Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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422 FXUS63 KAPX 091442 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1042 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures tonight and Saturday night lead to possible patchy frost concerns for interior locations. - Occasional chance for rain showers over the next several days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1042 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Little changes to the inherited forecast thus far. Some pesky fog in and around Grand Traverse Bay has lifted in the last couple hours, leaving much of the area under some lingering low level stratus across portions of northern lower, with some altocu elsewhere (clearer skies noted closer to Saginaw Bay and into the eastern U.P.). Expectation is that enough diurnal heating should be able to generate fair weather cumulus amid a veil of cirrus clouds for most as the most widespread synoptic rain coverage holds to the south in conjunction with the passing mid level wave (with stalled frontal boundary largely draped over the I-70 corridor from IL to PA). Just enough low level moisture remains across the SW CWA to perhaps generate some shallow diurnal showers after 18z. With instability largely holding below -10C, probably would be akin to winning the lottery if folks south of Grand Traverse Bay hear thunder this afternoon. Expectation is for the wave to clear to our east by the evening hours, while high pressure near Hudson Bay begins to flex its influences and we gradually scour out clouds later this afternoon into the evening, likely allowing for radiational cooling processes to commence if winds can decouple enough. See the attached short term forecast for more details. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this morning, northeast to southeast oriented upper-level trough axis draped from Newfoundland southwestward all the way across the northern Great Lakes/central Plains into the Four Corners region. This sandwiched between weak subtropical ridging across the southeast states and shortwave ridging from British Columbia into the Canadian Prairies. That trough axis gradually sags south over the next 24 hours...centering overhead this evening and farther south overnight. Surface low pressure currently near the IL/IN/KY border will shift off to the east this morning with a weaker surface reflection progged to slide across the upper MS Valley and the southern Great Lakes in the day ahead. By tonight, higher surface pressure trickle in locally from the north. Forecast Details: Latest trends over the past 24 hours have continued a steady southward trend to rain chances today with current confidence favoring the bulk of shower activity remaining over northern IL and far southern MI. The exception lies across far northwest lower this afternoon, generally near and south of Grand Traverse Bay where isolated to scattered shower development appears pretty likely. A rumble of thunder or two not of the question in this activity with up to 250 J/kg MLCAPE, but not anticipating anything severe. Most likely time frame for this to occur generally between 18-00z. Perhaps a few sprinkles or a rogue shower up near the Straits during this time frame as well, but chances are so low that won`t be reflected in the forecast. Any lingering shower chances diminish after sunset with a lower than desired low temperature forecast for the night ahead. Uncertainty largely focused around cloud cover with at least some clearing anticipated, but also around our ability to decouple. Think we should be able to muster at least a few hours with calm winds overnight, which combined with partially clearing skies should allow temperatures to efficiently cool. Question is whether interior areas become cold enough for potential frost development, and if so, what duration are temps sub 35-36 degrees. All in all, won`t deviate too far from the inherited low temp forecast...maybe even a degree or two colder in spots. Despite the uncertainty, it`s one of those nights where it`s worth taking precautions for sensitive vegetation with the highest likelihood for patchy frost across the typically colder/interior areas from Pellston down the spin of northern lower MI, including places like Atlanta, Grayling and Roscommon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: An upper-level low tracks near or just south of southwest northern lower Michigan spreading rain shower chances across the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Moisture advection and more energy tracking overhead Sunday into mid-next week will result in the chance for rain showers once again. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Cool temperatures Thursday night and Saturday night lead to possible patchy frost concerns for interior locations: As high pressure builds overhead and heights rise into Friday morning, clouds will clear, and radiational cooling could lead to possible patchy frost across interior portions of the CWA. The main questions continue to be if the clouds clear enough and if winds will be relatively calm enough to promote this concern. Temperatures will continue to be cooler through Saturday night, continuing the possibility for interior locations to have patchy frost Saturday night into Sunday morning. For now, continued with values between 35 and 37 degrees, but will continue to monitor this potential closely. Stay tuned! - Occasional chance for rain showers over the next several days: Friday night into Sunday could have some rain showers possible as an upper-level low tracks near the region. Guidance continues to agree that this should remain a minor event with little to no meaningful impacts. Showers could linger into Saturday afternoon, but another high pressure builds overhead, promoting clearing and also a warming trend in temperatures heading into Sunday. Winds will shift more southerly heading into next week, bringing in a flux of moisture to the region and more chances for rain showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder or two, as we look into mid-next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 631 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Any patchy/locally dense fog should burn off pretty quickly this morning with flight conditions expected to be VFR through the TAF period. Perhaps a shower or isolated thunderstorm at MBL/TVC this afternoon with otherwise dry conditions. Northeast winds today, occasionally breezy at times, becoming light tonight -- potentially calm for a period after midnight. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...HAD SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM...NSC AVIATION...MJG