109
FXUS61 KALY 170210
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1010 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns to the region through Friday as high
pressure builds in. Additional chances for rain showers arrive
Friday night into Saturday, more likely for areas west of the
Hudson. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Clearing has taken place rather quickly this evening,
so have adjusted cloud cover downward. Also expanded mention of
patchy fog due to the more substantial clearing and relatively
moist low levels. Temperatures have cooled into the 50s to
around 60 later this evening.

.PREV DISCUSSION[0647]...Radar showing some residual light
showers or sprinkles for some areas south/east of Albany. Most
of these are likely not producing measurable rainfall, so will
just mention slight/low chance PoPs for the next few hours. The
showers should dissipate this evening as the coastal cyclone
shifts farther south away from our area. Satellite imagery
reveals some clearing in the Mohawk Valley/Capital District,
with mainly mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. Temperatures are in
the 60s to around 70 early this evening.

As the coastal system drifts into the North Atlantic, ridging
will build in to its west, yielding a drying and clearing trend
across the region this evening through tonight. Temperatures
will be seasonable, with early morning lows in the upper 40s in
high terrain to mid 50s at lower elevations. Patchy fog may
develop overnight, particularly in sheltered valleys west of the
Hudson where more widespread clearing is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the coastal low continues to pull away into the North
Atlantic, brief weak ridging builds into the region, bringing a
period of dry weather beneath partly cloudy skies through the
day on Friday. As 850 hPa temperatures reach nearly 10C,
surface temperatures rise some 5-10 degrees above normal to
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s in high terrain to
mid 70s to near 80 at lower elevations.

By Friday evening, an upper-level shortwave will approach from
the west, lifting across the North Country and into northern
New England by Saturday morning. Increasing clouds from west to
east will precede its passage, with isolated to scattered rain
showers reaching into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley
Friday evening and night. Temperatures remain seasonably mild,
reaching overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
region.

Scattered showers may continue through Saturday, particularly
west of the Hudson as well as in the southern Greens. Mostly
cloudy skies trend clearer by Saturday evening, with showers
diminishing by sunset as the upper shortwave exits eastward
toward the Canadian Maritimes while ridging builds overhead
through early Sunday morning. Temperatures remain pleasant and
seasonable, reaching afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s in
high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, and falling
to overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A Rex Block pattern looks to set up Sunday through Tuesday with
upper level high pressure overhead with an upper level low
across the Southeast US. Surface high pressure sets up along the
East Coast and will result in a period of mostly dry weather.
The exception could be for some very isolated showers across
some higher terrain areas. Temperatures will run above normal
with highs mainly in the 70s each day with some lower 80s across
the valleys on Monday and Tuesday.

The Rex Block begins to break down by Wednesday as an upper-
level trough and surface cold front approach from the west.
Timing of this front remains a bit uncertain but looks to push
through during Wednesday night into early Thursday. This looks
to bring our next best chance for some showers and a few
thunderstorms as guidance suggests some weak instability could
be in place.

Forecast confidence begins to decrease for later in the week
with either flat ridging or upper-level troughing overhead. For
now, will run with the NBM for Thursday which places chance POPs
across the region. Thursday would also turn out slightly cooler
after the cold frontal passage with highs in the 60s/70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00z Saturday...Conditions have improved to VFR at all
TAF sites early this evening, although there are still mainly
BKN cigs in place. Clouds should tend to gradually decrease
tonight, except for patchy mid level clouds from time to time.
Should more persistent breaks in the clouds occur overnight,
there is a window for some fog development given dewpoints in
the 50s. This is a conditional threat, so forecast confidence
is low. For now will mention TEMPO for MVFR vsby at KGFL/KPSF
and also KPOU, which had some rainfall today. Will continue to
monitor trends, with a low probability of IFR conditions if
persistent fog is able to develop.

Once any fog dissipates, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
on Friday, with occasional SCT-BKN mid level clouds.

Winds will be variable around 5 kt or less through Friday
morning, then becoming east-southeast around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard/JPV
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...NAS/JPV