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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171845
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front brings isolated rain and storms to the area late
this evening. A weak cold front pushes through Thursday before a
stronger front moves in on Friday resulting in another chance
of rain. Warm temperatures continue through the remainder of the
week before cooling down this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

Current analysis shows a pair of upper lows across the north-central
corridor of the CONUS, with a high amplitude ridge stretching
from the Ohio River Valley into the Hudson Bay area of Canada.
Surface high pressure continues to push well offshore. Locally,
a warm front is lifting back northward through the area. Skies
have been partly to mostly cloudy for the first half of the day
today, with more mid to high clouds streaming in from the west.
Locations like Salisbury and Ocean City have held onto low
clouds for the entire day so far, with guidance continuing show
those low clouds lingering into tonight. Current temperatures
are in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees south of the warm
front, which is roughly just south of I-64 as of this writing.
To the north, temperatures are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As
the front lifts north of our the CWA by late this afternoon,
expect high temperatures to keep warming for the entire area.
Highs are expected to top out in the upper 70s to 80 north, and
low to mid 80s south.

Hi-res guidance isn`t showing much in the way of excitement
regarding evening storm chances later and is trending drier. Some
isolated showers and storms are still likely late this evening and
into the early overnight hours, with the highest confidence being
across the north and over into the Eastern Shore. SPC briefly
had the northern fourth of the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe
weather for a damaging wind threat, but has since taken us back
to a General Thunder outlook. Still can`t rule out a gust to
40mph or so in any cell that does develop later today. Rain
chances come to an end during the early morning hours. Skies may
try to break towards sunrise, with the exception of perhaps the
Eastern Shore. Lows tonight remain mild, only getting down to
around 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A weak cold front will move through on Thursday giving way to a
mostly dry day. Western areas will be mostly sunny with eastern
areas seeing partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be well-above
normal with highs reaching the mid 80s inland and mid 70s closer to
the coast. A backdoor cold front will attempt to push into part of
the area Thursday night into early Friday. This will bring in more
cloud cover across the east. Low temperatures Thursday night will be
in the upper 40s across the Eastern Shore and northern locations,
with lower 50s elsewhere. The backdoor front will retreat as a
stronger cold front approaches from the northwest during the day on
Friday. Rain chances will return with this front, though not until
later Friday afternoon. Rain will be scattered at first before
increasing in coverage a bit more after ~8pm. Any chances for
thunderstorms will likely be focused across the west/southwest
portion of the CWA since the backdoor cold front will be retreating
across the east. All of that being said, this is not looking like a
major rain event, or even moderate rain for that matter. QPF
forecasts are showing barely .10-.20" in a few spots, though that
may even be a stretch. High temperatures Friday will be in the 60s
across the Eastern Shore and far northeast behind the backdoor
front, with upper 70s to near 80s inland. Lingering showers will be
likely into Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday...

A secondary front will push in on Saturday. There could be some
lingering shower activity across the far east during the first half
of the day before the boundary moves through. Drier air will rush in
behind the front resulting in a mostly clear end to the day, except
for the far SE CWA. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the low 70s
inland. The stronger shot of CAA arrives Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s. The change will
be most noticeable in the high temperatures starting Sunday
though as the current forecast has mid 60s inland with lower 60s
along the coast both Sunday and Monday. Models agree slightly
better about a southern stream low pressure system moving out of
the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas Sunday night into
Monday. This means that rain chances will return to start the
new week. Exact details will be worked out closer to time, but
the best chance for rain currently looks to be south of
Richmond. Temperatures may start to warm back up behind this
system. &&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at most
terminals. The exception continues to be SBY where lower CIGs of
OVC025 are lingering. Guidance shows those low CIGs, if not lower
into IFR category, persisting at SBY into the evening hours.
Elsewhere, expect periods of SCT-BKN040-060 with a prevailing
SCT150-200 deck. Threat for scattered RA/TSRA is still possible
after 18/00Z. Think SBY and PHF/ORF have the best chance for
rain as of now. Confidence is lower for RIC and ECG. Any
stronger cell could produce gusty, erratic winds. Rain chances
end from west to east late tonight, moving offshore by ~08Z.
CIGs will improve for most terminals on Thursday, though SBY is
a bit questionable at the moment. Expecting dry conditions
Thursday.

Outlook: Clouds move back in Thursday night into Friday. CIGs may be
lower at SBY and eastern locations as a backdoor front pushes
through. Stronger cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday
bringing rain chances in for the afternoon and evening.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Afternoon analysis shows low pressure over Wisconsin with an
associated cold front extending SE then S across the Ohio Valley.
High pressure has moved well off the Southeast coast. A warm front
has lifted NE across the waters today with winds generally from the
S or SE 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with seas 2-3 ft.

Generally quiet marine conditions continue late this afternoon into
the first half of Thursday. A back door cold front is forecast to
drop from NE to SW Thursday afternoon into the evening. Winds become
N then NW behind the front but are expected to remain below SCA
thresholds. A series of fronts will move through the region Friday
into Saturday. The back door front returns north ahead of a stronger
cold front set to cross the waters early Saturday. N winds will
follow the second front but still below SCA levels. Seas may build
to 4-5 ft for the coastal waters N of Parramore Island Thursday
night into early Friday but with low confidence regarding the
magnitude and exact timing.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JKP
NEAR TERM...JKP
SHORT TERM...JKP
LONG TERM...JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...TMG/MRD