370
FXUS61 KCLE 021658
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1258 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue southeast across the eastern Great
Lakes today before a warm front advances north across the area
tonight. A low pressure system and cold front will enter the
region on Friday and be slow to exit until a stronger cold front
moves through on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The forecast for today and tonight continues to trend more
optimistic for a pleasant, fair weather day with rain chances
sliding further toward Friday. High pressure is building into
the region from the northwest behind a weak cold front. This
system will nestle into the eastern Great Lakes region with dew
points in the 40s and flow off Lake Erie for at least half of
the area. This should abate much in the way of cloud
development, let alone rain, and have a dry forecast for today.
High temperatures will be a bit of a dichotomy with near lake
areas staying cooler with seasonable highs in the 60s to lower
70s. Whereas, inland areas will continue with their streak of
above normal temperatures and 80s will be possible in spots.


A warm front will advance north tonight. However, this front
will struggle to do much in the region with the dry air mass in
place and poor upper level support with a ridge overhead. Some
mid-level clouds should enter and there could be an isolated
shower in Northwest Ohio. Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.
The better chance for rain will be toward daybreak on Friday and
through the day. A vorticity maximum will roll overhead through
the region and bring some better lift as a cold front and low
pressure system approach the area. These features will all be
slow to progress as the vorticity max will be forced up over the
upper ridge and the ridge will be a blocking feature to slow the
entire evolution of the system. With that, will slowly raise
PoPs and cloud cover through the day on Friday. Areas in the
eastern half of the forecast area could warm significantly
warmer than guidance with the slower system evolution and have
80s for highs with upper 70s to the west and near the lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled is going to be the best way to describe the pattern over
the short term forecast period. The Friday night period begins with
an ongoing cold front slow to exit through the CWA, held up by
surface wave of low pressure. High PWAT environment in low shear and
limited instability sets the stage for some heavy downpours moving
through, however, could get some longer residence time due to the
aforementioned surface low keeping the forward speed of the system
and convection on the slower side of things. The severe threat is
fairly low with an atmospheric column devoid of strong winds in any
layer despite some instability to work with and also absent of any
significant mid level drying to induce evaporative cooling induced
downdrafts. Weak high pressure follows the exit of the surface low,
but this will be short lived and will not necessarily hinder the
shower and storm threat carrying into the day Saturday. But the
severe threat is similar going into Saturday night with just not
enough shear in the column. A secondary cold front cuts through late
Saturday night into Sunday, which should finally take the
instability with it heading into the long term. Temperatures a
little cooler heading through the weekend, but still slightly above
normal for most, with Sunday being a couple degrees warmer with
pretty much all locations back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes begins the long term after frontal
passage. The cold front will have pushed southward into the Ohio
Valley, and then into Monday night push back northeastward as a warm
front. Showers and storms expected with this as the temperatures
come back up toward 80F for Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, an
upper level low will track from the Pacific northwest area eastward
into the northern plains region. Occluded system moves back in
midweek with drying late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low to mid
70s again Monday, warming back into the 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. Could see an isolated
shower/storm across NW OH this evening, but confidence remains
too low for TAF inclusion at TOL/FDY at this time. Confidence
increases in thunderstorm chances overnight into Friday morning
out west, so have included vcts at TOL/FDY in this update. Did
include vcts mention starting at 19Z Friday for CLE since
widespread convection is expected to develop at or after 18Z
Friday. At the very minimum, think at least vcts mention will
be needed across the eastern TAF sites in the next update.

Winds are generally out of the east to northeast early this
afternoon, 10 knots or less. Winds will gradually shift more
towards the southeast overnight, becoming south, 10 knots or
less, as a warm front lifts north across the area Friday
morning into the early afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon through Sunday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
East winds 10-15kts bring 1-2ft waves in the central/western basin
of Lake Erie before becoming southeasterly by early Friday. Winds
largely variable through the weekend with a couple frontal systems
cutting through the lake, but for the most part, wave heights will
be less than 2ft through Tuesday despite chances for showers and
thunderstorms through much of the period.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...26