934
FXUS61 KBTV 161725
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
125 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary boundary remains over our region today with some
scattered light rain showers. The forecast trends drier to close
out the week. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward,
with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week
expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1003 AM EDT Thursday...Cloud cover has been stubborn this
morning but satellite imagery is showing hints that we are on
the verge of some partly sunny skies. Temperatures with this
update have trended a little cooler as the current cloud cover
has inhibited temperatures while afternoon convection should
limit additional heating this afternoon. Chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon remain very low as equilibrium
heights of 14000 ft and equilibrium temperatures of -8 degrees
C do not support the ice nucleation needed for lightning.

Previous Discussion...Weak stationary boundary will remain in
place today, leading to some scattered light rain showers
possible for most of the day. Front will finally shift south and
east of the region tonight, and drier weather will return for
tonight and Friday. Some ridging begins to work into the region
today, therefore don`t expect as many showers today as the past
couple days. High temperatures today will range from the upper
60s to mid 70s. Could see some fog development again overnight,
but shouldn`t be as widespread as this morning since we`ll be a
day removed from the heavier precipitation and ridging will help
us start to dry out. A dry and pleasant day is expected for
Friday with high temperatures a good 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal normals as maximum temperatures reach the lower to
upper 70s. Will have increasing chances for showers late in the
day in our far western zones with next approaching system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...Deterministic guidance continues to
be split in regard to precipitation chances for Friday night
through Saturday with notable differences seen in the track of a
mid-level shortwave trough. Drier solutions track this feature
north of the international border, while the wetter ones dip the
track across northern portions of the North Country and
Vermont. Ensemble members seem to lean more towards the wetter
solutions so have bumped PoPs a bit into the 40- 60% range
across the North Country with lower chances of 20-30% across
northern VT. A few rumbles of thunder additionally can`t be
ruled out Friday night, though mainly in the St. Lawrence
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...A significant warming trend is then
expected for the latter half of the weekend through at least
Tuesday as guidance continues to trend towards a stronger
mid/upper level ridge building across the Northeast. Ensemble
probabilities of max temps greater than 75 degrees increase each
day from 60-80% of the members on Sunday, to 70-90% for Monday
and Tuesday with 2/3rds of members showing potential for highs
greater than 80 degrees in the wider valleys. The good news is
that dewpoints don`t look to be particularly high, only in the
50s, so humidity should be relatively comfortable. The next
chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Wednesday with the
potential for a strong frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are being observed and are
expected to continue through the TAF period. While fog has been
observed the past several nights, the likelihood of fog is much
lower than previous nights. Light northerly winds this afternoon
will go light and variable overnight and ultimately shift to the
south at 5-10 knots Friday morning. A few showers will be around
this afternoon but are expected to dodge our TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Clay