Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
435 FNUS73 KAPX 060807 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for Green Timbers East...MIDNR National Weather Service Gaylord MI 407 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on May 06. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Some wisps of high clouds this morning; otherwise, sun-filled skies at the burn site today. Efficient warming/mixing this afternoon with high temperatures in the low 70s and RHs falling to near-critical levels. Calm winds this morning turn east-southeast for the afternoon, generally below 10 mph. Inland penetrating lake breezes are expected this afternoon -- off of both Lake Michigan and Huron. While confidence is low, potential exists for these boundaries to collide over central/northern Otsego County late in the afternoon. If this occurs, chaotic wind shifts can be expected at the burn site with winds temporarily taking on a northerly component before turning back southeast again this evening as any lake influence diminishes. Good RH recovery tonight as temperatures cool back into the 30s. Increasing clouds expected Tuesday with shower/storm chances arriving late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Max temperature.....Around 73. Min humidity........25 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon becoming light. Transport winds.....East 6 to 7 mph shifting to the south late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......4000-5300 ft AGL increasing to 6000-6500 ft AGL in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (274.0-450.0). TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........0 1 3 4 4 4 4 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ Temp............63 66 68 69 71 73 73 RH..............38 33 31 28 27 25 26 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..5 5 6 5 3 2 1 20 ft wind gust.6 8 8 8 7 7 7 Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.4 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.E E E SE S S S Transp wind spd.7 6 6 6 7 7 6 Vrate kt-ft.....274 306 346 364 445 450 368 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR FR FR PR .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost early in the morning. Min temperature.....Around 37. Max humidity........82 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 6 to 7 mph in the evening, then becoming light late in the evening. Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 10 mph. Mixing height.......5100-6300 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1000 ft AGL early in the evening. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (27.0-436.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........3 2 1 3 5 8 9 11 12 11 10 8 Weather cov..... ARS Weather type.... FST Tstm cov........ Temp............71 69 66 61 56 51 47 44 42 39 38 37 RH..............29 32 37 42 51 59 65 73 76 82 82 82 20 ft wind dir..E E E E E E SE SE SE S S S 20 ft wind spd..9 9 9 8 8 8 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 ft wind gust.16 16 16 14 14 14 6 6 6 5 5 5 Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 5.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.E E E E SE SE SE SE S SE S S Transp wind spd.7 7 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 Vrate kt-ft.....436 350 101 57 56 39 32 29 28 28 27 28 Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 70. Min humidity........31 percent. 20-foot winds.......Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 15 mph increasing to 20 to 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2800-4400 ft AGL late in the morning. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor (26.0) increasing to fair to good (552.0-982.0) late in the morning. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........12 19 6 15 39 67 Weather cov..... Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ Temp............38 45 58 64 68 68 RH..............79 68 44 35 31 33 20 ft wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE 20 ft wind spd..5 5 12 13 13 13 20 ft wind gust.9 9 17 18 18 20 Mix hgt (ft)....300 500 2000 3300 4300 4300 Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 Transport wind..SE 8 SE 10 SE 20 SE 21 SE 22 SE 22 Vrate kt-ft.....26 47 391 686 935 951 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD $$ Forecaster...MJG Requested by...Jeff Vasher Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413223.0/APX .DELDT 05/06/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov