747
FXUS61 KBTV 041053
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
653 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region today and will bring one more
day of dry and mild weather. Widespread rainfall returns for
Sunday, and some isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible,
particularly over northern New York. A period of warmer and sunnier
conditions are expected for the start of the week, with more
unsettled weather returning by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 647 AM EDT Saturday... A few rain showers are currently
over the North Country but they should fall apart in the next
couple hours. Had to increase PoPs slightly as they made it a
little farther east than expected. Thick cloud cover has
enveloped the region overnight but it should at least partially
break during the day. Overall, the forecast is in relatively
good shape so there were only a few edits made. Previous
discussion follows...

Previous Discussion...An occluded front is currently decaying
as it is moving across the North Country due to a stubborn ridge of
high pressure over the region. The front has been able to bring a
couple showers to northern New York, but those should mostly fall
apart before they reach Vermont. Light southeasterly flow is helping
to advect a cooler maritime airmass into areas east of the Greens
and it is creating a relatively sharp temperature gradient tonight.
Lows east of the greens will be in the 40s but the in the Champlain
and St. lawrence Valleys, temperatures will only fall into the mid
to upper 50s. Any showers over northern New York should fall apart
by daybreak so Saturday will be a mostly dry day. Some high clouds
will linger into the day but they should be thin enough to allow a
decent amount of sunshine, particularly over Vermont. Temperatures
will climb into the 60s to around 70, very similar to yesterday.
Another front slowly moves across the region Saturday night into
Sunday, and with some connection to gulf moisture, it will bring
more meaningful precipitation. Most areas should see up to around a
half inch of rain so there are no flooding concerns. Some elevated
instability should develop during the day on Sunday, particularly
over northern New York, so some thunderstorms and heavier convective
showers are possible. However, there is no severe threat. A
southerly low-level jet will pass over the region on Sunday and will
cause some channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Winds could gust
up to 30 kts over Lake Champlain. However, winds will be limited by
the water temperatures being colder than the air and by the
strongest winds occurring when the precipitation is falling. These
two factors will limit the ability for the stronger winds to mix
down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Widespread rain showers will be ongoing
Sunday night as a frontal boundary moves across the region. Although
it won`t be all that much colder behind the front, the incoming
airmass will be much drier, so expect showers will rapidly come to
an end by early Monday morning. Another weak surface trough will
move through Monday afternoon, which may allow a few additional
showers to develop, but any activity would be isolated and very
light in nature given the dry air that will be in place. Ridging
spreads into the area Monday night, keeping conditions dry. Monday`s
highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest
conditions occurring where sun can break through the clouds. Lows
both Sunday night and Monday night will mostly be in the 40s, though
Sunday will be more in the mid 40s to around 50F, while Monday night
will be a little cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be dry as we remain under
the influence of ridging, but then precipitation chances will
increase by Wednesday and continue through the remainder of the week
as several waves move through the nearly zonal flow aloft, and
eventually around a developing upper trough centered to our north.
Exact timing and placement of these waves and associated
precipitation is difficult to pinpoint at this juncture, but expect
every day through the latter half of the week to have at some chance
of showers. Instability doesn`t look all that impressive, though a
few rumbles of thunder may be possible Wednesday over western
sections of northern NY, and perhaps far southern VT on Thursday.
Tuesday will be the warmest day under lots of sunshine; highs will
be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Things should cool down slightly
thereafter, though exactly how much will depend on exact timing and
placement of shower activity and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions should persist through the
entire TAF period though moist southeast flow could cause ceilings
at MPV to lower to MVFR Saturday night. A few light showers are
possible tonight at MSS and SLK but they will not be heavy enough to
cause any visibility concerns. Wind shear has either met LLWS
criteria or is very close to meeting it at all the terminals. The
wind shear should continue for the rest of the night before lowering
during the day. Winds will be relatively consistent through the
entire TAF period, generally light from the southeast though MSS
should be light out of the northeast.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski