Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
451 FXUS61 KBGM 080600 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 200 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is expected late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 935 PM update... Again, the main change with this forecast was to the temperatures and dew points. Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have fallen a bit since the last update, now in the 50s and 60s. Cloud cover will increase from the west over the next few hours and that should slow down the cooling. Slight adjustments were made to PoPs based on some of the 00z guidance that has come in. Otherwise, we are awaiting the showers that are slowly creeping through western NY and PA. Models continue to show some limited instability, though elevated, so low chances for thunder were kept in the forecast. 630 PM update... Conditions are a bit drier than expected as dew points are low. Temperatures are still mild though, leading up to a pleasant evening. Minor changes were made to temperatures, though slightly more changes were needed for dew points. Sky cover was also touched up as a layer of high clouds are moving through the area. As for the rest of the forecast, it all was doing well and needed no additional changes. 230 PM update... Sunny skies with a pocket of dry air moving through aloft evident in water vapor imagery has caused dew points to fall with day time mixing. Winds are fairly light but relative humidities have fallen to around 30 percent for much of the region. Deeper moisture is trying to make its way in from central PA so NEPA is fairing a bit better with RH this afternoon. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings do get up near 1000 J/kg of elevated CAPE and with 50 knots of 0-6 km shear, there is a small threat for some hail though hail size overnight should stay sub severe with CAPE being skinny. Tomorrow is looking a bit more interesting as there is a weak elevated mixed layer moving through in the morning to early afternoon where mid level lapse rates get up over 7 C/km with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots associated with a jet streak moving overhead. Some of the CAMs do get to have over 1000 J/km of surface based CAPE in the afternoon with little capping. Despite there being good lapse rates and weakly capped surface based CAPE is the lack of a trigger at the time we have the ingredients in place for severe storms. There is a 500 mb vorticity wave moving through northern NY so right now the NY thruway corridor has the best chance at seeing a stronger storm in the afternoon with large hail and wind being the main threat if a storm can get going. Decided to keep at least a slight chance of thunderstorms in the grids for tomorrow afternoon as any outflow from storms farther away could trigger storms to develop later in the day despite no mid level triggers. Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower levels of the atmosphere. With stronger boundary layer winds, temperatures were not lowered below model guidance yet but if there can be some decoupling, good radiational cooling will cause temperatures to fall below forecasted values. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure will track eastward from the Ohio Valley to the east coast Thursday and Thursday night. Enough lift and moisture will overrun a warm front to result in the development of showers. The coverage of showers is actually a bit more uncertain and will depend on how convection evolves over the next couple of days. Some of the modeling is trending south with this 12Z cycle. That is an entirely plausible outcome with convection involved. Still the bulk of ensemble data shows about half an inch of QPF with locally higher amounts in NE PA and the Southern Tier of NY. Clouds and showers will likely keep temperatures in the 60`s during the day then only fall into the 50`s at night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The previously mentioned low pressure system looks to linger on Friday keeping some showers around. A broad mid-level trough will continue to be over the region with several additional weak cold fronts and disturbances to keep some chances of showers around most days with the highest chances this weekend. Chilly as well with lows in the 40`s and highs getting into the 50`s/60`s. Actual timing of the disturbances is still highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions prevail, with plenty of high clouds across the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with an upper level disturbance and surface trough are moving into western NY and PA. 06Z HREF members and subsequent HRRR runs suggest the bulk of the showers will attempt to avoid ITH/ELM/BGM, but radar trends show increasing thunderstorms upstream over far SW NY and NW PA. So, will keep in the threat of showers, some heavier with visibility restrictions. Guidance has trended more optimistic with ceilings as the showers roll through, and this is supported by upstream observations as well. Kept most sites out of fuel alt levels with this set of TAFs. Showers will move out shortly after dawn, with VFR conditions returning. West winds will increase later this morning and afternoon, with gusts around 25 knots possible. Additional showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as another upper level disturbance rolls across northern NY, and a weak cold front pushes southward into the area. A few stronger thunderstorms are possible, mainly after 20Z. Coverage is questionable, and for now left thunder out of the TAFs, though PROB30s may be added later for SYR and RME. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region, especially Thursday-Friday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...ES/MPH