Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Boston, MA
000
FNUS71 KBOX 190743
FWSBOX
Spot Forecast for Muddy Brook WMA...MassWildlife
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
343 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on March 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service.
.DISCUSSION...
A low threat of fire weather today, with dry air and gusty west
winds. More improvement Wednesday, as frontal system approaches,
yielding scattered rain showers and light winds.
Minimum relative humidities range from 25 to 35 percent Tuesday and
35 to 45 percent Wednesday.
.OUTLOOK...Thursday through Monday...
Strong low pressure over Maine moves into Nova Scotia Thursday,
providing gusty west winds across MA, RI and CT. High pressure
builds into New England Friday, providing dry weather and light
winds. Wet weather may impact the region Friday night into Saturday.
Dry weather may return Sunday.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming partly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 43.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Dewpoint............20 decreasing to 16 early.
Min apparent temp...19.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (124600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (126700
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................10 increasing to 52 early in the morning, then
increasing to 70 early decreasing to 56 to 63
late in the morning increasing to 67 to 72.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......2.0 increasing to 5.0 early in the morning,
then decreasing to 2.5 early decreasing to 2.0
late in the morning increasing to 2.5
increasing to 5.0 early decreasing to 0.8.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4 5 7 9 3 1 3 9 30 48 57 65
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............28 29 29 31 33 36 38 39 40 41 41 41
Dewpoint........22 22 20 19 18 17 16 15 15 15 16 17
RH..............78 75 69 61 53 45 40 37 36 34 36 37
Heat index (F)..19 20 19 21 23 27 29 31 32 33 33 34
20 FT wind dir..W W NW NW NW W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..10 10 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13
20 FT wind gust.20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 22 21 20
Surface wnd dir.W W NW NW NW W W W W W W W
Surface wnd spd.10 10 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13
Surface wnd gst.20 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 23 22 21 20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.4 5.0 5.5 6.1 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.5
Transp wind dir.W W NW NW NW NW W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.15 17 21 21 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 20
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............10 52 70 56 63 67 70 69 71 72 69 69
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 41 60 70 84 95 105 110 120 125 122 127
Ventrate Cat....PR FR GD GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
Ceiling (kft)...2.0 5.0 2.5 2.0 2.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 0.8 0.8
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy then
becoming mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 29.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............18 increasing to 24 around midnight.
Min apparent temp...24.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 6 to 10 mph shifting to the
southwest 7 to 8 mph around midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 mph shifting to the
southwest 7 to 8 mph around midnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 15 mph shifting to the southwest 7 to
8 mph around midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (67800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................14 to 20 decreasing to 5 to 7 until just after
midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......0.8 increasing to 2.5 early in the evening,
then decreasing to 0.8 early increasing to 1.5
increasing to 5.0 increasing to 25 after
midnight decreasing to 5.0 increasing to 25
early in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........63 73 99 89 46 66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............39 35 34 33 32 31
Dewpoint........17 19 20 23 25 25
RH..............40 52 56 66 75 78
Heat index (F)..32 30 28 27 25 24
20 ft wind......W 10 W 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 SW 7
20 ft wind gust.17 12 13 14 14 13
Surface wind....W 10 W 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8 SW 7
Surface wnd gst.17 12 13 14 14 13
Mix hgt (ft)....5200 700 600 400 400 400
Transport wind..W 15 W 7 SW 7 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8
LVORI...........2 2 3 3 4 4
ADI.............20 5 5 5 7 5
Haines index....3 3 4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..68 4 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...0.8 0.8 1.5 25 25 25
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Slight chance of rain early in
the afternoon. Chance of rain late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 16 percent late in the
afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Dewpoint............27.
Min apparent temp...24.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
west around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 16 mph shifting to the
west around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph shifting to the west 20
to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (84400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (105300
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 to 11 increasing to 85 to 88.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 0.8 early in the morning, then
increasing to 5.0 early increasing to 6.0 late
in the morning increasing to 7.0 decreasing to
6.0 early in the afternoon decreasing to 5.0
increasing to 6.0 late in the afternoon
increasing to 7.0.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........71 63 66 67
Weather cov..... S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RAIN
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 20
Temp............31 36 44 47
Dewpoint........26 28 27 26
RH..............81 72 51 43
Heat index (F)..24 30 38 41
20 FT wind......SW 7G14 SW 8G16 SW 12G20 W 15G24
Surface wind....SW 7G14 SW 8G16 SW 12G20 W 15G24
Mix hgt (ft)....500 2300 6200 7600
Transport wind..SW 9 SW 15 W 20 W 23
LVORI...........4 3 1 1
ADI.............6 31 65 82
Haines index....3 3 3 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 30 105 153
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT
Ceiling (kft)...25 6.0 6.0 6.0
$$
Forecaster...Dooley
Requested by...Alex Entrup
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407377.0/BOX
.DELDT 03/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov