Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 252328
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
328 PM AKDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly flow will persist over northern Alaska to start the work
week. With this pattern, above normal temperatures and dry
conditions will persist initially for the central and eastern
Interior, while the west coast and western Interior will see
above normal temperatures and a mixed bag of precipitation. Winds
across the North Slope will increase late Tuesday, bringing
blowing snow through Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 498 dam low is currently centered near St.
Matthew Island with a ridge centered over northwest Canada. As a
result, southerly flow in place across the forecast area. This
general pattern looks to remain in place through much of the week;
however, shortwave will move northward across the eastern
Interior Wednesday into Thursday. As we go into the weekend, a
shift in the pattern is expected as a ridge builds over the gulf
of Alaska, and southwesterly flow develops over much of the
forecast area.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Satellite imagery shows a quite a bit of cloud cover this
afternoon. This will likely result in high temperatures this
afternoon being a bit lower than yesterday in many spots; however,
still well above normal. High temperatures in the upper 40s to
lower 50s will continue for Tuesday for the southern Interior
with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s for the northern
Interior. A cooling trend is expected for Wednesday and Thursday;
however, despite the cooldown temperatures will still be above
normal. No precipitation is expected south of the Yukon River
through late Wednesday. There is a chance for some light snow
north of the Yukon River tonight into early Tuesday; however, any
accumulation will be minimal, generally less than one inch. A
shortwave moving to the north will bring some chances for some
light precipitation; however, there is still some uncertainty
about the details.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Active weather continue to for the west coast. Strong northerly
winds continue to bring blizzard conditions to the Bering Strait
coast and St. Lawrence Island. Winds should decrease in the Bering
Strait by late tonight. The ongoing Warning for this area looks to
be in good shape. Aside from this a mixture of rain and snow will
continue into Tuesday (rain/snow mix south of the Seward
peninsula and snow to the north). Up to two inches of snow is
expected through Tuesday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Light snow is expected to continue tonight into Tuesday with up to
two inches of accumulation. Breezy winds will continue tonight for
the far eastern and western ends of the Arctic Coast. Winds will
pick up again on Tuesday night and Wednesday, bringing blowing
snow with poor visibility to most of the coast. Another round of
light snowfall is expected late Thursday into Friday as another
shortwave moves north into the north over the eastern Brooks Range
and North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...
A change in the pattern is expected for late this week and this
weekend. A pair of systems coming up through the Bering will
spread precipitation well into the Interior. There is still
uncertainty in the exact details; however, we will have to watch
these systems as it appears the systems are brining in a lot of
moisture.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814-815.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ804.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$


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