748
FXUS61 KCAR 081014
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
614 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will approach today and track through the Gulf
of Maine tonight. Low pressure systems will track well to our
south Thursday and again Friday as high pressure builds to our
north. An upper level trough of low pressure will remain over
the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:12 AM Update...Forecast remains on track with some high clouds
beginning to stray into the area early this morning. Only minor
change was to lower temps in some of the colder northern
valleys this morning which dipped below freezing overnight.

Previous discussion
This morning will begin mostly sunny across the north as clouds
begin to increase over southern areas. Clouds will increase
across the rest of the area today as weak low pressure supported
by a shallow shortwave approaches from the Great Lakes region.
Rain will begin to spread into southern areas around midday then
gradually push north during the afternoon. Forecast models are
in good agreement on a light rain across the area. The highest
amounts, of a quarter to a half inch, will be over central areas
with amounts likely under a tenth of an inch across the north
and a quarter inch Downeast through tonight as the low center
tracks to our south. Rain will continue through the evening then
taper off to showers late tonight as low pressure, tracking
through the Gulf of Maine, continues east, passing south of Nova
Scotia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A positively tilted upper level trough will sit over the area
Thursday, maintaining northeasterly flow and enough lift for
shower development through the day. The northeasterly flow will
downslope off of the higher terrain in New Brunswick, which
could keep northeastern Aroostook relatively dry with this
system. Downsloping may also help temperatures remain close to
average for this time of the year despite the cloud cover and
scattered rain showers. Highs on Thursday may reach into the
upper 50s across the northeast, but only into the lower 50s
further south.

The upper level trough axis will begin to pivot through the area
through Thursday night into the day on Friday as the trough
becomes neutrally tilted. From here, there are split solutions
on what will happen to the upper level pattern. The Canadian
guidance still holds onto the chance for a cutoff low that would
maintain a wetter pattern for the state, while the Euro has
jumped on board with other guidance to weaken the primary upper
level low as the next shortwave over the Great Lakes begins to
pick up energy. At the surface, this would result in a surface
low passing well south of the Gulf of Maine, with the primary
threat for measurable rainfall being Downeast, but even then
forecast rain amounts are light due to the separation from the
center of the lift and moisture. With northeast flow continuing,
high temperatures on Friday may reach into the upper 50s in
areas of downsloping, and lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A generally unsettled pattern continues through the weekend and
into early next week. Aloft, the next shortwave wraps into the
New England region, pulling the new axis of the upper level
trough neutrally tilted aloft through the region. With this
primary source of lift, there is likely to be diurnally-driven
rain showers each afternoon, even if the primary surface low
misses the area to the south once more. That said, there is
still uncertainty in the strength of the high pressure to the
north through this time, and a weaker high pressure could allow
for more rainfall to move into the area. In comparing ensemble
guidance with climatology through early next week, no strong
signals exist, so the forecast does not stray far from
climatology through this time period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR this morning, lower to MVFR across the south this afternoon
and remaining VFR over the north. Light SE wind. MVFR to IFR
tonight. Light E wind.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR across the north, with MVFR/IFR early at Downeast
terminals before cigs lift to VFR through the day. -SHRA early
in the north, lasting through the day Downeast. Patchy fog
possible early Thursday, especially south of KPQI. NE winds 5 to
10 kts.

Thursday night...VFR across all terminals, and a slight chance
for rain showers Downeast. Light NE winds around 5 kts.

Friday...VFR conditions likely across all terminals, with rain
showers possible through the day, though most likely across the
Downeast region. Winds NE at 5 to 10 kts, and gusts briefly near
20 kts at Downeast terminals Fri afternoon.

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR, with occasional MVFR
cigs possible. A chance of rain showers. N to NE winds around 5
to 10 kts.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR early, with IFR likely in any rain, especially
Downeast. Winds 5 to 10 kts could shift SE depending on the
track of the storm.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
Winds will be light and seas will around 2 to 3 ft today and
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will generally remain below small
craft advisory criteria through the extended. Wind gusts may
approach 25 kts on Thursday, and could exceed 25 kts briefly
through early Friday morning as a storm approaches south of the
Gulf of Maine. Seas may approach 5 ft this weekend. A chance for
rain showers continues through at least Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Bloomer/AStrauser
Marine...Bloomer/AStrauser