time for the weekend! Looking at the
synoptic pattern over the weekend, model ensembles dig a deep
cutoff upper low off the CA coast through Saturday. This low then
opens up and moves east into AZ/NM through Monday. Areas of
showers and higher elevation snowfall, breezy winds, and lower
temperatures will persist through most of the weekend. So let`s
outline the weekend impacts below.

* Liquid Totals: Amounts are mostly unchanged much from the prior
  guidance. For three day totals, mostly all of western Lassen,
  the greater Lake Tahoe area, as well as into Mono County along
  and west of US-395 have a likely (>60%) chance for at least
  0.25" of liquid. But these same areas have just a 20-40% chance
  for at 1.00" of liquid. Many areas throughout eastern Lassen,
  far western NV, along with the inner NV ranges have around a
  20-50% chance for at least 0.25".

* Snowfall: When it`s all said and done, snowfall totals will be
  greatest along the Sierra crests. Latest totals have 4-12" along
  all the crests, 1-3" at lake level in Tahoe, and 1-4" along
  US-395 in Mono County. Western NV foothills range from a Trace
  to a few inches of snow while the inner NV ranges have between
  1-4". There is a 20-40% chance of 6+" of snowfall from Friday
  through Sunday for Alpine and Mono counties. Meanwhile, ridges
  around and north of the Tahoe Basin have a 5-10% of the same
  amount. Lower elevation Sierra communities (i.e. Truckee, South
  Lake Tahoe, Bridgeport, Mammoth Lakes, etc.) will likely see
  1-3" of snowfall through Sunday. Snow levels will begin above
  8,000 ft. at the onset of showers before falling to near 5,000
  ft. by Sunday.

* There are still a few caveats with rain and snowfall
  accumulation. 1) Chances of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday
  afternoon (15-30%) 2) The potential for frontogenetical banding
  Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Should these occur,
  locally greater rain and snowfall totals are likely.

* Winds: Strong southwest winds along the Sierra ridges will
  persist all weekend. Gusts upwards of 60-80 mph are conceivable
  this weekend. As for the valleys and the inner basins and
  ranges, the strongest winds will be on Saturday. This is
  especially the case for Mineral and western Churchill counties
  where gusts could be upwards of 40-60 mph.

From Monday through the end of the 7-day period next Thursday,
ensembles are showing a long wave trough pattern over the western
US. Temperatures will be near normal on Monday, but mostly below
normal Tuesday onward.
-McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

Excellent flying conditions today. Although WSW afternoon breezes
will increase near 15 kts for the Sierra terminals and between
15-20 kts for western NV terminals after 21z Thu. A 10% chance
for showers exists Thursday south of US-50 as well.

Our next storm arrives Friday and will continue through the
weekend with gusty S/SW winds on Friday, turning S/SE Saturday.
This will increase the chances for LLWS and mountain waves
during this time frame. Also, gusts upwards of 15-25 kts are
possible for Sierra terminals while western NV terminal can see
gusts between 25-35 kts. There will be a 10-30% chance for
thunderstorms Friday-Saturday, with more widespread shower
coverage both days as well.
- McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$