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000
FXUS64 KCRP 140518
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Upper-level ridging will dominate the forecast, with surface high
pressure moving to the east. Southeasterly winds will continue
through Sunday with warm, moist air streaming into South Texas.
High temperatures will reach into the mid 90s across the Brush
Country with those along the coast remaining in the 80s.

A surface low will move over the Rockies through early next week,
tightening the pressure gradient. This will lead to continued
breezy conditions through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Windy conditions Monday with a low to medium (20-40%) chance of
Wind Advisory criteria of frequent wind gusts greater than 40 mph

▶ Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Monday through
Thursday

Cyclogenesis on the Lee side of the Rockies on Monday will lead to a
tightening pressure gradient and a LLJ of 45-50 knots. This will
cause very strong winds Monday afternoon and evening, with sustained
winds of 25-30 mph and gusts around 40 mph, leading to a low to
medium (20-40%) chance of a Wind Advisory being needed.

The surface to mid-level low will then shift northeastward into the
Midwest through the middle of next week and push a weak frontal
boundary through the western half of Texas on Tuesday, currently not
anticipated to extend into South Texas. There is only a low (<20%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms north of our area along the
boundary.

A deepening trough on the back-end of the aforementioned low will
dive into northern Mexico and eventually push across Texas late in
the work week into the weekend. This will bring our next potential
cold front, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances returning
Thursday night into the weekend. Both the ECMWF and GFS are in good
agreement with a west-to-east oriented cold front pushing through
North Texas Thursday night, but then divert on the southern extent,
strength, and timing heading into the weekend. Significant moisture
(99th percentile) with PWATs around 1.75", combined with mid-level
PVA and a nearby frontal boundary, will set up favorable conditions
for rain chances. Timing is the greatest uncertainty and therefore
the low to medium chances reflect the confidence in a given period.

Persistent over 90th percentile 850-700mb temperatures will result
in a gradual warming trend through Thursday, with heat index values
around 100 over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Highs from
the mid 80s to upper 90s Tuesday through Thursday before declining
in response to the cold front, increase in cloud cover, and rain
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

ALI and VCT are currently sitting at MVFR, though our other
terminals are not far behind. MVFR conditions will return for all
terminals, minus LRD, by 10Z as southeast winds continue to
transport low level moisture inland. Improvement to VFR will occur
by late morning, once gusty southeasterly winds set in. Gusts
between 20-30 knots are expected by afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Moderate to strong southeasterly flow will continue into tonight
before weakening to moderate flow. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through 9 PM over the southern bays and nearshore waters.
Southeasterly winds will become strong Monday afternoon and
continue through Tuesday morning, resulting in Small Craft
Advisories. Moderate onshore flow Tuesday night will become weak
to moderate Wednesday through Thursday. A cold front will approach
from the north heading into the weekend, leading to moderate
northeasterly flow and low to medium chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    84  70  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          82  67  82  71 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            95  70  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             87  69  89  72 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          79  70  81  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           93  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        85  69  87  72 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  71  81  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...KRS/98