683
FXUS61 KCTP 010715
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
315 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Showers give way to clearing skies and some patchy fog tonight
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity Wednesday-Thursday
-Trending unsettled into the weekend with rain likely Sat/Sun

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
THe only lingering showers are across the Lower Susquehanna
Valley as of 10PM with all lightning activity now over. Showers
will move east of the forecast area by midnight with a dry night
expected areawide.

Clearing skies are working their way into western PA as the
cirrus deck associated with today`s weather system continues to
pull north and east of the region. Light winds and clear skies
will result in some patchy fog overnight thanks to a moisture-
rich airmass with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Best chance for
fog appears to be in the Laurel Highlands into Clearfield County
where dewpoint depressions are the smallest and clearing will
be most durable. Also can`t rule out some valley fog in the
deepest valleys of the northern tier that have the best chance
of decoupling, but the influx of drier air and lower dewpoints
may be a limiting factor.

Lows by Wednesday morning will range from the the middle 40s in
northwest PA to near 60 in the southeast where clouds will be
slow to clear overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest guidance continues to indicate warm/dry conditions
through midweek with a trend toward unsettled weather into the
weekend. Highs on Wednesday in the middle 70s to near 80 are +10
to +15 compared to average and Thursday will a few degrees
warmer for much of the Commonwealth. Dry air entrainment/mixing
heights combined with mostly sunny skies and mean westerly flow
all signal to cut dewpoints and raise temps by a few degrees
in-kind for both afternoons.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Easterly flow begins to take hold on Friday, as high pressure
noses down the eastside of the Appalachians. This should result
in cooler temperatures Friday, especially across eastern PA.
This setup could also favor low clouds into the middle and
lower Susquehanna Valley Friday night into Sat AM.

A frontal boundary will slowly make it`s way eastward from the
Midwest into the commonwealth Saturday into Sunday, accompanied
by an increasing chc of showers and storms.

Passage of the upper trough and associated front should bring
drier conditions by Monday of next week, before an approaching
warm front could bring a return of clouds and showers/storms on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low stratus has developed across the Laurel Highlands thanks to
a moist, upslope flow. Patchy valley fog has also developed
across much of north central PA, due to clearing skies, damp
ground and diminishing winds. These will be the primary concerns
through sunrise, with areas of locally LIFR vsby and cigs.
Farther to the west, drier air filtering in from the northwest
will work against the formation of fog.

Expect quick improvement areawide Wed morning, with building
high pressure providing mostly sunny skies and a W/NW sfc breeze
of 5-10 kts. VFR conds will prevail with only mid and upper
level clouds.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri AM...No sig wx expected.

Fri PM-Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA developing from west to east w/
reductions possible.

Sat night-Sun...Widespread SHRA/TSRA expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures were set at the following locations
on Monday:

SITE        2024 OBS     PRVS RECORD
Altoona          86F     83F (1956)
Bradford         82F     76F (1984)
Williamsport     89F     86F (1942/1974)

It was also the first 80F day in Bradford so far this year,
almost 2 weeks ahead of the average first 80F temperature (May
11th).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Gartner/Evanego
AVIATION...Evanego/Colbert
CLIMATE...Banghoff/Colbert